Probabilistic QPF using a multi-physics WRF ensemble

The numerical prediction of convective precipitation depends, to a great deal, on the physics of a forecast model. Additionally, initial conditions play a role in where convection will develop. A 16-member ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations was used for QPF for the Carolinas during the spring (April and May) of 2007. Ensemble members were split by: initialization time (00Z or 06Z), PBL scheme (YSU or MYJ), soil physics (Noah or MM5), and moist physics (Lin or Thompson). Results will show which differences resulted in ensemble spread and which yielded no significant differences.