Friday, 29 June 2007: 8:45 AM
Summit A (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Recent studies show that cloud microphysics processes have strong influence on the numerical forecast of tropical cyclone intensity changes. However, it is still not clear why cloud microphysics processes are so important. In other words, what are the major mechanisms by which the cloud microphysical processes affect tropical cyclone intensity changes? In this study, different microphysics parameterization schemes are used to simulate intensity change of Hurricane Emily(2005) with WRF model. The numerical simulations are then compared with observations in terms of environmental conditions and storm structures. The mechanisms by which model microphysical processes influence tropical cyclone intensity change are explored by diagnosis and comparison of the model results. Preliminary results indicated that model microphysical processes are not likely to influence tropical cyclone intensity via environment conditions. It is most likely that microphysics schemes influence tropical cyclone intensity change by storm scale convective structures and latent heat releases. Further studies are in progress and the results will be presented at the conference.
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