Using Standard Anomaly and Ensemble Data to Support Forecast Confidence of an Extreme Wind Event in the Pacific Northwest on December 14-15 2006

This poster session will present methodology described in a recent NWS Western Region TA Lite by the same author. The TA Lite is "Using Standard Anomaly and Ensemble Data to Support Forecast Confidence of an Extreme Wind Event in the Pacific Northwest on December 14-15, 2006". The author aims to advertise how using forecast standard anomaly data of the operational GFS and SREF ensemble, in combination with the ensemble mean and spread forecasts can be utilized to identify the climatological severity and potential impact of weather events. Derivation and availability of the standard anomaly data will be discussed, in addition to current availability and range of ensemble data in NWS operations. In particular, the methodology is applied to the December 14-15, 2006 event.