Guidance for Freeze Warnings: Mapping Potential Freeze Susceptibility versus Forecast Freezing Temperatures

The Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) has created a project to provide guidance products for frost and freeze warnings. The project evolved from monitoring of the dates of the first fall freeze and the last spring freeze in the Midwest. Over the past several years the project has widened both in spatial domain, to cover the continental US, and in the variety of guidance products available. In order to provide a quick overview of the areas where further scrutiny by human forecasters is warranted, a product has been in development to identify those areas that may be susceptible to freeze impacts. In areas where this product and the NWS forecasts of freezing temperatures overlap in the coming days, further analysis of the situation by human forecasters would determine if frost or freeze warnings are appropriate in that situation. Potential freeze susceptibility has been tracked during the 2013/2014 season allowing evaluation of the product compared to freeze warnings issued by the NWS and determine how to best identify areas with potential freeze impacts in upcoming seasons.