The Impact of Typhoons on Rice Production in Philippines

We quantify the impact that Typhoons have on the rice sector in Philippines. To this end we (1) detect local rice fields and their growing season in Philippines using satellite images, (2) calculate out local experienced typhoon wind speeds using a simple tropical storm model and typhoon track data, and (3) match local rainfall data from satellite measures during the typhoon. These data are then combined in a regression framework to estimate the impact of potential damages due to typhoon winds and excess rainfall on rice production and prices across provinces in Philippines. Simulated typhoon tracks allow us to derive a probability distribution of expected changes in the near future.