JP1.4 Boundary-driven versa internal variability in limited-area ensemble systems for the short-range

Monday, 1 June 2009
Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Judith Berner, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Y. Ha, J. P. Hacker, and C. Snyder

When producing short-range weather forecasts by limited-area ensemble systems, it

is of great interest how much variability is due to internal meso-scale dynamics

and how much is caused by the boundary conditions of the driving global model.

Here we show results from investigating the relative impact of driving-model boundaries and

internal variability and quantify their contribution to the total ensemble spread and

ensemble mean error in the AWFA Joint Mesoscale Ensemble.

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