Program: 21st Conference on Applied Climatology (21st Conference on Applied Climatology/17th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation)

Program Chairs: Timothy W. Owen , NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC ; Barbara Mayes Boustead , NOAA/NWS ; Melissa L. Griffin , Florida State University

Reviewers: James R. Angel , ISWS ; Jon Gottschalck , NOAA/NWS ; Nancy Selover , Arizona State University ; Mark D. Svoboda , National Drought Mitigation Center

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Monday, 9 June 2014

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 9 June 2014

Registration Opens

Location: Westcliff B (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Tuesday, 10 June 2014

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Registration Continues Throughout the Conference

Location: Westcliff B (Denver Marriott Westminster)

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Joint Session 1

Introduction and Plenary

Location: Salon A-B (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Hosts: (Joint between the 21st Conference on Applied Climatology; and the 17th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation )

Speaker: William B. Gail, Global Weather Corp.

Cochairs: Timothy W. Owen, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC; Wendy A. Ryan, Wilson Water Group

8:30 AM

Opening Remarks — Timothy Owen and Wendy Ryan

8:45 AM

J1.1

AMS and Meteorology’s Future — William Gail (Invited Speaker)

9:15 AM

J1.2

Providing Regional Climate Services Across the North Central U.S. (Invited Presentation)

Doug R. Kluck, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Kansas City, MO; and D. P. Todey

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

J1.3

The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) (Invited Presentation)

Roger Pulwarty, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and L. S. Darby, J. Verdin, V. Deheza, C. Nierenberg, K. Bogan, C. McNutt, R. S. Webb, and K. T. Redmond

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

J1.4

New Paradigms of NOAA’s NWS Climate Services

Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Horsfall

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Coffee Break

Location: Ballroom Foyer (Denver Marriott Westminster)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Session 1

Climate Services and Communication

Location: Church Ranch (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Host: 21st Conference on Applied Climatology

Chair: Doug R. Kluck, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI

10:30 AM

1.1

Regional Climate Services Information Delivery under Climate Extremes — Webinar Series and Evaluation

Dennis P. Todey, South Dakota State Univ., Brookings, SD; and D. R. Kluck, T. Haigh, J. R. Angel, and B. Fuchs

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

1.2

From "Portal" to Drought.gov

Kathleen Bogan, National Integrated Drought Information System, Boulder, CO; and M. J. Brewer, L. Darby, V. Deheza, R. Pulwarty, R. Webb, and J. Verdin

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

1.3

ACIS Web Services: Efficient Access to Climate Data Products in Support of Climate Services

William A. Noon, Northeast Regional Climate Center, Ithaca, NY; and A. DeGaetano

11:15 AM

1.4

Services of the North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network to the Agricultural Sector

Fikri Adnan Akyuz, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND; and N. Bart, B. Mullins, D. Morlock, and D. Ritchison

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (197.1 kB)

Handout (3.0 MB)

11:30 AM

1.5

A Community Frost/Freeze Susceptibility Operational Guidance Tool

Beth L. Hall, ISWS/MRCC, Champaign, IL; and A. C. Curtis, M. S. Timlin, M. E. Woloszyn, S. D. Hilberg, P. Guinan, J. Andresen, R. A. Wolf, R. Shanklin, Z. A. Zaloudek, and P. J. Spoden

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

1.6

Climate Central – Climate Matters: A Climate Science Resource for TV Meteorologists

Bernadette Woods Placky, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Joint Session 2

U.S. Climate Reference Network: Science and Applications

Location: Salon A-B (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Hosts: (Joint between the 17th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; and the 21st Conference on Applied Climatology )

Chair: Michael Palecki, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI

1:30 PM

J2.1

Conclusions from the SMAP Marena Oklahoma In Situ Soil Moisture Testbed (SMAP-MOISST) (Invited Presentation)

Michael Cosh, USDA/ARS, Beltsville, MD; and T. E. Ochsner, J. Basara, S. R. Evett, E. E. Small, J. Selker, S. C. Steele-Dunne, and M. Zreda

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

J2.2

Validating USCRN Soil Observations with a Dense Temporary Soil Monitoring Network

Jesse E. Bell, CICS/North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and M. Cosh and M. E. Hall

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

J2.3

Extending the Soil Moisture Record of the Climate Reference Network with Machine Learning (Invited Presentation)

Evan Coopersmith, USDA/ARS, Beltsville, MD; and J. E. Bell and M. Cosh

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

J2.4

Drought at Seen Through the Prism of Soil Moisture Observations

Michael Palecki, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI, Asheville, NC; and J. E. Bell and R. G. Bilotta

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

J2.5

Evaluating the In-Situ Soil Water Budget at USCRN Sites Using Soil and Climate Data

Timothy B. Wilson, NOAA/ERL/ARL/ATDD, Oak Ridge, TN

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

J2.6

Quantifying Uncertainty and Biases in Automated Precipitation Measurements

John Kochendorfer, NOAA, Oak Ridge, TN; and C. B. Baker, T. P. Meyers, M. E. Hall, S. Landolt, R. M. Rasmussen, A. Jachcik, and M. Wolff

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Coffee Break

Location: Ballroom Foyer (Denver Marriott Westminster)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Panel Discussion 1

Climate Communication

Location: Church Ranch (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Host: 21st Conference on Applied Climatology

Moderator: Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS

Panelists: Robert Henson, UCAR; John Calderazzo, Colorado State University ; Bernadette Woods Placky, Climate Central; Max Boykoff, CIRES Center for Science and Technology Policy

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Formal Poster Viewing and Ice Breaker Reception

Location: Salon C (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Poster Session

Location: Salon C (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Host: 21st Conference on Applied Climatology

Mid-Latitude Cyclones Climatology over Caspian Sea Southern Coasts – North of Iran

Mohsen Soltani, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; and P. Zawar-Reza, F. Khoshakhlagh, and I. Rousta

Manuscript (232.3 kB)

Precipitation Pattern in Cape Verde Islands: Santiago Island Case Study

Variability in the Length of Frost-Free Periods in the Conterminous US during the Past Century

Gregory J. McCabe, USGS, Denver, CO; and J. L. Betancourt and S. Feng

Can a Narrative Framework Effectively Communicate Climate and Weather Concepts?

Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and L. M. Pytlik-Zillig, K. G. Hubbard, and M. D. Shulski

Handout (1.8 MB)

A Dew Point and Relative Humidity Atlas for the Midwest

Kayla R. Novak, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and A. C. Curtis and M. S. Timlin

Guidance for Freeze Warnings: Mapping Potential Freeze Susceptibility versus Forecast Freezing Temperatures

Michael S. Timlin, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and S. D. Hilberg, Z. A. Zaloudek, and B. L. Hall

Handout (1.3 MB)

Challenges in Mapping Daily Temperature and Precipitation across the Conterminous United States

Matthew Doggett, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and C. Daly and J. Smith

Wednesday, 11 June 2014

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 11 June 2014

Session 2

Climate Trends and Extremes

Location: Church Ranch (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Host: 21st Conference on Applied Climatology

Chair: James R. Angel, ISWS

2.1

U.S. Regional Climate Change: Key findings from the National Climate Assessment

8:15 AM

2.2

Climate Change Evaluation of the Missouri River Basin Mountain Snowpack Accumulation and Runoff

Kevin R. Grode, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Omaha, NE; and W. P. Doan, K. D. Stamm, B. Mayes Boustead, S. Rossi, T. Perkins, and D. P. Todey

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

2.3

When Normal Isn't Good Enough: Surface Water and Runoff Along the Colorado River of Western and Central Texas

John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.1 MB)

8:45 AM

2.4

Observed Trends in the Great Plains Low-Level Jet and Associated Precipitation Changes in Relation to Recent Droughts

Daniel Barandiaran, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and S. Y. Wang and K. A. Hilburn

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

2.5

Identifying Extreme Precipitation Hotspots in the Changing Climate

Shih-Yu Wang, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and R. Gillies and R. Davies

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

2.6

Trends in Tornado Vulnerability across the United States

Charles E. Konrad II, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Chapel Hill, NC; and C. M. Fuhrmann and M. M. Kovach

9:30 AM

2.7

Australian National Wind Risk Assessment (NWRA): Quantifying wind hazard and risk under current and future climate

R.P. Cechet, University of New South Wales, Canberra, Australia; and W. C. Arthur, L. A. Sanabria, and T. Yang

9:45 AM

2.8

Climatological Analysis of ENSO and AO Impacts on Temperature and Precipitation across the U.S. Corn Belt 1980-2010

Olivia Kellner, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and D. Niyogi

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 11 June 2014

Coffee Break Sponsored by Vaisala

Location: Salon C (Denver Marriott Westminster)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 11 June 2014

Session 3

Climate and Weather Connections

Location: Church Ranch (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Host: 21st Conference on Applied Climatology

Chair: Bernadette Woods Placky, Climate Central

10:30 AM

3.1

The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI)

Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and S. Hilberg, K. G. Hubbard, and M. D. Shulski

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

3.2

Overview and Impacts of the 3-4 October 2014 South Dakota Blizzard

Laura M. Edwards, South Dakota State University, Aberdeen, SD; and M. J. Bunkers, D. P. Todey, and J. Abatzoglu

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

3.3

The Impact of Typhoons on Rice Production in Philippines

Eric Strobl, Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France

Recorded Presentation

3.4

Vertical Structure of Migratory Anticyclones Affecting the Mediterranean

3.5

Conditioning General Extreme Value Distribution for Rainfall on Rainfall Dynamics

11:45 AM

3.6

The Climatological Relation Between Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) and Extreme Precipitation for the September 2013 Colorado Flooding Event

Jacola A. Roman, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson and S. Ackerman

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (490.5 kB)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 11 June 2014

Conference Luncheon

Location: Salon D (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Speaker: Matthew Kelsch, UCAR/COMET

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 11 June 2014

Joint Panel Discussion 1

Colorado Flooding 2013

Location: Salon A-B (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Hosts: (Joint between the 17th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; and the 21st Conference on Applied Climatology )

Moderators: Nolan J. Doesken, Colorado State University; Wendy A. Ryan, Wilson Water Group

Panelists: Kevin Houck, Colorado Water Conservation Board; Nezette Rydell, NOAA; Kevin Stewart, Urban Drainage and Flood Control District

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 11 June 2014

Coffee Break

Location: Salon C (Denver Marriott Westminster)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 11 June 2014

Panel Discussion 2

Climate Services Partners

Location: Church Ranch (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Host: 21st Conference on Applied Climatology

Moderator: Doug R. Kluck, NOAA/NESDIS/NCEI

Panelists: Justin Derner, USDA/ARS/NPA; Kristen B. Averyt, RISA/WWA; Beth L. Hall, ISWS/MRCC; Laura M. Edwards, South Dakota State University; Dennis P. Todey, South Dakota State Univ.

Thursday, 12 June 2014

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 12 June 2014

Session 4

Decision Support Services

Location: Church Ranch (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Host: 21st Conference on Applied Climatology

Chair: Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS

8:00 AM

4.1

The U2U Decision Support Tool for Corn Growing Degree Days

James R. Angel, ISWS, Champaign, IL; and D. P. Todey, R. Massey, M. Widhalm, L. L. Biehl, J. Andresen, D. Niyogi, C. Song, and B. Raub

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

4.2

Using Spatial Climate and Weather Data to Improve the Nation's Crop Insurance Program

Christopher Daly, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and C. Pancake, D. Keon, and K. Bryant

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

4.3

Identifying Heat Vulnerability through Temperature Thresholds in North Carolina

Margaret Kovach, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Chapel Hill, NC; and C. E. Konrad and C. M. Fuhrmann

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

4.4

Characteristics of West Nile Virus Predictive Models in Illinois

Nancy E. Westcott, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois, Champaign, IL

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

4.5

How Applied Climate Fits in with the Management of Wildfire Smoke Health Impacts

Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV; and N. Larkin and P. Lahm

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

4.6

The Effects of Extreme Heat on Human Health in North Carolina

Christopher M. Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Chapel Hill, NC; and M. Kovach and C. E. Konrad II

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

4.7

Analysis of Heat Impacts as Related to National Weather Service Extreme Heat Advisory and Warning Criteria in Eastern Iowa and Northwest Illinois

Ray A. Wolf, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA; and D. Sheets

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (550.9 kB)

9:45 AM

4.8

Temperature Continuity Study at the Historic Fort Collins, CO Weather Station

Wendy A. Ryan, Wilson Water Group, Glenwood Springs, CO; and N. J. Doesken

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 12 June 2014

Coffee Break

Location: Salon C (Denver Marriott Westminster)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 12 June 2014

Session 5

Climate Prediction

Location: Church Ranch (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Host: 21st Conference on Applied Climatology

Chair: Ray A. Wolf, NOAA/NWS

5.1

Recent Verification of CPC Operational Outlooks and New Activities

5.2

Predicting Soil Temperature from Climate Data and Weather Forecasts

11:00 AM

5.3

An important climate precursor towards anticipating major flood events in the Missouri River Basin

Shih-Yu Wang, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and K. Hakala, R. Gillies, and W. J. Capehart

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

5.4

Developing a waterspout forecast protocol for the Florida Keys wet season

Andrew Devanas, NOAA/NWS, Key West, FL; and K. B. Kasper and M. Bloemer

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

5.5

Forecasting prolonged inversion episodes in the Intermountain West out to one month

Robert Gillies, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and S. Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

5.6

What Can Be Learned From Folklore Climatology

Glen Conner, Western Kentucky Univ., Bowling Green, KY

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 12 June 2014

Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 12 June 2014

Joint Session 3

Drought Monitoring & Early Warning Systems

Location: Salon A-B (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Hosts: (Joint between the 17th Symposium on Meteorological Observation and Instrumentation; and the 21st Conference on Applied Climatology )

Chair: James R. Angel, ISWS

1:30 PM

J3.1

Building an Enhanced Drought Climatology Decision Support Tool: The Drought Risk Atlas

Mark D. Svoboda, National Drought Mitigation Center, Lincoln, NE; and B. Fuchs, C. Poulsen, J. Nothwehr, and S. Owen

1:45 PM

J3.2

Temporal Interpolation of the Standardized Precipitation Index between Accumulation Intervals and Ending Dates for Computational Efficiency in the Dynamic Drought Index Tool

Arthur T. DeGaetano, Northeast Regional Climate Center, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and B. Belcher

2:00 PM

J3.3

NIDIS Upper Colorado Drought Early Warning System - Lessons learned

Wendy A. Ryan, Wilson Water Group, Glenwood Springs, CO; and R. Bolinger, N. J. Doesken, and Z. Schwalbe

2:15 PM

J3.4

Update on the NIDIS Drought Early Warning Information System for Coastal Ecosystems in the Carolinas

Lisa S. Darby, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and A. Brennan, P. Conrads, D. L. Tufford, K. Dow, K. Lackstrom, R. Pulwarty, R. S. Webb, and C. McNutt

2:30 PM

J3.5

The Challenges of Defining and Communicating Drought in the Pacific Northwest

Kathie D. Dello, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR; and M. Dalton and J. Stevenson

2:45 PM

J3.6

Little Drought on the Prairie

Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 12 June 2014

Coffee Break

Location: Salon C (Denver Marriott Westminster)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 12 June 2014

Panel Discussion 3

Drought in 2013-14

Location: Church Ranch (Denver Marriott Westminster)

Host: 21st Conference on Applied Climatology

Moderator: Mark D. Svoboda, National Drought Mitigation Center

Panelists: Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS; Lisa S. Darby, NOAA; Justin Derner, USDA/ARS/NPA; Kathie Dello, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute; Ray A. Wolf, NOAA/NWS