P1.27 Forecasting Minimum Temperatures for Dugway Proving Ground

Monday, 25 June 2007
Summit C (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Carissa L. Klemmer, US Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, UT

Dugway Proving Ground is located in a spatially diverse climate ranging from flat deserts to mountain terrain. Forecasting in this environment is challenging, specifically when it comes to forecasting the minimum overnight temperature. Four years of data were collected from atmospheric soundings, infrared satellite images, surface maps and Dugway's Surface Atmospheric Measuring System (SAMS). A statistical analysis was carried out using 700 and 850 millibar heights, cloud cover, wind speed, precipitation, and snow cover broken down by season. The meteorologist inputs the forecasted specific conditions and the prediction model returns a minimum temperature forecast. The outcome of combining both statistical and qualitative views will aid meteorologists in achieving a more accurate low temperature forecast and provide improved support to the US Army and their mission.
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