Session 5B.7 High resolution accurate WRF forecasts for the Middle East

Wednesday, 27 June 2007: 9:45 AM
Summit B (The Yarrow Resort Hotel and Conference Center)
Barry H. Lynn, The Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel

Presentation PDF (250.7 kB)

The Weather Research and Forecasting Model runs operationally over the Middle East to produce high-resolution weather forecasts for Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and Egypt. The model has been implemented on a eight processor cluster and produces 60 hour forecasts at 10 km grid resolution, and seven day forecasts at 30 km grid resolution. The implemenation of the WRF model for meterological forecasts in this region is an important advance in forecasting capability.

The model produces exceptional forecasts in summer (dry season) and winter (wet season) of surface temperatures and dew points, and good forecasts of surface winds. The model also simulates the storm-to-storm variation in 24 hour precipitation amounts quite well, although at 10 km resolution the model underpredicts precipitation in the Central Mountains of Israel. Improved simulation of forecasts variables were obtained through the judicious choice of model physics parameterizations, while better precipitation results were obtained at 3 vs 10 km grid resolution.

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