The CAPS effort in 2007 will use the WRF ARW model and the ensemble will include both initial/boundary condition and physics perturbations. The initial and boundary condition perturbations will come from the NCEP 2100 UTC SREF forecast cycle, with the control-member initial condition coming from the NAM 2100 UTC analysis on the 12 km grid. The physics perturbation members are designed for easy identification of the strengths and weakness of leading microphysics and PBL schemes within WRF.
Selected data fields will be fed directly into the NAWIPS systems in the HWT for use by experimental forecast and evaluation teams in the Spring Experiment. These will be combined with separate deterministic WRF forecasts at 3 km grid spacing, contributed by NCAR and EMC. Additional data fields from the CAPS runs will be posted on the web in realtime for external verification purposes. These include side by side comparisons of 2-km forecast composite reflectivity with the NSSL national reflectivity mosaic at 5-minute intervals and graphical displays of a large array of 2-D fields and ensemble products, including postage stamps and probability maps...
Over 1000 CPUs at the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center (PSC) will be used to produce the forecasts while additional processors at the University of Oklahoma Supercomputing Center for Education and Research (OSCER) will be used for post-processing. A special super-high-speed link capable of 200 MB/s will be set up between PSC and OSCER for data transfer.
Results of realtime forecasts and preliminary retrospective analysis on selected cases will be presented at the conference.