Boundary-driven versa internal variability in limited-area ensemble systems for the short-range

When producing short-range weather forecasts by limited-area ensemble systems, it

is of great interest how much variability is due to internal meso-scale dynamics

and how much is caused by the boundary conditions of the driving global model.

Here we show results from investigating the relative impact of driving-model boundaries and

internal variability and quantify their contribution to the total ensemble spread and

ensemble mean error in the AWFA Joint Mesoscale Ensemble.