23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Sunday, 31 May 2009

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 31 May 2009


Registration Opens
Location: Grand Ballroom Foyer (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

Monday, 1 June 2009

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Registration Continues Throughout the Conference
Location: Grand Ballroom Foyer (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Session 1A
Real-Time Modeling and Analysis
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame
CoChair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
8:45 AM
Welcoming Remarks

9:00 AM
1A.1
Challenges with the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Pondeca
9:30 AM
1A.3
Realtime high-resolution mesoscale modeling for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency
David R. Stauffer, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and G. K. Hunter, A. Deng, J. R. Zielonka, K. Dedrick, C. Broadwater, A. Grose, C. Pavloski, and J. Toffler
9:45 AM
1A.4
Real-time testing and description of the FIM global model
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and J. Lee, R. Bleck, J. W. Bao, A. E. MacDonald, J. M. Brown, T. Henderson, J. Middlecoff, C. Harrop, N. Wang, W. Moninger, G. Grell, S. Sahm, and B. Jamison


Session 1B
High Impact Weather Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Moderator: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
Chair: Kelly Mahoney, North Carolina State University
CoChair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA
8:45 AM
Welcoming Remarks
9:00 AM
1B.1
9:15 AM
1B.2
Discrete Frontal Propagation over the Sierra–Cascade Mountains and Intermountain West
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. R. Neuman, G. L. West, and L. F. Bosart
9:30 AM
1B.3
Life cycle and mesoscale frontal structure of an Intermountain cyclone
Gregory L. West, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. J. Steenburgh

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Session 2A
Model Overviews and Recent Updates
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame
CoChair: W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah
10:30 AM
2A.1
WRF Reference Configurations
Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, L. R. Bernardet, and B. G. Brown
10:45 AM
2A.2
Renovation of JMA-GSM
Kengo Miyamoto, AESTO/JMA, Tokyo, Japan

11:00 AM
2A.3
Overview of NRL's mesoscale modeling system and research
James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, S. Chen, S. Gabersek, T. Haack, E. Hendricks, R. M. Hodur, T. R. Holt, Q. Jiang, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, P. May, J. E. Nachamkin, L. W. O'Neill, P. A. Reinecke, J. M. Schmidt, W. T. Thompson, and S. Wang
11:15 AM
2A.4
The NCEP North American Mesoscale Modeling System : Recent changes and future plans
Eric Rogers, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. DiMego, T. Black, M. Ek, B. Ferrier, G. Gayno, Z. Janjic, Y. Lin, M. Pyle, V. Wong, W. S. Wu, and J. Carley
11:30 AM
2A.5
Recent advances in weather and climate prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
William M. Lapenta, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord, J. Ward, G. DiMego, H. L. Tolman, J. C. Derber, H. L. Pan, N. Surgi, Z. Toth, and M. Ek
11:45 AM
2A.6
The NOAA Environmental Modeling System at NCEP
Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang and M. Iredell

Session 2B
High Impact Weather Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
CoChair: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
10:30 AM
2B.1
Development of an Alpine lee cyclone during MAP D-PHASE: forcings for cyclogeneis
R. McTaggart-Cowan, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and T. J. Galarneau Jr. and L. F. Bosart
10:45 AM
2B.2
11:00 AM
2B.3
An Analysis of a High Impact 500-hPa Cutoff Cyclone from the 2008 Warm Season
Matthew Scalora, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, N. A. Stuart, and T. A. Wasula
11:15 AM
2B.4
A downslope windstorm in New Jersey? An analysis of the 4 January 2009 high-wind event
Steven G. Decker, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ; and D. A. Robinson and N. Stefano
11:30 AM
2B.5
Meteorological analysis of an extreme Beaufort coastal storm surge event
John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. Small and E. Atallah

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Session 3A
Data Assimilation: Overview
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Peter P. Neilley, The Weather Company
CoChair: Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma
2:00 PM
3A.2
Full OSSEs with International Collaboration
Lars Peter Riishojgaard, JCSDA, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Masutani, J. S. Woollen, N. Prive, Y. Xie, L. Cucurull, A. Stoffelen, G. J. Marseille, G. D. Emmitt, E. Andersson, T. Zhu, F. Weng, and S. J. Lord
2:15 PM
3A.3
The Canadian LAM 3D-Var continental analysis system
Ervig Lapalme, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and L. Fillion, M. Tanguay, S. R. Macpherson, and B. Denis
2:30 PM
3A.4
The Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation system at the Naval Research Laboratory
Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Sashegyi, T. Holt, C. Bishop, F. Zhang, and Q. Xu

Session 3B
High Impact Weather Part III
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA
CoChair: Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
1:45 PM
3B.2
A climatology of high lapse rates and their influence on heat waves east of the Rocky Mountains
Jason M. Cordeira, Univ. of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. J. Galarneau Jr. and L. F. Bosart
2:00 PM
3B.3
Observational and numerical studies of rapid warm front passages
Todd M. Kluber, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. H. Carr
2:15 PM
3B.4
Ongoing development of an experimental, real-time prediction system for high-impact convective weather events
Jacob Carley, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and M. Baldwin, J. Trapp, J. Kwiatkowski, J. Logsdon, and S. J. Weiss
2:45 PM
3B.6

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Joint Poster Session 1
Joint Posters Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
JP1.1
On the Negative Water Vapor in the NCEP GFS: Sources and Solution
Fanglin Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

JP1.2
Numerical simulation of local circulation in the lake area around Daejeon, Korea
Jae-Young Byon, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. J. Choi and B. K. Seo

JP1.3
Cool-Season Severe Weather in the Northeast U.S
Jonas Asuma, SUNY/ University at Albany, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, J. S. Quinlan, and T. A. Wasula

JP1.5
A radiosonde system for the University of Missouri: An informal study of a decaying thunderstorm near Columbia, Missouri
Cody Lee Fritz, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market, N. I. Fox, S. Skibinski, and A. R. Lupo

Handout (395.3 kB)

JP1.6
High-resolution simulated ABI datasets used for GOES-R research activities
Jason A. Otkin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Greenwald, J. Sieglaff, M. M. Gunshor, K. Bah, T. J. Schmit, A. Huang, and S. Wanzong

JP1.7
An intercomparison of T-REX mountain wave simulations
James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Gabersek, L. R. Bernardet, J. M. Brown, A. Doernbrack, E. Filaus, V. Grubisic, Q. Jiang, D. J. Kirshbaum, O. Knoth, S. Koch, I. Stiperski, S. Vosper, and S. Zhong

JP1.8
Numerical Accuracy of the Regional Spectral Method used in NCEP RSM
Jun Wang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang

JP1.9
Sensitivity of a simulated landfalling typhoon to soil moisture initialization
Kun-Young Byun, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. J. Lim and T. Y. Lee

Handout (327.1 kB)

JP1.10
A detailed analysis of the nocturnal QLCS tornadoes that moved through Omaha, Nebraska, on 8 June 2008
Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and J. T. Martinelli and D. Nietfeld

Handout (459.5 kB)

JP1.11
A new approach to local modeling
James M. Frederick, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK; and J. B. McGavock and S. F. Piltz

Handout (216.7 kB)

JP1.12
Development and testing of an operational mesoscale ensemble system
Teddy Holt, NRL, Monterey, California; and J. Hansen, C. Bishop, and M. Sestak

JP1.13
A Comparison of two Mellor-Yamada-based PBL schemes in Simulating a Hybrid Barrier Jet
Joseph B. Olson, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and National Research Council, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown

Handout (2.9 MB)


Coffee Break with Poster Viewing
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Session 4A
Ensemble Forecasting Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL
CoChair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame
4:00 PM
4A.1
AFWA's Joint Ensemble Forecast System Experiment
Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and T. Nobis, S. Rentschler, S. Rugg, J. Cunningham, J. Hughes, and M. Sittel
4:15 PM
4A.2
The Air Force Weather Agency's mesoscale ensemble: scientific description and recent results
Joshua Hacker, NRL, CA; and C. Snyder, S. Ha, J. Schramm, M. Pocernich, and D. Dowell
4:30 PM
4A.3
Representing Model Error in the AWFA Joint Mesoscale Ensemble by a Stochastic Kinetic Backscatter Scheme
Judith Berner, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Fournier, S. Y. Ha, J. Hacker, and C. Snyder

4:45 PM
4A.4
Recent upgrade of NCEP short-range ensemble forecast (SREF) system
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Dimego, Z. Toth, D. Jovic, B. Zhou, J. Zhu, J. Wang, and H. Juang
5:00 PM
4A.5
Upgrade of NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Hou, and B. Cui

5:15 PM
4A.6
The impact of a stochastic perturbation scheme on hurricane prognosis in NCEP global ensemble forecast
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu


Session 4B
Severe Weather Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS
CoChair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA
4:00 PM
4B.1
4:30 PM
4B.3
Unusual Severe Weather Outbreak over the Greater Phoenix Metropolitan Area on 28-29 August 2008
G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWSFO, Phoenix, AZ; and P. M. Iñiguez, J. W. Rogers, and M. Leuthold
5:00 PM
4B.5
Operational forecasting of tornado locations: a verification study of "pathcasts"
Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and D. Speheger, A. R. Dean, K. L. Ortega, and K. Manross
5:15 PM
4B.6
Forecast guidance for severe thunderstorms based on identification of extreme phenomena in convection-allowing model forecasts
Ryan Sobash, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, A. R. Dean, M. C. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, and J. J. Levit

Tuesday, 2 June 2009

7:45 AM-9:00 AM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Joint Session 1
Keynote Address
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Moderator: Peter P. Neilley, The Weather Company
Chair: Peter P. Neilley, The Weather Company
CoChair: R. Bruce Telfeyan, 557th Weather Wing
7:45 AM
Welcoming Remarks

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Joint Session 2
Center Updates Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame
CoChair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR
9:00 AM
J2.1
An Update of USAF Modeling and Forecast Initiatives
John Egentowich, Air Force Weather, Washington, DC
9:30 AM
J2.2
Modeling and Forecast Update
Louis W. Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Joint Session 3
Center Updates Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR
10:30 AM
J3.1
Environment Canada: Modeling and Forecast Update
Gilbert Brunet, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
11:00 AM
J3.2
Modeling and Forecast Update (tentative)
Dale Barker, United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
11:30 AM
J3.3

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Session 5A
Modeling at Various Scales
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: John V. Zapotocny, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL
1:30 PM
5A.1
1:45 PM
5A.2
Comparison between ARW and NMM objective forecast verification scores
Ligia Bernardet, OAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Wolff, L. Nance, A. Loughe, B. Weatherhead, E. Gilleland, and B. Brown
2:00 PM
5A.3
Medium-range extratropical cyclone errors and their origin within the NCEP GFS model
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY ; and M. Charles
2:15 PM
5A.4
Spatial and temporal object-based evaluation of numerical precipitation forecasts
Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and R. Bullock
2:30 PM
5A.5
Evaluation of model performance and possible improvements of microphysical parameterizations by using radar data
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, T. Vukicevic, and M. van Lier-Walqui
2:45 PM
5A.6
Using “Pseudo” RAOB Observations to Study GFS Skill Score Dropouts
Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and D. L. Carlis, B. A. Ballish, and V. K. Kumar

Session 5B
Societal Impacts of Weather Forecasts
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Kelly Mahoney, North Carolina State University
CoChair: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
1:30 PM
5B.1
1:45 PM
5B.2
The 22 May 2008 Weld County, Colorado tornado: Analysis of meteorological conditions and the communication of weather information
Russ S. Schumacher, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. T. Lindsey, A. B. Schumacher, J. Braun, S. D. Miller, and J. Demuth
2:00 PM
5B.3
Utility Sector Wind Power Forecasting: Status and Measurement Needs
Marc Schwartz, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and E. Ela
2:15 PM
5B.4
Assessment of weather-related non-recurring congestion on Utah's highways: Investigation of event impacts from the winter of 2008-09'
Ralph Patterson, Utah Dept of Transportation, Salt Lake City, UT; and R. Graham, K. Barjenbruch, G. Blackwelder, B. Hansen, M. Holts, J. Miller, M. Seaman, J. Williams, and A. Yocom
2:45 PM
5B.6
Next generation warning services in the National Weather Service
Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and J. T. Ferree and E. Jacks

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Joint Poster Session 2
Joint Poster Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
JP2.1
Application of a QPF-POP relationship to ensembles to generate better probabilistic precipitation forecasts
Christopher J. Schaffer, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and M. Segal

Handout (1.2 MB)

JP2.2
A Case Study of a Wake Low in northern Illinois and the WRF model prediction of the Wake Low
William H. Wilson, NOAA/NWSFO, Romeoville, IL; and E. Janzon

Handout (2.2 MB)

JP2.3
Factors contributing to sensitivity in the observed overland reintensification of TC Erin (2007) over Oklahoma
Clark Evans, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. J. Galarneau Jr. and R. S. Schumacher

Handout (106.5 kB)

JP2.5
A technique for creating composite sea surface temperatures from NASA's MODIS instruments in order to improve numerical weather prediction
Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. L. Rife, J. A. Grim, A. N. Hahmann, and J. P. Hacker

Handout (1.5 MB)

JP2.6
Methodology for the Determination of 12-Foot Sea Radii for Tropical Cyclones
Jessica Schauer Clark, NHC, Miami, FL; and H. D. Cobb III and J. P. Cangialosi

JP2.7
Effects of beam broadening and earth curvature in radar data assimilation
Guoqing Ge, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, K. A. Brewster, and M. Xue

Handout (1.9 MB)

JP2.8
Investigation of the WRF-Simulated Visibility Parameter in Comparison to Observational Data
Philip D. Hayes, Northrop Grumman, Chantilly, VA; and E. M. Kemp and R. J. Alliss

JP2.10
Recent grid verification highlights in the NWS Eastern Region
David B. Radell, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and J. Watson and D. R. Novak

Handout (695.4 kB)

JP2.11
A tall tower study of the impact of the Low-level jet on wind speed and shear at turbine heights
Ali Koleiny, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and K. E. Cooley and N. I. Fox

Handout (681.1 kB)

JP2.12
Verifying the boundary layer properties over heterogeneous surfaces using the LEAD portal
Miliaritiana Landy Robjhon, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD; and E. Joseph and J. D. Fuentes

JP2.13
Development of a new bulk microphysical parameterization with varying riming intensity and its evaluation within WRF
Yanluan Lin, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; and B. A. Colle


Coffee Break with Poster Viewing
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Session 6A
Statistical Techniques: MOS and Operational Forecast Support
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA
CoChair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR
4:30 PM
6A.3
The NMM MOS replacement for the Eta MOS
Joseph C. Maloney III, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and E. Engle, P. Shafer, and G. Wagner
4:45 PM
6A.4
5:00 PM
6A.5
5:15 PM
6A.6
Gridded Model Output Statistics: improving and expanding
Kathryn K. Gilbert, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. L. Cosgrove, K. L. Sheets, and G. A. Wagner

Session 6B
Tropical Weather Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Joseph A. Zehnder, Creighton University
CoChair: John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS
4:00 PM
6B.1
Tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities: Operational results and future applications
Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown, R. D. Knabb, M. DeMaria, A. B. Schumacher, and J. Knaff
4:15 PM
6B.2
Objective Evaluation for the High Resolution Hurricane Test Plan
Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet, B. G. Brown, S. Bao, C. W. Harrop, J. Wolff, and T. Jensen
4:30 PM
6B.3

6:00 PM-10:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Tuesday Night Baseball Game (See General Info for details) Tickets not included in registration.

Wednesday, 3 June 2009

8:00 AM-9:00 AM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Session 7A
Microphysical Processes in Modeling
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
CoChair: James Doyle, NRL
8:15 AM
7A.2
8:45 AM
7A.4
An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation
Louie Grasso, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. T. Lindsey

Session 7B
Severe Weather Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
8:30 AM
7B.3
Composite analysis of environmental conditions favorable for significant tornadoes across eastern Kansas
Joshua M. Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and G. Phillips, W. Gargan, J. Leighton, and B. Mayes Boustead
8:45 AM
7B.4
Convection and Appalachian cold-air damming
Adam K. Baker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
8:00 AM
7B.1
The climatology and organization of convection over the Northeast United States
John Murray, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and K. Lombardo

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Session 8A
Radar Data Assimilation
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
CoChair: Steven Rugg, Air Force Weather Agency
9:00 AM
8A.1
The Relative Importance of Assimilating Radial Velocity and Reflectivity Data
Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. Ge and D. J. Stensrud
9:15 AM
8A.2
A multi-case assessment of the ensemble Kalman filter for assimilation of radar observations
Altug Aksoy, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL; and D. Dowell and C. Snyder
9:45 AM
8A.4

Session 8B
Forecasting Tools/Techniques Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jeffrey S. Tongue, NOAA/NWSFO
CoChair: Jeffrey D. Cetola, United States Air Force Weather Requirements
9:00 AM
8B.1
Cold-Air Damming Erosion: Physical Mechanisms and Numerical Prediction
Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
9:15 AM
8B.2
Detect cloud icing conditions using CloudSat datasets
Michael P. Kay, NOAA/ESRL/CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and C. Lu, P. Li, S. Madine, and J. Mahoney
9:30 AM
8B.3
Moving quasigeostrophic theory into the 21st century
Eric Thaler, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and P. Nutter
9:45 AM
8B.4

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Session 9A
Data Assimilation: Error covariances and hybrid methods
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
CoChair: Steven Rugg, Air Force Weather Agency
10:30 AM
9A.1
Status report on Rapid Refresh development
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, M. Hu, J. M. Brown, D. Dévényi, S. G. Benjamin, W. R. Moninger, S. E. Peckham, G. A. Grell, K. J. Brundage, B. D. Jamison, C. W. Harrop, and J. B. Olson
11:00 AM
9A.3
Impacts of different background error covariance matrices on 4DVAR data assimilation
Lei Zhang, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. Qiu and Z. Pu
11:15 AM
9A.4
A hybrid ensemble Kalman filter approach to data assimilation in a two-dimensional shallow water model
Lili Lei, University of Colorado, CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and D. R. Stauffer
11:30 AM
9A.5
A Hybrid Data Assimilation System (WRF-VAR and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) Based Retrospective Tests with Real Observations
Meral Demirtas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Barker, Y. Chen, J. Hacker, X. Y. Huang, C. Snyder, and X. Wang
11:45 AM
9A.6
A comparison of the hybrid and EnSRF analysis schemes in the presence of model errors due to unresolved scales
Xuguang Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. Hamill, J. Whitaker, and C. H. Bishop

Session 9B
Mesoscale Convective Systems/Convection
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: C. C. Buonanno, NOAA/NWS
Cochairs: John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS; John P. Gagan, NOAA
10:30 AM
9B.1
Maintenance of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Great Lakes
Nicholas D. Metz, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and L. F. Bosart
10:45 AM
9B.2
MCS motion: The role of vertical momentum transport
Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. M. Lackmann
11:00 AM
9B.3
11:15 AM
9B.4
11:30 AM
9B.5
Using the GOES sounder to nearcast severe convection
Robert M. Aune, NOAA/NESDIS, Madison, WI; and R. A. Petersen

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Lunch Break

WAF/NWP Committee Luncheon
Location: Dakota (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Session 10A
Land Surface and Boundary Layer Effects on Modeling
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: J. Marc Hidalgo, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Yi Jin, NRL
1:30 PM
10A.1
1:45 PM
10A.2
Idealized simulations of circulations forced by land surface heterogeneity
Brian P. Reen, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. P. Tyndall, G. S. Young, and D. R. Stauffer
2:30 PM
10A.5
Sensitivity of a moist PBL turbulence parameterization on the NCEP GFS forecast
Jongil Han, SRG at NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and H. L. Pan

2:45 PM
10A.6
Impact of a New Thermal Roughness Length Treatment on the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)
Helin Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Zheng, J. Meng, M. Ek, K. Mitchell, X. Zeng, and Z. Wang

Session 10B
Winter Weather Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
1:45 PM
10B.2
Collision of a Pineapple Express with an arctic outbreak over complex terrains of British Columbia, Canada -- Forecast challenges and lessons learned
Ruping Mo, National Laboratory for Coastal and Mountain Meteorology, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and Q. Geng, M. Brugman, G. Pearce, J. Goosen, and B. Snyder
2:00 PM
10B.3
Modeling study of a winter extreme cold weather episode in the central Alaska basin using the NCAR WRF-RTFDDA system
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wu, G. Roux, T. Warner, S. Sawerdlin, J. Pace, and E. G. Astling
2:15 PM
10B.4
A Red Herring? In Search of the Cold Occluded Cyclone
Patrick S. Market, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and K. Crandall, M. H. M. Anip, and A. R. Lupo
2:30 PM
10B.5
2:45 PM
10B.6
The North Texas convective snow event of 6 March 2008
Nicholas L. Hampshire, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX; and T. M. Ryan

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Joint Poster Session 3
Joint Poster Part III
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
JP3.1
Growth of spread in convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensembles
Adam J. Clark, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong

Handout (1.2 MB)

JP3.3
Impact of dual-polorimetric radar data assimilation on short-term rainfall forecast of two convective systems
Xuanli Li, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski and L. Carey

JP3.4
Relating snowfall patterns over the central and eastern US to infrared imagery of extratropical cyclone comma heads
Darren Van Cleave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. F. Dostalek and T. H. Vonder Haar

Handout (2.8 MB)

JP3.5
A Predecessor Rain Event over the Upper Midwest Associated with Tropical Cyclone Rita (2005)
Benjamin J. Moore, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

JP3.8
JP3.9
JP3.10
Winter Weather Guidance from Regional Historical Analogs
Chad M. Gravelle, CIMSS - Univ. of Wisconsin / NWS Operations Proving Ground, Kansas City, MO; and C. E. Graves, J. P. Gagan, F. H. Glass, and M. S. Evans

Handout (3.0 MB)

JP3.11
Significant rime ice events in Utah's Wasatch Mountains: Impacts and conceptual models
Randy Graham, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. R. Neuman

JP3.12
JP3.13
Preferential Storm Pathways and Mountain Precipitation over the Intermountain West
Matthew E. Jeglum, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh


Coffee Break with Poster Viewing - Sponsored by Raytheon
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Session 11A
Data Assimilation: Profiling and satellite data assimilation
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Steven Rugg, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri
4:00 PM
11A.1
4:15 PM
11A.2
Profiler assessment and ongoing profiler observation quality monitoring using the Rapid Update Cycle
Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Moninger, S. G. Benjamin, and S. Sahm
4:30 PM
11A.3
Data assimilation strategies in the planetary boundary layer
Brian P. Reen, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer
4:45 PM
11A.4
Comprehensive Test-Rig for WRF data Assimilation Developments at NCAR Data Assimilation Testbed Center
Hui Shao, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and X. Y. Huang, Z. Liu, T. Auligne, M. Demirtas, S. Rizvi, and H. Lin
5:00 PM
11A.5
Bias correction in the ensemble-based data assimilation system for the NCEP GFS model
Xuguang Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Whitaker and T. Hamill
5:15 PM
11A.6
Improvement of land surface skin temperature in NCEP operational NWP models and its impact on satellite data assimilation
Weizhong Zheng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Wei, J. Meng, M. Ek, K. Mitchell, J. C. Derber, X. Zeng, and Z. Wang

Session 11B
Winter Weather Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State University
CoChair: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
4:45 PM
11B.4
Secrets of the "Greatest Snow on Earth"
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and T. I. Alcott

5:00 PM
11B.5
Climatology and prediction of snow-to-liquid ratio in the central Wasatch Mountains
Trevor I. Alcott, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh
5:15 PM
11B.6

Thursday, 4 June 2009

8:00 AM-9:00 AM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Session 12A
Modeling Results from Field Studies
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Gordon R. Brooks, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame
8:00 AM
12A.1
8:30 AM
12A.3
8:45 AM
12A.4

Session 12B
Forecasting Tools/Techniques Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA
CoChair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA
8:00 AM
12B.1
Integration of LEAD and WRF Portal technologies to enable advanced research, operations and education in mesoscale meteorology
Craig Mattocks, University of North Carolina, Morehead City, NC; and K. K. Droegemeier and R. B. Wilhelmson
8:15 AM
12B.2
Integration of a real time high resolution ensemble system into National Weather Service hydrometeorological operations
Jeffrey S. Tongue, NOAA/NWSFO, Upton, NY; and N. Furbush, A. Leptich, A. M. Cope, R. Kruzdlo, J. Ostrowski, B. A. Colle, and M. J. Erickson
8:30 AM
12B.3
An overview of the GOES-R Proving Ground: current forecaster interactions and future plans
Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. D. Miller, M. DeMaria, A. S. Bachmeier, J. Gerth, R. Schneider, J. Gurka, S. Goodman, and K. K. Fuell
8:45 AM
12B.4
The CIMSS/ASPB component of the GOES-R Proving Ground Program
Jordan Gerth, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. S. Bachmeier

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Session 13A
Modeling for Research and Operational Support
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Charles E. Skupniewicz, FNMOC
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
9:15 AM
13A.2
The WRF Developmental Testbed Center: Accomplishments and Outlook
Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. L. Gall, S. Koch, and L. R. Bernardet

9:30 AM
13A.3
An overview of operational FNMOC mesoscale cloud forecast support
Roger A. Stocker, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and J. E. Nachamkin
9:45 AM
13A.4
Overview of atmospheric global modeling and research at NRL
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Flatau, J. Hansen, E. Hendricks, T. Hogan, V. Khade, Y. J. Kim, R. Langland, M. Liu, J. McLay, M. Peng, J. Ridout, and T. Whitcomb
9:00 AM
13A.1
Investigation of NCEP GFS Model Forecast Skill "Dropout" Characteristics using the EBI Index
V. Krishna Kumar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD MD; and J. C. Alpert, D. L. Carlis, and B. A. Ballish

Session 13B
Tropical Weather Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Joseph A. Zehnder, Creighton University
CoChair: J. Marc Hidalgo, Air Force Weather Agency
9:00 AM
13B.1
A tropical cyclone analysis system for COAMPS-TC
Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Sashegyi

9:15 AM
13B.2
9:30 AM
13B.3
14 September 2008 Ohio Valley high wind event associated with the remnants of Hurricane Ike
Elizabeth M. Stoppkotte, NOAA/NWSFO, Louisville, KY; and A. Lese, S. Pavlow, and R. Baker
9:45 AM
13B.4

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Session 14A
Modeling, Data Assimilation and Applications
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Steven Rugg, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Michael D. McAtee, Aerospace Corporation
11:00 AM
14A.2
FNMOC Operational Aerosol Modeling and Derived Products
Charles E. Skupniewicz, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and T. Duffy, D. L. Westphal, and C. A. Curtis
11:15 AM
14A.3
Operational application of NAVDAS 3DVAR Analysis for COAMPS-OS
Keith D. Sashegyi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Pauley, M. D. Frost, R. L. Pauley, and D. Geiszler
11:30 AM
14A.4
Applications of the COAMPS adjoint model
Clark M. Amerault, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle
11:45 AM
14A.5

Session 14B
Tropical Weather Part III
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS
CoChair: Joseph A. Zehnder, Creighton University
10:30 AM
14B.1
Developing Hurricane Related Inland Flooding Forecasts at EMC
Yihua Wu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and I.M. Systems Group, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, K. Mitchell, V. Tallapragada, R. Tuleya, and Y. Xia
10:45 AM
14B.2
Impacts of Initial and Boundary Conditions on Hurricane Katrina Track Forecasts
Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, Y. Jin, M. S. Peng, R. M. Hodur, T. Campbell, and S. Gabersek

11:00 AM
14B.3
Forecast errors associated with Hurricane Rita (2005)
Eyad H. Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. McTaggart-Cowan and J. R. Gyakum
11:15 AM
14B.4
11:30 AM
14B.5
Examination of the tropical cyclone environment through comparison of COSMIC with other satellite data
Christopher M. Hill, Mississippi State Univ., Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. J. Fitzpatrick and Y. Lau
11:45 AM
14B.6
Understanding Sensitivity of Hurricane Intensity to Ice Nuclei Concentration Formulations
Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle, J. Schmidt, Q. Zhao, and S. Wang

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Session 15A
Data Assimilation: RTMA and Rapid Refresh
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Clinton M. Rowe, University of Nebraska
CoChair: Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska
1:30 PM
15A.1
Experiments with anisotropic background error correlations in the Rapid Refresh system
Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, M. Hu, and S. G. Benjamin
1:45 PM
15A.2
Recent improvements to the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
Manuel Pondeca, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. S. Manikin
2:00 PM
15A.3
Wind Gust Speed Analysis in RTMA
Yanqiu Zhu, EMC/I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and G. DiMego, J. Derber, M. Pondeca, G. Manikin, R. Treadon, D. Parrish, and J. Purser
2:15 PM
15A.4
Sensitivity of surface temperature analyses to background and observation errors
Daniel Tyndall, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel
2:30 PM
15A.5
Adaptation and implementation of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) for Rapid Refresh
Ming Hu, GSD/ESRL/NOAA and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. Devenyi, S. S. Weygandt, and S. G. Benjamin
2:45 PM
15A.6
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): an hourly updated convection resolving model utilizing radar reflectivity assimilation from the RUC / RR
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, S. G. Benjamin, K. J. Brundage, S. R. Sahm, C. R. Alexander, and B. E. Schwartz

Session 15B
Statistical Techniques Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
1:30 PM
15B.1
Recent enhancements to the Model Evaluation Tools (METv2.0)
John Halley Gotway, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Bullock, S. Sullivan, and T. L. Fowler
1:45 PM
15B.2
Verification of mesoscale cloud forecasts utilizing composite and fuzzy techniques
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt, C. Mitrescu, and R. A. Stocker
2:00 PM
15B.3
Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a proof of concept
Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWSFO, Tulsa, OK; and G. Wiley
2:15 PM
15B.4
Evaluation of Experimental Forecasts from the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, L. Nance, S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio
2:30 PM
15B.5
Operational 2-h thunderstorm guidance forecasts to 24 hours on a 20-km grid
Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky
2:45 PM
15B.6
Monitoring observation-model differences in the real time Rapid Refrash System
Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Moninger, S. R. Sahm, M. Hu, S. G. Benjamin, and S. S. Weygandt

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Joint Poster Session 4
Joint Poster Part IV
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
JP4.2
The Navy's global atmospheric ensemble forecast system
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop, M. Flatau, D. Hodyss, S. Klotz, J. Ridout, J. McLay, C. Reynolds, M. Sestak, and P. Whitman

JP4.7
Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast calibration over South America: Experiments with a short range regional ensemble
Juan J. Ruiz, Dept of Atmospheric Sciences (FCEyn-UBA) and CIMA (CONICET/UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina; and A. C. Saulo and E. Kalnay

Handout (259.0 kB)

JP4.8
Development of a Sounding-Based Prediction Model for Phoenix, Arizona
Jaret W. Rogers, NOAA/NWSFO Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ

Handout (91.4 kB)

JP4.9
NOGAPS ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone genesis: Evaluation during T-PARC/TCS-08
Andrew Snyder, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu and C. A. Reynolds

JP4.10
Objective analysis of meteorologically significant events over the Central United States 1948-2008
Mark O'Malley, NOAA/NWS, Plesant Hill, MO; and B. Mayes Boustead, R. Grumm, J. M. Boustead, and S. Fortin

JP4.11 has been moved to JP3.13

JP4.12
Using gridded MOS techniques to derive snowfall climatologies
Michael N. Baker, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and K. L. Sheets and G. A. Wagner

Handout (766.2 kB)

JP4.13

Coffee Break with Poster Viewing
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Session 16A
Ensemble Forecasting Systems and Field Support
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL
4:00 PM
16A.1
E-4DWX: An Operational Mesoscale Ensemble Modeling System
Scott F. Halvorson, U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, UT; and S. Krippner, J. Pace, Y. Liu, G. Roux, W. Wu, J. P. Hacker, T. M. Hopson, J. C. Knievel, T. T. Warner, and S. P. Swerdlin
4:15 PM
16A.2
CAPS REALTIME 4-KM MULTI-MODEL CONVECTION-ALLOWING ENSEMBLE AND 1-KM CONVECTION-RESOLVING FORECASTS FOR THE NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED 2009 SPRING EXPERIMENT
Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. Kong, K. Thomas, J. Gao, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du
4:30 PM
16A.3
A real-time storm-scale ensemble forecast system: 2009 Spring Experiment
Fanyou Kong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. A. Brewster, J. Gao, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du
4:45 PM
16A.4
An operational mesoscale ensemble data assimilation and prediction system: E-RTFDDA – system description and verification
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Hopson, G. Roux, J. Hacker, W. Wu, T. Warner, S. Swerdlin, S. F. Halvorson, and J. Pace
5:00 PM
16A.5
5:15 PM
16A.6

Session 16B
Statistical Techniques Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL
CoChair: Charles E. Skupniewicz, FNMOC
4:00 PM
16B.1
Verifying vectors
Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Fowler
4:15 PM
16B.2
The spatial verification method intercomparison project
D. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gilleland, B. Brown, and E. Ebert
4:30 PM
16B.3
Utilizing standardized anomalies to assess synoptic scale weather events in the central United States
Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and M. O'Malley, S. Fortin, J. M. Boustead, and R. Grumm
4:45 PM
16B.4
NAEFS based bias correction and statistical down scaling
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and Z. Toth
5:15 PM
16B.6
Ensemble-derived estimation of wind uncertainty using a linear variance calibration for probabilistic weather applications
Walter C. Kolczynski Jr., Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, S. E. Haupt, and A. Deng

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Session
WAF/NWP Conference Picture Show and Contest
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Friday, 5 June 2009

8:00 AM-9:00 AM: Friday, 5 June 2009


Session 17A
Ensemble Forecasting Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Peter Neilley, WSI, Corp
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
8:00 AM
17A.1
Mesoscale ensemble prediction for model improvement: atmospheric ducting example
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Holt, M. Sestak, and J. Doyle

8:30 AM
17A.3
Probabilistic nowcasting of PBL profiles with surface observations and an ensemble filter
Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, Israel Institute for Biological Research, Ness-Ziona, Israel; and J. P. Hacker
8:45 AM
17A.4
On-line diagnosis and optimization of ensemble forecasts
Tomislava Vukicevic, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and I. Jankov and J. A. McGinley


Session 17B
Forecasting Tools/Techniques Part III
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri-Columbia
CoChair: Rick S. Chermok, NWSFO
8:00 AM
17B.1
Of weather prediction without models
M. Jeremie Lafitte (Levitas), WMN Predictions, Tverya, Galil, Israel; and G. Lafitte

8:15 AM
17B.2
Hi-res gridded MOS 6-h qpf guidance
Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky
8:30 AM
17B.3
A versatile WRF and MM5-based weather analysis and forecasting system for supporting wind energy prediction
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Warner, W. Wu, G. Roux, W. Cheng, Y. Liu, F. Chen, L. Delle-Monache, W. Mahoney, and S. Swerdlin
8:45 AM
17B.4
A Portable Mesoscale Prediction System for MODIS Direct Broadcast Sites
Robert M. Aune, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/ASPB, Madison, WI; and K. I. Strabala, S. S. Lindstrom, and A. Huang

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 5 June 2009


Session 18A
Modeling Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: J. Marc Hidalgo, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
9:00 AM
18A.1
An examination of FIM performance for a variety of weather scenarios
Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, and M. Fiorino
9:30 AM
18A.3
Using a Calibrated Mesoscale Ensemble to Improve Precipitation and Hydrological Forecasts over the Northeast U.S
Michael J. Erickson, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, J. S. Tongue, A. M. Cope, and J. T. Ostrowski
9:45 AM
18A.4
Implementation and testing of WRF Digital Filter Initialization (DFI) at NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory
Tatiana G. Smirnova, CIRES University of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Peckham, S. G. Benjamin, and J. M. Brown

Session 18B
Forecasting Tools/Techniques Part IV
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri-Columbia
CoChair: Gordon R. Brooks, Air Force Weather Agency
9:15 AM
18B.2
Mesoscale Modeling for Radar Propagation Prediction during the Wallops-2000 Experiment
Changgui Wang, Meteorological Office, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and P. Clark, T. Haack, and S. Millington
9:30 AM
18B.3
Dynamic Structure of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Nested Modeling and Observations
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Wang, P. Martin, J. Cummings, L. W. O'Neill, Q. Wang, L. Romero, and W. K. Melville

9:45 AM
18B.4
Sub-kilometer numerical predictions in the nocturnal stable boundary layer
David R. Stauffer, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and B. J. Gaudet, N. L. Seaman, J. C. Wyngaard, L. Mahrt, and S. Richardson

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 5 June 2009


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 5 June 2009


Session 19A
Modeling Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: J. Marc Hidalgo, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
10:30 AM
19A.1
An adaptive time-step for increased model efficiency
Todd A. Hutchinson, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA
10:45 AM
19A.2
11:00 AM
19A.3
On the use of support vector machines to evaluate the capability of the WRF to discriminate tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks
Chad M. Shafer, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK ; and L. M. Leslie, M. Richman, and C. A. Doswell III
11:15 AM
19A.4
The nonhydrostatic icosahedral model (NIM)
Jin Lee, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald
11:30 AM
19A.5
The Process of Thunderstorm Generation by Bores
Steven Koch, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO

Session 19B
Ensemble Forecasting Part III
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame
CoChair: Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA
10:45 AM
19B.2
Probabilistic thunderstorm guidance from a time-lagged ensemble of High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecasts
Curtis R. Alexander, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Koch, S. S. Weygandt, T. G. Smirnova, S. G. Benjamin, and H. Yuan
11:15 AM
19B.4

12:00 PM-12:05 PM: Friday, 5 June 2009


Conference Ends