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Sunday, 24 June 2007

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5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 24 June 2007


Registration Opens
Location: Executive Boardroom (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)

Monday, 25 June 2007

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

6:00 AM-11:55 PM: Monday, 25 June 2007


Mon 25 June

7:30 AM-5:00 PM: Monday, 25 June 2007


Registration Continues through Friday 29 June
Location: Executive Boardroom (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)

8:45 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 25 June 2007


Joint Session 1
Introduction & Modeling Overview
Location: Summit AB (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chairs: John Horel, University of Utah; Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
8:45 AM
J1.1
Opening remarks
Recorded presentation

9:00 AM
J1.2
Views on the Current and future Forecast Enterprise: An NCEP Perspective
Louis Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
Recorded presentation

9:30 AM
J1.3
Next-generation numerical weather prediction in the U. S. Navy
Simon W. Chang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and V. C. Addison Jr.

9:45 AM
J1.4
An overview of NRL's atmospheric global modeling and research
C. A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. K. Flatau, J. Hansen, T. F. Hogan, Y. J. Kim, R. Langland, J. G. McLay, M. S. Peng, and J. A. Ridout
Recorded presentation

10:00 AM
J1.5
Improvement of the precipitation processes in the JMA high-resolution global NWP model and Its impact study for tropical cyclone cases
Takuya Komori, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Tokyo, Japan
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.3 MB)

10:15 AM-10:45 AM: Monday, 25 June 2007


Coffee Break
Location: Summit C (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 25 June 2007


Joint Session 2
High-Impact Weather
Location: Summit AB (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: John Horel, University of Utah
10:45 AM
J2.1
Defining High-Impact Weather—or Not?
Ron McPherson, AMS, Boston, MA
Recorded presentation

11:15 AM
J2.2
Evidence of Culture Change in Meteorology—Actions of Weather and Society * Integrated Studies Participants
Eve Gruntfest, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO
Recorded presentation

11:30 AM
J2.3
Legal Implications of Forecasting
Marsha L. Baum, University of New Mexico School of Law, Albuquerque, NM

Presentation PDF (32.3 kB)

11:45 AM
J2.4
The Greensburg, KS Tornado
Daniel McCarthy, NOAA/NWS, SPC, Norman, OK
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (492.2 kB)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 25 June 2007


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 25 June 2007


Joint Session 3
Modeling Systems
Location: Summit AB (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
1:30 PM
J3.1
An ESMF framework for NCEP operational models
Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang, W. Y. Yang, and M. Iredell
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (54.5 kB)

1:45 PM
J3.2
An ESMF unified nonhydrostatic model for a broad range of spatial and temporal scales
Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. L. Black

2:00 PM
J3.3
A high-resolution prediction capability using NRL's mesoscale modeling system
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, R. Hodur, T. Holt, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. Nachamkin, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang

2:15 PM
J3.4
From the Radar-enhanced RUC to the WRF-based Rapid Refresh
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, J. M. Brown, T. G. Smirnova, D. Devenyi, K. J. Brundage, G. A. Grell, S. Peckham, T. W. Schlatter, T. L. Smith, and G. S. Manikin

Presentation PDF (367.3 kB)

2:30 PM
J3.5
Upgrade of the operational JMA mesoscale model and implementation of improved Mellor-Yamada Level 3 scheme
Tabito Hara, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Tokyo, Japan

Presentation PDF (1.5 MB)

2:45 PM
J3.6
Towards an operational 1km limited area model by using variable resolution
Andrew J. Malcolm, Met Office, Exeter, Devon, United Kingdom

Presentation PDF (317.3 kB)

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 25 June 2007


Coffee Break
Location: Summit C (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)

3:30 PM-4:30 PM: Monday, 25 June 2007


Joint Session 4
Modeling Systems II
Location: Summit AB (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jennifer Alexander, Air Force Weather Agency
3:30 PM
J4.1
NWP Goes to War…
David R. Stauffer, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and A. Deng, G. K. Hunter, A. M. Gibbs, J. R. Zielonka, K. Tinklepaugh, and J. Dobek

Presentation PDF (2.2 MB)

3:45 PM
J4.2
12 Years of NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) System from 1995 to 2006
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego, J. McQueen, Z. Toth, S. Tracton, B. Zhou, D. Jovic, G. Manikin, B. Ferrier, E. Rogers, H. Juang, H. Y. Chuang, D. Stensrud, S. J. Weiss, R. H. Grumm, P. Manousos, and S. Silberberg

4:00 PM
J4.3
Improved Probabilistic Predictions through Bayesian Post-Processing and Bias Correcton
Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. A. Baars, A. E. Raftery, and T. Gneiting

4:15 PM
J4.4
DART: A community tool for ensemble data assimilation research and development
Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and N. Collins, T. Hoar, H. Liu, and K. Raeder

4:30 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 25 June 2007


Poster Viewing with Reception
Location: Summit C (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)

4:35 PM-6:30 PM: Monday, 25 June 2007


Poster Session 1
Monday Poster Viewing
Location: Summit C (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
P1.1
On the col structure associated with winter traveling disturbances across the Caribbean and its effect over northern South America
Gerardo de J. Montoya Gaviria, National University of Colombia, Bogota, Colombia

P1.2
Preliminary study on the causes and decay of severe drought in a century in the Sichuan Basin, China

P1.3
Assessing the Regional Model ETA-15km and Wind Anomalies to Forecast Central Andes Winter Snowstorms
Maximiliano Viale, Instituto Argentino de Nivologia, Glaciologia y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA - CONICET), 5500 Mendoza, Mendoza, Argentina; and F. A. Norte

P1.4
VISITView as a briefing tool for high impact weather events
Jon W. Zeitler, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and M. Oliver, M. Fox, J. T. Bradshaw, and P. Kirkwood

Handout (33.3 kB)

P1.5
What's New in NWP Training at COMET?
William R. Bua, UCAR, College Park, MD; and S. D. Jascourt and D. A. Wesley

Handout (476.8 kB)

P1.6
Defining the impact of weather
Patrick J. McCarthy, MSC, Winnipeg, MB, Canada

Handout (188.8 kB)

P1.7
Decision making by Austin, Texas, residents in hypothetical tornado scenarios
David M. Schultz, University of Helsinki and Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland; and E. Gruntfest, C. Benight, S. D. Drobot, L. R. Barnes, and M. H. Hayden

P1.8
Poster P1.8 has been moved. New Paper number 6A.1A

P1.9
Questions about applications of the ageostrophic wind and quasi-geostrophic theory in education and forecasting
Paul Nutter, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO

P1.10
Poster P1.10 has been moved. New Paper number 6A.3A

P1.11
High impact gridded weather forecasts
Steven A. Amburn, NWS, Tulsa, OK; and S. F. Piltz, J. B. McGavock, and J. M. Frederick

Handout (2.9 MB)

P1.12
Employing weather derivatives to assess the economic value of high-impact weather forecasts out to ten days - indicating a commercial application
Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Handout (215.9 kB)

P1.13
Weather and Radar Processor (WARP) Optimal Mosaic Evaluation
Jeffrey A. Weinrich, Actionet Inc., Atlantic City, NJ; and M. Printy

P1.14
Forecast Issues Related to the Unprecedented Severe and High Wind Event of December 1, 2006
Gregory A. DeVoir, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. H. Grumm

Handout (1013.8 kB)

P1.15
A nocturnal cold season mountain wave heavy precipitation event over the lee slopes of the Wind River Mountains of Wyoming
Charles M. Baker, NOAA/NWSFO, Riverton, WY; and B. E. McDonald

Handout (2.5 MB)

P1.16
The Overton Marina Move – A Benign Weather High Impact Event
Kim Runk, NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO

Handout (317.3 kB)

P1.17
Investigating specific event types in the western U.S utilizing standardized anomalies
Randy Graham, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and R. Grumm

P1.18
Analysis of IC and CG Lightning with Winter Precipitation
Brian Pettegrew, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market, R. L. Holle, and N. W. S. Demetriades

Handout (86.3 kB)

P1.19
New Years Eve wind event 2005: Radar analysis and damage assessment of relationship to slantwise convective circulations embedded along bent-back front
mel K. Nordquist, NOAA/NSSL, Eureka, CA; and B. Lutz, M. Burger, E. Lau, and C. Ciliberti (Presenter)

P1.20
An analysis of synoptic patterns associated with strong north Texas cold fronts during the 2005-06 cold season
Stacie Hanes, DOC/NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX; and G. R. Patrick

Handout (600.0 kB)

P1.21
Analyzing low-level jets in their large-scale environment: Issues involving the combination of operational and research observations during IHOP
Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and F. Caracena

Handout (399.0 kB)

P1.22
The 24 February 2007 North Texas dust storm: an impact weather event
Bernard N. Meisner, NWS Southern Region Headquarters, Fort Worth, TX; and J. A. Schultz

Handout (1.6 MB)

P1.23
Interactions between regional-scale circulations and local wind systems in the Owens Valley
Gregory West, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. Adamson, J. Andrews, S. Daines, N. Hosenfeld, R. Jackson, J. James, L. Jones, C. Kahler, L. Kowal, J. Krebs, S. Noble, M. Olson, N. Opperman, D. Otto, P. Staten, K. Tietze, D. T. Van Cleave, K. Van Peursem, L. Verzella, C. Wall, K. Westerman, Y. Zhao, S. Zhong, C. D. Whiteman, and W. J. Steenburgh

P1.24
Great Basin frontogenesis
Gregory West, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh and J. C. Shafer

P1.25
Frontal interaction with the Sierra Nevada as a precursor to intense frontogenesis over the Great Basin
Colby Neuman, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh and G. L. West

P1.26
Microburst Events in a Mountain Desert Environment
Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. Krippner and K. Sutkevich

P1.27
Forecasting Minimum Temperatures for Dugway Proving Ground
Carissa L. Klemmer, US Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, UT

P1.28
Identification of side-door/back-door cold fronts for fire weather forecasting applications
Joseph J. Charney, USDA Forest Service, East Lansing, MI; and R. P. Shadbolt and D. Keyser

P1.29
Poster P1.29 has been moved. New Paper number 3A.7A

P1.29A
Assessing the predictability of band formation and evolution during three recent northeast U.S. snowstorms
David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS/HPC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. A. Colle

Handout (809.8 kB)

P1.30
Mesoscale Elements of the December 14, 2006 West Palm Beach Flash Flood
Gordon Strassberg, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and P. Santos

Handout (2.5 MB)

P1.31
Heat waves in a hot place: Examination of intense heat episodes in the Phoenix Arizona metropolitan area during July 2003-2005-2006
G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWS, Phoenix, AZ

Handout (233.0 kB)

P1.32
The Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System. On-going system improvements and challenges
Manuel De Pondeca, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser, S. Y. Park, G. S. Manikin, D. F. Parrish, and G. DiMego

P1.33
Mesonet wind quality monitoring allowing assimilation in the RUC and other NCEP models
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Moninger, S. R. Sahm, and T. L. Smith

Handout (133.5 kB)

P1.34
The NWS Southern Region grid preparation policy: making a difference
G. Clay Anderson, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and J. W. Zeitler

Handout (112.4 kB)

P1.35
Applications of the NWS' Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
Lee Anderson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Colman, G. DiMego, G. E. Mann, and J. D. Horel

P1.36
Evaluation of the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) over complex terrain
Chad Kahler, NOAA/NWS, Western Region, Scientific Services Division, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. Myrick

Handout (556.0 kB)

P1.37
Sensitivity of Surface Analyses to Temporal Observational Constraints
Brian Olsen, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Horel

P1.38
Evaluation of Real-Time High-Resolution Forecasts for Monterey Bay
Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Doyle and Q. Jiang

P1.39
Monitoring High Impact Weather Events Using MesoWest
John D. Horel, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and B. Olsen, J. Pechmann, and C. Galli

P1.40
Winter storm simulations using a local mesoscale model
Andrew R. Kimball, NOAA/NWSFO, Wakefield, VA; and J. A. Billet

Handout (1.0 MB)

P1.41
Improvement of LAPS wind analysis by including background error statistics
Ok-Yeon Kim, Pukyung National University, Busan, Korea; and C. Lu, S. Albers, J. A. McGinley, and J. H. Oh

Handout (1.3 MB)

P1.42
The Impact of High-Resolution Surface Observations on Convective Storm Analysis with Ensemble Kalman Filter
Jili Dong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and K. Droegemeier

Handout (446.3 kB)

P1.43
Impact of abridged atmospheric data in mesoscale modeling
Christopher L. Franks, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and W. J. Capehart and M. R. Hjelmfelt

Handout (370.3 kB)

P1.44
The Issue of Data Density and Frequency with EnKF Radar Data Assimilation in a Compressible Nonhydrostatic NWP Model
Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma; and M. Xue

Handout (452.4 kB)

P1.45
Demonstration of Navy's operational dust storm forecasting for Southwest Asia
Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Westphal and A. L. Walker

P1.46
The value of Distributed Collaborative Adaptive Sensing (DCAS) for observing high impact weather: Preliminary results from CASA
J. A. Brotzge, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. D. Hondl

P1.47
Sensitivity of short range numerical weather prediction to data availability during NAME
John R. Wetenkamp Jr., South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and W. J. Capehart and M. R. Hjelmfelt

Handout (841.7 kB)

P1.48
Asynoptic high resolution upper-air data for high impact weather events
Jon W. Zeitler, NOAA/NWS, New Braunfels, TX; and P. G. Witsaman, S. Foster, W. C. Hoffmann, and B. K. Fritz

Handout (849.0 kB)

Tuesday, 26 June 2007

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

6:00 AM-11:55 PM: Tuesday, 26 June 2007


Tue 26 June

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 26 June 2007


Session 1A
Synoptic Systems
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: David M. Schultz, NOAA/NSSL and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma
8:00 AM
1A.1
Dynamical aspects of Euro-Atlantic Blockings during the winter 2005/06
Mischa Croci-Maspoli, ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; and H. C. Davies
Recorded presentation

8:15 AM
1A.2
Anticyclones cause high-impact weather too: A global anticyclone climatology and case studies
Matthew L. Doody, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser
Recorded presentation

8:30 AM
1A.3
Midlatitude-tropical intrusions and extrusions: territory invasion
Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart
Recorded presentation

8:45 AM
1A.4
Utilizing Standardized Anomalies to Assess Synoptic Scale Weather Events in the Western U.S
Randy Graham, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and R. H. Grumm
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (271.8 kB)

9:00 AM
1A.5
Meteorological characteristics and overland impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the West Coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations
Paul J. Neiman, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and F. M. Ralph, G. Wick, J. D. Lundquist, and M. D. Dettinger
Recorded presentation

9:15 AM
1A.6
Climatology of Strong Cold Fronts over the Western United States
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. C. Shafer

9:30 AM
1A.7
Major windstorms of the Pacific Northwest interior
Bri Dotson, University of Washingon, Seattle, WA; and C. Mass
Recorded presentation

9:45 AM
1A.8
The “Perfect Storms” of 1991: An example of linking high-impact weather and climate on intraseasonal time scale
Jason M. Cordeira, Univ. of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
Recorded presentation


Session 1B
Radar Data Assimilation
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma
8:00 AM
1B.1
High resolution assimilation of CASA X-band and NEXRAD radar data for thunderstorm forecasting
Keith A. Brewster, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. W. Thomas, J. Brotzge, Y. Wang, D. Weber, and M. Xue
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (623.3 kB)

8:15 AM
1B.2
Improving very short range prediction of high-impact weather using radar observations
Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, California; and J. Cook, Y. Jin, M. Frost, Q. Xu, P. R. Harasti, and S. Potts
Recorded presentation

8:30 AM
1B.3
Estimating radar wind observation error and NCEP WRF background wind error covariances from radar radial-velocity innovations
Qin Xu, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; and K. Nai, L. Wei, H. Lu, P. Zhang, S. Liu, and D. Parrish
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (817.7 kB)

8:45 AM
1B.4
Analysis and Prediction of 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Thunderstorm and Embedded Tornado using ARPS with Assimilation of WSR-88D Radar Data
Ming Hu, CAPS, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.0 MB)

9:00 AM
1B.5
The impact of radar data assimilation on a squall line in Mississippi
Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and Y. Li, E. Lim, Q. Xiao, C. M. Hill, and J. Sun
Recorded presentation

9:15 AM
1B.6
A multi-case study of ensemble-based assimilation of radar observations into cloud-resolving WRF using DART
Altug Aksoy, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Snyder and D. C. Dowell
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (828.1 kB)

9:30 AM
1B.7
Radar reflectivity-based initialization of precipitation systems using a diabatic digital filter within the Rapid Update Cycle
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.0 MB)

9:45 AM
1B.8
Assimilation of simulated polarimetric radar data using ensemble Kalman filter: Observation operators and data impact
Youngsun Jung, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, G. Zhang, and J. M. Straka
Recorded presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 26 June 2007


Coffee Break
Location: Summit C (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 26 June 2007


Session 2A
Winter Weather
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Brian A. Colle, SUNY
10:30 AM
2A.1
Predictability of windstorms and gravity waves forced by complex terrain: Perspectives from T-REX
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, Q. Jiang, and C. A. Reynolds

10:45 AM
2A.2
Experimental forecasts of mountain waves for the Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX)
Ligia R. Bernardet, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, GSD7 Boulder, CO; and B. Jamison, S. Koch, J. Brown, and J. Dudhia

Presentation PDF (2.1 MB)

11:00 AM
2A.3
Model initial condition sensitivity of downslope wind storms
P. Alexander Reinecke, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Durran

11:15 AM
2A.4
Forecast challenges and impacts of severe downslope wind events
Stanley Czyzyk, NOAA/NWSFO, Las Vegas, NV; and C. Bell

Presentation PDF (1.3 MB)

11:30 AM
2A.5
Initial analysis of model guidance for the Colorado Front Range barrage of snowstorms Nov. 2006-Feb. 2007
Douglas A. Wesley, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and R. A. Pielke Sr., S. D. Jascourt, W. Bua, D. Barjenbruch, E. Szoke, and G. Poulos

Presentation PDF (1.6 MB)

11:45 AM
2A.6
Evaluation of the NCEP WRF NMM and ARW models for some recent high-impact weather events
Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Koch, D. Barjenbruch, and D. A. Wesley

Presentation PDF (2.8 MB)


Session 2B
Data Assimilation
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD
10:30 AM
2B.1
An Overview of the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation (NAVDAS) and NAVDAS-AR (Accelerated Representer) Systems
Nancy Baker, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Goerss, K. Sashegyi, P. Pauley, R. Langland, L. Xu, C. Blankenship, B. Campbell, B. Ruston, T. Rosmond, and R. L. Pauley
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (60.3 kB)

10:45 AM
2B.2
PBL state estimation with surface observations, a column model, and an ensemble filter
Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Rostkier-Edelstein
Recorded presentation

11:00 AM
2B.3
The impact of including a weak dynamical constraint in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System
Ronald Errico, UMBC/GEST and NASA/GSFC/GMAO, Greenbelt, MD MD; and R. Yang, D. Kleist, D. Parish, J. Guo, and R. Todling
Recorded presentation

11:15 AM
2B.4
Toward a weak constraint 4D-Var system: application of the Burgers equation
Liang Xu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Rosmond, J. Goerss, and B. Chua
Recorded presentation

11:30 AM
2B.5
A Fast Radiative Transfer Model and its Application in MM5 4Dvar
Gang Ma Sr., National Satellite Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081, Beijing, China

11:45 AM
2B.6
Latest development of 3DVAR system for ARPS and its application to a tornadic supercell storm
Guoqing Ge, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma; and J. Gao
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (311.2 kB)

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 26 June 2007


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 26 June 2007


Session 3A
Winter Weather II
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah
2:00 PM
3A.1
Evaluation of high-resolution WRF ARW model simulations of atmospheric river events during HMT-2006
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and J. W. Bao, P. J. Neiman, and P. Schultz

2:15 PM
3A.2
A high-resolution observational and modeling comparison of mesoscale band life cycle during three recent northeast U.S. snowstorms
David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS/HPC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. A. Colle and S. E. Yuter

Presentation PDF (1017.0 kB)

2:30 PM
3A.3
The unappreciated threat from inertial instability
David M. Schultz, University of Helsinki and Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland; and R. S. Schumacher and J. A. Knox

2:45 PM
3A.4
West Coast winter cyclogenesis
Dr. Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina

Presentation PDF (690.0 kB)

3:00 PM
3A.5
Regional scale ensemble forecast of the Lake Effect snow event of February 2007
Justin Marc Arnott, NOAA/NWS, Johnson City, NY; and M. S. Evans and R. Grumm

Presentation PDF (2.3 MB)

3:15 PM
3A.6
Lake Effect Snow Storm Over Buffalo, NY October 12-13, 2006
Robert S. Hamilton, NOAA/NWSFO, Cheektowaga, NY; and D. Zaff and T. Niziol

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

3:30 PM
3A.7
Paper 3A.7 has been moved. New Poster Number P1.29A

3:45 PM
3A.7A
Northern New England coastal flooding
John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS, Gray, Maine

Presentation PDF (497.4 kB)


Session 3B
Mesoscale and Storm-Scale NWP
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: David R. Stauffer, Penn State University
2:00 PM
3B.1
CAPS Realtime Storm-scale Ensemble and High-resolution Forecasts as Part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2007 Spring Experiment
Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. Kong, D. B. Weber, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. S. Wandishin, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (723.7 kB)

2:15 PM
3B.2
Preliminary Analysis on the Real-Time Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts Produced as a Part of the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2007 Spring Experiment
Fanyou Kong, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, D. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, D. Weber, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, and J. Du
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.9 MB)

2:30 PM
3B.3
Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of Doppler radar data: Analyses and short-term forecasts of a developing MCS
Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK OK; and D. C. Dowell and L. J. Wicker

Presentation PDF (1.1 MB)

2:45 PM
3B.4
Analysis of major orographic precipitation events over the Pacific Northwest using field data, mesoscale models, and an operational WSR-88D radar
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University / SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and Y. Lin, S. E. Yuter, and J. Payne
Recorded presentation

3:00 PM
3B.5
Some practical considerations for the first generation of operational convection-allowing NWP: How much resolution is enough?
John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. E. Baldwin, J. J. Levit, M. Weisman, K. K. Droegemeier, D. B. Weber, and C. S. Schwartz

Presentation PDF (774.1 kB)

3:15 PM
3B.6
Investigation of numerical error sources in coupled model predictions of atmospheric transport and dispersion
Nelson L. Seaman, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, A. Deng, and I. Sykes

Presentation PDF (670.2 kB)

3:30 PM
3B.7
An Overview of the NOAA National Centers for Environmnental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological model products to support atmospheric transport and dispersion studies
Jeffery T. McQueen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and D. Jovic, H. Y. Chuang, B. Zhou, J. Du, M. Tsidulko, and G. Dimego

3:45 PM-4:15 PM: Tuesday, 26 June 2007


Coffee Break
Location: Summit C (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)

4:15 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 26 June 2007


Session 4A
Analysis Systems
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Keith Brewster, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma
4:15 PM
4A.1
Rapid-Refresh Core Test: aspects of WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW forecast performance relevant to the Rapid-Refresh application
John M. Brown, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, T. G. Smirnova, G. A. Grell, L. R. Bernardet, L. B. Nance, R. S. Collander, and C. W. Harrop

Presentation PDF (550.6 kB)

4:30 PM
4A.2
Hourly data assimilation with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation for the Rapid Refresh
Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, T. W. Schlatter, S. G. Benjamin, and M. Hu

Presentation PDF (511.6 kB)

4:45 PM
4A.3
TAMDAR and its impact on Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) forecasts
William R. Moninger, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, B. D. Jamison, T. W. Schlatter, T. L. Smith, and E. J. Szoke

Presentation PDF (286.4 kB)

5:00 PM
4A.4
Impact of TAMDAR data on RUC short-range forecasts
Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO; and R. S. Collander, B. D. Jamison, T. L. Smith, S. G. Benjamin, W. R. Moninger, T. W. Schlatter, and B. Schwartz

Presentation PDF (1.7 MB)

5:15 PM
4A.5
The status of the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System at NCEP
Manuel S.F.V. De Pondeca, SAIC and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. S. Manikin, D. F. Parrish, R. J. Purser, W. S. Wu, G. DiMego, J. C. Derber, S. Benjamin, J. D. Horel, L. Anderson, and B. Colman

Presentation PDF (445.9 kB)

5:30 PM
4A.6
The RTMA background - Hourly downscaling of RUC data to 5-km detail
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown, G. S. Manikin, and G. Mann

Presentation PDF (469.9 kB)

4A.7
Downscaled NAM Data for Forecasting Applications

4:15 PM-6:15 PM: Tuesday, 26 June 2007


Session 4B
Ensemble Kalman Filter: Tutorial
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR
4:15 PM
4B.1
An Introduction to Ensemble Kalman Filtering
Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded presentation

Wednesday, 27 June 2007

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

6:00 AM-11:55 PM: Wednesday, 27 June 2007


Wed 27 June

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 27 June 2007


Session 5A
High Impact Weather
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Douglas Wesley, UCAR/COMET
8:00 AM
5A.1
A climatological Analysis of the Link between breaking synoptic-scale Rossby Waves and heavy Precipitation Events in the Alps
Olivia Martius, ETH, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; and C. Schwierz and H. C. Davies
Recorded presentation

8:15 AM
5A.2
Patterns of Heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic Region
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Holmes
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (413.7 kB)

8:30 AM
5A.3
The use of ensembles and anomalies to anticipate extreme flood events in the northeastern United States
Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and R. H. Grumm, J. W. Cannon, and W. Drag
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (340.5 kB)

8:45 AM
5A.4
Composite means and anomalies of meteorological parameters for summertime flash flooding in the National Weather Service Eastern Region
Alan M. Cope, NOAA/NWS, Westampton, NJ; and L. R. Robertson
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (885.0 kB)

9:00 AM
5A.5
Heavy rainfall events preceding the arrival of tropical cyclones
Matthew R. Cote, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. L. Jurewicz Sr.
Recorded presentation

9:15 AM
5A.6
A new climatology of 25-year, 50-year, and 100-year microburst winds
James C. Walter, Salt River Project, Phoenix, AZ

Presentation PDF (544.4 kB)

9:30 AM
5A.7
Mesoscale disturbances on the periphery of closed anticyclones: A link between mesoscale processes and intraseasonal climate variability
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart
Recorded presentation

9:45 AM
5A.8
The record-breaking central California heat wave of July 2006
Warren Blier, NOAA/NWS, Monterey, CA
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.3 MB)


Session 5B
WRF: System development
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Joe Klemp, NCAR
8:00 AM
5B.1
Advances in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
Joseph Klemp, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded presentation

8:30 AM
5B.2
4-Dimensional Variational (4D-Var) data assimilation for the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) model
Xiang-Yu Huang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Q. Xiao, X. Zhang, W. Huang, D. M. Barker, J. Michalakes, J. Bray, Z. Ma, T. Henderson, J. Dudhia, X. Zhang, D. J. Won, Y. R. Guo, H. C. Lin, and Y. H. Kuo
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.3 MB)

8:45 AM
5B.3
Hybrid variational/ensemble data assimilation for WRF
Dale M. Barker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and X. Y. Huang, X. Wang, C. Snyder, and A. C. Lorenc
Recorded presentation

9:00 AM
5B.4
Weather Research and Forecasting Core Tests
Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet, B. Weatherhead, G. Noonan, T. Fowler, T. G. Smirnova, S. G. Benjamin, J. Brown, and A. Loughe
Recorded presentation

9:15 AM
5B.5
Intercomparison of simulations using 4 WRF microphysical schemes with dual-Polarization data for a German squall line
William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and M. Pfeifer
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (470.0 kB)

9:30 AM
5B.6
The NCEP's WRF NMM and hazardous weather prediction
Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black, M. E. Pyle, G. Manikin, E. Rogers, H. Y. Chuang, and G. DiMego
Recorded presentation

9:45 AM
5B.7
High resolution accurate WRF forecasts for the Middle East
Barry H. Lynn, The Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (250.7 kB)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 27 June 2007


Coffee Break
Location: Summit C (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 27 June 2007


Session 6A
Operational Forecasting
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Randy Graham, NOAA/NWS
6A.1
National Weather Service (NWS) – services evolution

10:45 AM
6A.1A
Road pavement temperatures and their impact on travel during snow storms
Donald M. Moore, NOAA/NWS, Billings, MT; and R. J. Miller
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.9 MB)

11:00 AM
6A.3A
Local high impact weather events and their relationship to forecast performance
Paul A. Hirschberg, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Hilderbrand, I. Leveson, and C. Woods
Recorded presentation

6A.2
The New National Weather Service concept of operations

11:15 AM
6A.4
The National Weather Service Unified Surface Analysis
Robbie Berg, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. D. Clark, D. Roth, and T. Birchard
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.6 MB)

6A.3
Generating and communicating uncertainty information for high impact weather, water, and climate forecasts

12:00 PM
6A.5
Project Phoenix - Optimizing the machine-person mix in high-impact weather forecasting
Patrick J. McCarthy, MSC, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; and W. Purcell and D. Ball
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (112.6 kB)

12:15 PM
6A.6
GFS-based MOS precipitation forecast guidance for island sites in the tropical western Pacific Ocean
James C. Su, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (485.5 kB)


Session 6B
Short Range Ensemble Forecasting
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Michael Sestak, FNMOC
6B.1
Short-range ensemble forecasts of high-impact weather from MOGREPS

10:45 AM
6B.1A
Time-expanded sampling for ensemble-based filter with covariance localization: assimilation experiments with a shallow-water equation model
Qin Xu, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; and L. Wei, H. Lu, and Q. Zhao
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (448.9 kB)

11:00 AM
6B.2
Postprocessing of precipitation forecasts for new configured NCEP short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) system
Huiling Yuan, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and NRC, Boulder, CO; and J. Du, J. A. McGinley, P. Schultz, B. Zhou, C. Lu, Z. Toth, and G. DiMego

Presentation PDF (269.9 kB)

11:15 AM
6B.3
Verification of extratropical cyclones within NCEP forecast models using an automated tracking algorithm
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University / SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and M. Charles
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (785.0 kB)

11:30 AM
6B.4
The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed: Collaborative testing of ensemble and convection-allowing WRF models and subsequent transfer to operations at the Storm Prediction Center
Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, J. J. Levit, M. E. Pyle, Z. I. Janjic, B. Ferrier, J. Du, M. L. Weisman, and M. Xue
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.1 MB)

11:45 AM
6B.5
Forecast skill and spread in small convection-resolving and large non-convection-resolving WRF model ensembles
Adam J. Clark, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.
Recorded presentation

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Wednesday, 27 June 2007


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 27 June 2007


Session 7B
Ensemble Modeling
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jan Paegle, University of Utah
2:00 PM
7B.1
Diagnosis and Optimization of Ensemble Forecasts
Tomislava Vukicevic, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and I. Jankov and J. A. McGinley
Recorded presentation

2:15 PM
7B.2
A Simple Method for Calibrating Ensemble Variability to Represent Meteorological Model Uncertainty
Walter C. Kolczynski Jr., Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer and S. E. Haupt
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (226.0 kB)

2:30 PM
7B.3
The ensemble forecast system at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center and maritime high wind probability forecasts
Michael Sestak, FNMOC, Monterey, CA

2:45 PM
7B.4
ECO-RAP, Part 1: A new adaptive error covariance localization tool for 4-dimensional ensemble data assimilation
Daniel Hodyss, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop
Recorded presentation

3:00 PM
7B.5
ECO-RAP, Part 2: Inexpensive huge ensembles
Craig H. Bishop, NRL, Monterey, CA; and W. F. Campbell, D. Hodyss, and J. G. McLay
Recorded presentation

3:15 PM
7B.6
Probabilistic QPF using a multi-physics WRF ensemble
Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and L. Brieger
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (86.6 kB)

3:30 PM
7B.7
A WRF and MM5 Mesoscale Ensemble Analysis and Prediction System (MEAPS) developed for ATEC operational applications
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Hacker, M. Xu, T. Warner, and S. Swerdlin
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (573.2 kB)

3:45 PM
7B.8
Supplemental NWP for the Hydrometeorological Testbed Project
Paul Schultz, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (161.3 kB)

2:00 PM-4:15 PM: Wednesday, 27 June 2007


Session 7A
Convective Systems
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS
2:00 PM
7A.1
Forecasting thunderstorm characterisitics that have a high impact on air traffic flow
James Pinto, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and M. Steiner, M. Dixon, C. Phillips, N. Oien, R. Rasmussen, and M. Weisman

Presentation PDF (396.1 kB)

2:15 PM
7A.2
An analysis of the Northern Gulf of Mexico sea/land breeze and associated convective precipitation
Christopher M. Hill, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. J. Fitzpatrick, J. Corbin, Y. Lau, S. Bhate, and P. G. Dixon
Recorded presentation

2:30 PM
7A.3
Impact of Low-Altitude Radar Data on Storm-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction
Ashton Robinson Cook, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Drogemeier and F. Kong
Recorded presentation

2:45 PM
7A.4
Analysis and prediction of Sumatra squall lines
Lan Yi, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore; and T. Y. Koh
Recorded presentation

3:00 PM
7A.5
The sensitivity of squall line motion to environmental changes in 3D idealized WRF forecasts
Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. M. Lackmann
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (426.0 kB)

3:15 PM
7A.6
Warm-season lake-/sea-breeze severe weather in the Northeast
Patrick Wilson, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and T. Wasula
Recorded presentation

3:30 PM
7A.7
Synoptic and Mesoscale Regulation of Dryline Intensity and Associated Convection
David M. Schultz, University of Helsinki and Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00101, Helsinki, Finland; and C. C. Weiss

3:45 PM
7A.8
Tornadoes from elevated convection
Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and B. E. Walker
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

4:00 PM
7A.9
Strong and violent tornado outbreaks: Comparisons in thermodynamic and wind parameters between large hail and non large hail events
Michael P. Seaman, NOAA, Salt Lake City, UT; and R. H. Johns
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (71.1 kB)

4:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 27 June 2007


Poster Session 2
Wednesday Poster Viewing
Location: Summit C (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
P2.1
The U.S. Navy's on-demand, coupled, mesoscale data assimilation and prediction system
John Cook, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Frost, G. Love, L. Phegley, Q. Zhao, D. A. Geiszler, J. Kent, S. Potts, D. Martinez, T. J. Neu, D. Dismachek, and L. N. McDermid

Handout (517.2 kB)

P2.2
An Ensemble-Based 4DVar Approach Based on SVD Technique
C.J. Qiu, Lanzhou Universigy, 730000 Lanzhou, Gansu, China; and A. M. Shao, Q. Xu, and L. Wei

Handout (204.9 kB)

P2.3
Poster P2.3 has been moved. New paper number 6B.1A

P2.4
Impacts of digital filter initialization on the WRF in the Korea Meteorological Administration
Ju-Won Kim, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and X. Y. Huang, H. S. Lee, and S. W. Joo

P2.5
Development and Testing of a New Cloud Analysis Package using Radar, Satellite, and Surface Cloud Observations within GSI for Initializing Rapid Refresh
Ming Hu, CAPS, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. S. Weygandt, M. Xue, and S. G. Benjamin

Handout (514.3 kB)

P2.6
Recovery of mesoscale covariance using time-phased ensembles
Ok-Yeon Kim, Pukyung National University, Busan, Korea; and C. Lu, J. A. McGinley, and J. H. Oh

Handout (2.4 MB)

P2.7
The impact of Doppler radar data on rainfall forecast: a case study of a convective rainband event in Mississippi Delta using WRF 3D-Var
Eunha Lim, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Q. Xiao, J. Sun, P. J. Fitzpatrick, Y. Li, and J. L. Dyer

Handout (496.5 kB)

P2.8
An evaluation of 3DVAR, nudging-based FDDA and a hybrid scheme for summer convection forecasts
Wei Yu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu and T. Warner

Handout (286.6 kB)

P2.9
Evaluation of an Advanced Radiative Transfer Model in US Navy's Regional Numerical Weather Prediction System
Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. L. Westphal, J. E. Nachamkin, and S. Wang

P2.10
Implementation of bias correction scheme on KMA's operational global ensemble prediction system
Dongjoon Kim, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. O. Moon, E. H. Jeon, J. H. Son, and H. S. Lee

P2.11
Poster P2.11 has been moved. New paper number 13B.5A

P2.12
Climatology of elevated thunderstorms in the western United States
Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA

Handout (1.0 MB)

P2.13
Comparing snowstorms with and without lightning via the growth rate parameter
Christopher J. Melick, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and B. Pettegrew, L. L. Smith, A. E. Becker, P. Market, and A. R. Lupo

Handout (248.1 kB)

P2.14
Scale-dependent precipitation forecast error in the GFS
Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and H. Yuan, S. E. Koch, E. Tollerud, J. A. McGinley, and P. Schultz

Handout (769.3 kB)

P2.15
The contribution of downward momentum transport to MCS motion

P2.16
Derecho and MCS formation and interactions during BAMEX
Nicholas D. Metz, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and L. F. Bosart

P2.17
The sensitivity of simulated convective morphologies to cloud microphysical scheme parameters
Eric A. Aligo, Iowa State University,SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

P2.18
A preliminary analysis of severe mesoscale convective systems (MCS) crossing the Appalachians
Stephen J. Keighton, NOAA/NWS, Blacksburg, VA; and J. L. Guyer, J. L. Peters, and J. Jackson

Handout (519.9 kB)

P2.19
Observations of inflow feeder clouds and their relation to severe thunderstorms
Rebecca J. Mazur, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. F. Weaver and T. H. Vonder Haar

Handout (483.1 kB)

P2.20
An experiment to evaluate the use of quantitative precipitation forecasts from numerical guidance by operational forecasters
Joshua M. Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and D. Nietfeld, R. A. Wolf, and P. N. Schumacher

P2.21
Poster P2.21 has been moved. New Paper Number 9A.3A

P2.22
Analysis of precipitation forecasts from the NCEP global forecast system
Huiling Yuan, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and NRC, Boulder, CO; and C. Lu, E. I. Tollerud, J. A. McGinley, and P. Schultz

Handout (2.6 MB)

P2.23
Improving anticipation of the influence of upstream convection on QPF
Christian M. Cassell, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. Lackmann and K. Mahoney

Handout (328.8 kB)

P2.24
Sensitivities of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in forecasting low-level jet events and the impact on forecasting severe weather
Brandon A. Storm, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. Dudhia and S. Basu

P2.25
Contributions of mixed physics and perturbed lateral boundary conditions to the skill and spread of precipitation forecasts from a WRF ensemble
Adam J. Clark, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and T. C. Chen

P2.26
Coherence of rainfall propagation as simulated in the WRF model using two different convective schemes
Andrew J. Ansorge, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and J. Correia Jr. and A. J. Clark

P2.27
Advanced Research WRF (ARW) modeled low-level jet climatology compared to observed climatologies
Brandon A. Storm, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and S. Basu and J. Dudhia

P2.28
Investigation of the Fine Scale Modeling Abilities of the WRF: Wind and Temperature Fields over Oklahoma City
Ripley C. McCoy, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. A. Gibbs

P2.29
The WRF Model's new explicit numerical diffusion and its effects on transport and dispersion in the planetary boundary layer
Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. H. Bryan, J. H. Copeland, and J. P. Hacker

P2.30
Gravity wave phase discrepancies in WRF
Stephen D. Jascourt, MDA Information Systems, Gaithersburg, MD

Handout (1.7 MB)

P2.31
Poster P2.31 has been moved. New Paper Number is 10B.4A

P2.32
An intercomparison of MODIS-derived and WRF-simulated cloud data for an intense extratropical cyclone
Jason A. Otkin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Greenwald

P2.33
Time-frequency localization and long- and short-term memories in the GFS precipitation forecast errors
Chungu Lu, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and H. Yuan, S. E. Koch, E. I. Tollerud, J. A. McGinley, and P. Schultz

Handout (758.4 kB)

P2.34
Hail size forecast verification across Utah using a combination of radar reflectivity heights and derived products
Michael P. Seaman, NOAA, Salt Lake City, UT

P2.35
Poster P2.35 has been moved. New Paper Number is 10B.5A

P2.36
Using BOI_Verify to Identify Model Preferences in Large Temperature Change Events
Leslie R. Colin, NOAA/NWS, Boise, ID

Handout (197.5 kB)

P2.37
Comparison of Aura MLS water vapor measurements with GFS and NAM analyses in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere
LeVan Thien, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and M. A. Olsen

Handout (190.0 kB)

P2.38
The performance of weather forecasts for various forecast providers
Patrick J. McCarthy, MSC, Winnipeg, MB, Canada

Handout (194.0 kB)

P2.39
Initial verification of the NOAA-UNH Joint Center for Ocean Observing Technology real-time MM5/WRF forecasts
John M. Henderson, AER, Lexington, MA; and T. S. Zaccheo, N. Vinogradova, D. Vandemark, J. W. Cannon, and D. P. St. Jean

Handout (279.2 kB)

P2.40
Why numerical model fails to predict tropical cyclone intensification?
Xuanli Li, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and Z. Pu

P2.41
An Artificial Neural Network to Forecast Thunderstorm Location: A Search for More Relevant Land Surface Input Data
Waylon G. Collins, NOAA/NWS, Corpus Christi, TX; and P. Tissot

Handout (541.4 kB)

P2.42
A blended total water vapor product for the analysis and forecast of weather hazards
Sheldon J. Kusselson, NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Q. Kidder and J. Forsythe

P2.43
GOES Winter Precipitation efficiency algorithm
Robert M. Rabin, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Hanna

P2.44
The GOES-R ABI (Advanced Basline Imager) and continuation of GOES-N class sounder products
Timothy J. Schmit, NOAA/NESDIS, Madison, WI; and J. J. Gurka, J. Li, M. D. Goldberg, and K. J. Schrab

P2.45
Baseline instruments for the GOES-R series
Timothy J. Schmit, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, Madison, WI; and J. J. Gurka, T. M. Renkevens, M. M. Gunshor, J. Li, M. D. Goldberg, and K. J. Schrab

P2.46
Using BoiVerify as a Forecast Tool to Improve WFO LKN Forecasts
Jason M. Grzywacz, NOAA/NWSFO, Elko, NV

P2.47
Convective season synoptic climatology by ENSO phase in the north central United States
Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and J. M. Boustead

P2.48
Tornado climatology and predictability by ENSO phase in the north central U.S.: A compositing study
Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and J. S. Boyne, G. R. Lussky, C. Cogil, and R. S. Ryrholm

P2.49
Ensemble predictions of the 2007 Valentines Day Winter Storm
Richard Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and N. A. Stuart

Handout (894.7 kB)

P2.50
On the impact of NUMB weather on science, society and operational forecasting centres
Leonard Allen Smith, London School of Economics and Oxford University, London, United Kingdom

Thursday, 28 June 2007

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

6:00 AM-11:55 PM: Thursday, 28 June 2007


Thurs 28 June

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 28 June 2007


Session 8A
Remote Sensing & Clouds
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Ashton Robinson Cook, NOAA/NWS SPC
8:00 AM
8A.1
Assimilation of WindSat winds into the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Pauley and R. L. Pauley
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (312.7 kB)

8:15 AM
8A.2
Pre-operational testing and results from direct assimilation of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS)
William F. Campbell, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. D. Swadley, W. Bell, N. Baker, C. Blankenship, and B. Ruston
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.4 MB)

8:30 AM
8A.3
2D Assimilation of dynamical information from satellite imagery
Alison C. Rudd, Department of Mathematics, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom; and J. R. Eyre and I. Roulstone
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (115.4 kB)

8:45 AM
8A.4
Observations of Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind events from QuikSCAT: An updated event climatology and operational model evaluation
Michael J. Brennan, UCAR/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and H. D. Cobb III and R. D. Knabb
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (642.7 kB)

9:00 AM
8A.5
Verification of global and mesoscale cloud forecasts over the eastern Pacific
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. M. Schmidt, C. Mitrescu, and S. D. Miller
Recorded presentation

9:15 AM
8A.6
Numerical Forecast of Fog -- Central Solutions
Binbin Zhou, SAIC at Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Du, J. McQueen, and G. DiMego
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

9:30 AM
8A.7
Simulation and Analysis of Winter Advection Fog in Beijing Area
Aimin Liang Sr., Beijing Meteorological Center of CAAC, Beijing, China; and Q. Zhang Sr. and Z. Zhang

9:45 AM
8A.8
Probabilistic Cloud Forecasting using Logistic Regression
Eric M. Kemp, Northrop Grumman IT TASC, Chantilly, Virginia; and R. Alliss
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (111.2 kB)


Session 8B
Ensemble Kalman Filter
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Joshua Hacker, NCAR
8:00 AM
8B.1
Weighted ensemble filters for assimilation of discrete structures
Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded presentation

8:15 AM
8B.2
Simultaneous estimation of inflation and observational errors in Ensemble Kalman Filter
Hong Li, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay

8:30 AM
8B.3
Comparison of different ensemble-based Kalman filters in data assimilation for strongly nonlinear dynamics
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT

8:45 AM
8B.4
A Diffusive Ensemble Kalman Filter
Xiaosong Yang, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. M. DelSole

Presentation PDF (415.4 kB)

9:00 AM
8B.5
A Hybrid Nudging-EnKF Approach to Data Assimilation
Lili Lei, University of Colorado, CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and D. R. Stauffer
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (722.8 kB)

9:15 AM
8B.6
Comparing EnKF with 3DVar for regional-scale data assimilation
Zhiyong Meng, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and F. Zhang
Recorded presentation

9:30 AM
8B.7
A robust formulation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter
Stephen J. Thomas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Hacker

9:45 AM
8B.8
Coupling ensemble Kalman filter with four-dimensional variational data assimilation
Meng Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and F. Zhang and J. Hansen

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 28 June 2007


Coffee Break
Location: Summit C (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 28 June 2007


Session 9A
Forecast Verification
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: David Myrick, University of Utah
10:30 AM
9A.1
Using grid-based forecast verification to promote improved service in NWS/Western Region
Ken Pomeroy, NOAA/NWS, Western Region, Scientific Services Division, Salt Lake City, UT; and D. T. Myrick and A. Sutula
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (95.7 kB)

10:45 AM
9A.2
The impact of precipitation dataset choices on forecast verification during the HMT
Edward I. Tollerud, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and H. Yuan, C. J. Anderson, and J. A. Mcginley

Presentation PDF (917.5 kB)

9A.3
A method to verify National Weather Service gridded precipitation forecasts

11:15 AM
9A.3A
Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts
Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK; and J. M. Frederick
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

11:30 AM
9A.4
Spatial verification of high-resolution weather forecasts: beyond traditional metrics
David A. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Brown, E. Ebert, E. Gilleland, C. A. Davis, and L. Holland
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (44.9 kB)

11:45 AM
9A.5
An evaluation of a Procrustes shape analysis verification tool using idealized cases
Steven A. Lack, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and N. I. Fox and A. Micheas
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (225.3 kB)

12:00 PM
9A.6
The sensitivity of object-based nowcasts to object threshold selection
Neil I. Fox, University of Missouri - Columbia, Columbia, MO; and S. A. Lack, G. L. Limpert, J. Miranda, N. Miller, A. Schnetzler, A. Koleiny, and W. T. Gilmore
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (319.4 kB)


Session 9B
Numerical Prediction of Convective Systems
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Qingyun Zhao, NRL
9B.1
How predictable are severe convective storms? An initial study using EnKF data assimilation

10:45 AM
9B.2
An Assessment of Convective Forecast Failures with the WRF-ARW Model
Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wang, K. Manning, C. Davis, W. C. Skamarock, and J. Klemp

11:15 AM
9B.3
Prediction of Convective Initiation and Storm Evolution on 12 June 2002 during IHOP_2002
Haixia Liu, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.3 MB)

11:30 AM
9B.4
Investigating Sources of Inaccuracy in the Analysis and Forecast of a Real Tornadic Thunderstorm Case with the EnKF Method through OSS Experiments
Mingjing Tong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

11:45 AM
9B.5
Evolution and maintenance of simulated extreme-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.2 MB)

12:00 PM
9B.6
Prediction of the timing of convective initiation along a dryline in a high-resolution model
William J. Martin, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (444.7 kB)

12:00 PM-2:00 PM: Thursday, 28 June 2007


Lunch Break

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 28 June 2007


Session 10A
Model Verification
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
2:00 PM
10A.1
The WRF Verification Toolkit (WVT)
Lacey Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, T. Fowler, J. E. Halley Gotway, E. Gilleland, and D. A. Ahijevych
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (175.9 kB)

2:15 PM
10A.2
Application of the MODE object-based verification tool for the evaluation of model precipitation fields
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Holland, J. E. Halley Gotway, R. Bullock, D. A. Ahijevych, E. Gilleland, and C. A. Davis
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (361.9 kB)

2:30 PM
10A.3
The relationship between forecast accuracy over the northeast Pacific and flow regime
Lynn A. McMurdie, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Recorded presentation

2:45 PM
10A.4
East Coast vs. West Coast: A documentation of model forecast failures for Eta, NAM, GFS, GEM and ECMWF
Garrett Wedam, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. A. McMurdie and C. F. Mass
Recorded presentation

3:00 PM
10A.5
Sensitivity testing of a new global model with special field observations
Jan Paegle, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. A. Byerle, A. C. Saulo, J. J. Ruiz, and J. E. Nogues-Paegle
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.0 MB)

3:15 PM
10A.6
Mesoscale Gridded Operational Consensus Forecasts
C. Engel, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and E. Ebert and T. P. Lane


Session 10B
Model Physics and Dynamics
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: James Doyle, NRL
2:00 PM
10B.1
Prediction of degree of riming within a bulk microphysical scheme
Mark T. Stoelinga, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and H. McCormick and J. D. Locatelli
Recorded presentation

2:15 PM
10B.2
Impact of multi-moment microphysics and model resolution on predicted cold pool and reflectivity intensity and structures in the Oklahoma tornadic supercell storms of 3 May 1999
Daniel T. Dawson II, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, J. A. Milbrandt, M. K. Yau, and G. Zhang
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

2:30 PM
10B.3
Diagnosing the Intercept Parameter for Exponential Rain Drop Size Distribution Based on Video Disdrometer Observations
Guifu Zhang, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, D. Daniel Dawson, and Q. Cao

Presentation PDF (1.0 MB)

10B.4
Closure Theory of Turbulent Eddy

Presentation PDF (24.9 kB)

3:00 PM
10B.4A
A new non-hydrostatic hybrid vertical coordinate atmospheric model
Michael D. Toy, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Randall
Recorded presentation

10B.5
Progress toward a dynamically adaptive NWP model

3:30 PM
10B.5A
Numerical accuracy of the regional spectral method used in NCEP RSM
Jun Wang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (451.2 kB)

3:45 PM
10B.6
Progress report on FIM: a flow-following finite-volume icosahedral model
Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and R. Bleck, A. E. MacDonald, J. W. Bao, S. Benjamin, J. Middlecoeff, N. Wang, and J. M. Brown
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (397.2 kB)

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 28 June 2007


Coffee Break
Location: Summit C (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 28 June 2007


Session 11A
Mesoscale Model Applications
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Louisa Nance, NCAR
4:00 PM
11A.1
Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation
Leela R. Watson, ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and B. Hoeth and P. F. Blottman
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (232.2 kB)

4:15 PM
11A.2
Evaluating WRF model output for severe-weather forecasting: The 2007 NOAA HWT Spring Experiment
Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK OK; and J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, J. J. Levit, M. Xue, M. L. Weisman, Z. I. Janjic, M. E. Pyle, J. Du, and D. Stensrud
Recorded presentation

4:30 PM
11A.3
The Regime Dependence of Optimally Weighted Ensemble Model Consensus Forecasts
Steven J. Greybush, The University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and S. E. Haupt and G. S. Young
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (284.2 kB)

4:45 PM
11A.4
The use of ensemble-based sensitivity for determining the impact of supplemental observations
Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. F. Mass
Recorded presentation

5:00 PM
11A.5
A Comparison of High-Resolution Mesoscale Forecasts using MM5 and WRF-ARW
Aijun Deng, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer and G. K. Hunter
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (692.9 kB)

5:15 PM
11A.6
On the Role of Atmospheric Data Assimilation and Model Resolution on Model Forecast Accuracy for the Torino Winter Olympics
David R. Stauffer, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and G. K. Hunter, A. Deng, J. R. Zielonka, K. Tinklepaugh, and P. Hayes
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.0 MB)

5:30 PM
11A.7
Evaluation of the ARW WRF Model in the Complex Terrain of Southwest Asia Part I: Objective Verification and Data Assimilation
Jianjun Xu, JCSDA/NOAA & AFWA/UCAR, Camp Springs, MD
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.4 MB)

5:45 PM
11A.8
Evaluation of cirrus cloud predictions from the MM5 and WRF/NAM weather models
Donald C. Norquist, AFRL - Air Force Research Laboratory, Hanscom AFB, MA
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (953.0 kB)


Session 11B
Land Surface Process & Modeling
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
4:00 PM
11B.1
Land Surface Modeling in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
Timothy F. Hogan, NRL, Monterey, CA
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (191.2 kB)

4:15 PM
11B.2
Improving meso-gamma scale NWP of winter weather with advanced ground-snow analysis and downscaling
Andrea N. Hahmann, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, F. Chen, and T. Warner

4:30 PM
11B.3
Sensitivity study of T2m and precipitation forecasts to soil moisture initial condition using NCEP WRF ensemble system
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Gayno, K. E. Mitchell, Z. Toth, and G. DiMego
Recorded presentation

4:45 PM
11B.4
A practical approach to sequential estimation of systematic error on near-surface mesoscale grids
Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. L. Rife
Recorded presentation

5:00 PM
11B.5
Response of short term precipitation to initial soil states in WRF-ARW model
Wanli Wu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, A. Hahmann, F. Chen, and T. Warner
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (424.4 kB)

11B.6
Impact of improved landuse data set over Taiwan island in the WRF model

5:30 PM
11B.7
Land Surface Modeling in the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®)
Teddy R. Holt, NRL, Monterey, CA
Recorded presentation

5:45 PM
11B.8
Atmosphere-cryosphere coupled model development and its application for regional climate studies
Ki-Hong Min, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and W. Y. Sun
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (563.8 kB)

Friday, 29 June 2007

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

6:00 AM-11:55 PM: Friday, 29 June 2007


Fri 29 June

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 29 June 2007


Session 12A
Tropical Cyclones
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Christopher M. Hill, Geosystems Research Institute
8:00 AM
12A.1
Hurricane Katrina (2005), Part I: Complex lifecycle of an intense tropical cyclone
R. J. McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and L. F. Bosart, J. R. Gyakum, and E. Atallah
Recorded presentation

8:15 AM
12A.2
Hurricane Katrina (2005), Part II: Evolution and hemispheric impacts
R. J. McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and L. F. Bosart, J. R. Gyakum, and E. Atallah
Recorded presentation

8:30 AM
12A.3
On the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Using an Operational Regional Prediction System
Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin
Recorded presentation

8:45 AM
12A.4
How do cloud microphysical processes influence the numerical simulation of a tropical cyclone's intensity change?
Xuanli Li, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and Z. Pu

Presentation PDF (524.1 kB)

9:00 AM
12A.5
Analyzing and predicting the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones
Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and J. S. Tyo and O. Demirci
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (392.0 kB)

9:15 AM
12A.6
Interactions between recurving west Pacific tropical cyclones and the extratropical large-scale flow
Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart
Recorded presentation

9:30 AM
12A.7
Mesoscale precipitation structures accompanying landfalling and transitioning tropical cyclones in the Northeast United States
Jared R. Klein, NWSFO Baltimore/Washington, Sterling, VA; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and D. R. Vallee
Recorded presentation

9:45 AM
12A.8
A detailed examination of the evolution of coastal fronts associated with tropical storm Marco (1990)
Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
Recorded presentation


Session 12B
Thorpex
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL
8:00 AM
12B.1
Some Highlights from the Progress and Plans of the World Meteorological Organization's THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) Program
David Parsons, NCAR, Boulder, CO
Recorded presentation

8:30 AM
12B.2
Defining societal and economic research and applications (SERA) priorities related to developments in numerical weather prediction and THORPEX
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Morss, J. Lazo, H. Brooks, P. Ganderton, and B. Mills
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (34.2 kB)

9:00 AM
12B.3
Current Status and Future Plans for NAEFS
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, L. Lefaivre, and M. Rosengaus
Recorded presentation

9:15 AM
12B.4
NCEP Global Ensemble Based Anomaly Forecast
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth
Recorded presentation

9:30 AM
12B.5
Progress in Observing Systems Simulation Experiments (a new nature run and International collaboration)
Michiko Masutani, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. P. Riishojgaard, T. W. Schlatter, J. S. Woollen, J. Terry, Z. Toth, R. Errico, G. D. Emmitt, O. Reale, E. Andersson, A. Stoffelen, G. J. Marseille, Y. Xie, Y. Song, E. Liu, J. C. Jusem, S. Greco, S. A. Wood, R. Yang, G. McConaughy, D. Devenyi, N. Prive, S. S. Weygandt, H. Sun, and S. Lord

Presentation PDF (499.3 kB)

9:45 AM
12B.6
Paper 12B.6 has been moved. New Poster Number P2.50

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 29 June 2007


Coffee Break
Location: Summit C (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 29 June 2007


Session 13A
Tropical Cyclones II
Location: Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Peter Neilley, WSI, Corp
10:30 AM
13A.1
Ensemble-based data assimilation and prediction for Hurricanes: Impacts of assimilating Doppler radar observations
Fuqing Zhang, College Station, TX; and Y. Weng, Z. Meng, and Y. Chen

10:45 AM
13A.2
A Tropical Cyclone Case Study using the Model Constrained 3D-Var Data Assimilation Scheme
Xudong Liang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and K. Zhao and D. Wang

11:00 AM
13A.3
Impact of Surface Roughness Representation on Hurricane Intensity Forecasts
Yi Jin, NRL, monterey, CA; and S. Chen, S. Wang, J. Doyle, C. S. Liou, J. M. Schmidt, and R. Hodur
Recorded presentation

11:15 AM
13A.4
A numerical study of the wind field expansion with Hurricane Katrina during a period of rapid intensification
Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and C. M. Hill, Y. Li, S. Bhate, Y. Lau, and Q. Xiao
Recorded presentation

11:30 AM
13A.5
The extratropical transition of Hurricane Helene (2006): Observation of structural evolution and operational model evaluation using QuikSCAT
Michael J. Brennan, UCAR/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. R. Rhome and R. D. Knabb
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.4 MB)

11:45 AM
13A.6
The Impact of Low-Cost Lagrangian Drifters on Analyses and Short-Range Forecasts of Hurricane Floyd (1999)
John Manobianco, ENSCO Inc., Melbourne, FL; and J. G. Dreher
Recorded presentation


Session 13B
Thorpex II
Location: Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Host: 22nd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/18th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chairs: Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland; Xiang-Yu Huang, NCAR
10:30 AM
13B.1
Adaptive observation strategies for lidar observations
Junjie Liu, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay

10:45 AM
13B.2
Synoptic-scale Rossby Wave Precursors to heavy Alpine Precipitation
Olivia Martius, ETH, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; and C. Schwierz and H. C. Davies
Recorded presentation

11:00 AM
13B.3
Factors influencing downstream anti-cyclogensis during extratropical transition
Ryan D. Torn, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim
Recorded presentation

11:15 AM
13B.4
Post-processing for multi-model ensembles
Thomas M. Hopson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Hacker and Y. Liu
Recorded presentation

13B.5
Using Standard Anomaly and Ensemble Data to Support Forecast Confidence of an Extreme Wind Event in the Pacific Northwest on December 14-15 2006

11:45 AM
13B.5A
Stochastic parameterizations: Impact on short-term perturbation growth and ensemble prediction
C. A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Teixeira, J. G. McLay, and C. H. Bishop
Recorded presentation

12:00 PM
13B.6
Paper 13B.6 has been moved. New Poster number P2.49

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Friday, 29 June 2007


Conference Ends
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