23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

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Sunday, 31 May 2009

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5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 31 May 2009


Registration Opens
Location: Grand Ballroom Foyer (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

Monday, 1 June 2009

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7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Registration Continues Throughout the Conference
Location: Grand Ballroom Foyer (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Session 1A
Real-Time Modeling and Analysis
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame
CoChair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
8:45 AM
Welcoming Remarks

9:00 AM
1A.1
Challenges with the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Pondeca
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (745.2 kB)

9:15 AM
1A.2
Real-Time High Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Forecasts for Incident Meteorologists
Alexander O. Tardy, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

9:30 AM
1A.3
Realtime high-resolution mesoscale modeling for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency
David R. Stauffer, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and G. K. Hunter, A. Deng, J. R. Zielonka, K. Dedrick, C. Broadwater, A. Grose, C. Pavloski, and J. Toffler
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.5 MB)

9:45 AM
1A.4
Real-time testing and description of the FIM global model
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and J. Lee, R. Bleck, J. W. Bao, A. E. MacDonald, J. M. Brown, T. Henderson, J. Middlecoff, C. Harrop, N. Wang, W. Moninger, G. Grell, S. Sahm, and B. Jamison


Session 1B
High Impact Weather Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Moderator: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
Chair: Kelly Mahoney, North Carolina State University
CoChair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA
8:45 AM
Welcoming Remarks
Recorded presentation

9:00 AM
1B.1
Have New England heat waves been influenced by forest cover trends?
Frank P. Colby Jr., Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA; and M. Barlow
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (580.7 kB)

9:15 AM
1B.2
Discrete Frontal Propagation over the Sierra–Cascade Mountains and Intermountain West
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. R. Neuman, G. L. West, and L. F. Bosart
Recorded presentation

9:30 AM
1B.3
Life cycle and mesoscale frontal structure of an Intermountain cyclone
Gregory L. West, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. J. Steenburgh
Recorded presentation

9:45 AM
1B.4
The historic flash flood event of 18-19 August 2007 in the Upper Mississippi River Valley: impacts of terrain and societal response
Seth Binau, NOAA/NWS, La Crosse, WI

Presentation PDF (580.0 kB)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Session 2A
Model Overviews and Recent Updates
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame
CoChair: W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah
10:30 AM
2A.1
WRF Reference Configurations
Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Nance, L. R. Bernardet, and B. G. Brown
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (494.9 kB)

10:45 AM
2A.2
Renovation of JMA-GSM
Kengo Miyamoto, AESTO/JMA, Tokyo, Japan

11:00 AM
2A.3
Overview of NRL's mesoscale modeling system and research
James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, S. Chen, S. Gabersek, T. Haack, E. Hendricks, R. M. Hodur, T. R. Holt, Q. Jiang, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, P. May, J. E. Nachamkin, L. W. O'Neill, P. A. Reinecke, J. M. Schmidt, W. T. Thompson, and S. Wang
Recorded presentation

11:15 AM
2A.4
The NCEP North American Mesoscale Modeling System : Recent changes and future plans
Eric Rogers, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and G. DiMego, T. Black, M. Ek, B. Ferrier, G. Gayno, Z. Janjic, Y. Lin, M. Pyle, V. Wong, W. S. Wu, and J. Carley
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.0 MB)

11:30 AM
2A.5
Recent advances in weather and climate prediction at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
William M. Lapenta, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord, J. Ward, G. DiMego, H. L. Tolman, J. C. Derber, H. L. Pan, N. Surgi, Z. Toth, and M. Ek
Recorded presentation

11:45 AM
2A.6
The NOAA Environmental Modeling System at NCEP
Thomas Black, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang and M. Iredell
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (23.9 kB)


Session 2B
High Impact Weather Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
CoChair: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
10:30 AM
2B.1
Development of an Alpine lee cyclone during MAP D-PHASE: forcings for cyclogeneis
R. McTaggart-Cowan, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and T. J. Galarneau Jr. and L. F. Bosart
Recorded presentation

10:45 AM
2B.2
Storms on the rock: Synoptic-scale characteristics and typing of cool-season precipitation events at St. John's, Newfoundland (1979-2005)
Shawn M. Milrad, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. Atallah and J. R. Gyakum
Recorded presentation

11:00 AM
2B.3
An Analysis of a High Impact 500-hPa Cutoff Cyclone from the 2008 Warm Season
Matthew Scalora, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, N. A. Stuart, and T. A. Wasula
Recorded presentation

11:15 AM
2B.4
A downslope windstorm in New Jersey? An analysis of the 4 January 2009 high-wind event
Steven G. Decker, Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ; and D. A. Robinson and N. Stefano
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (554.9 kB)

11:30 AM
2B.5
Meteorological analysis of an extreme Beaufort coastal storm surge event
John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. Small and E. Atallah
Recorded presentation

11:45 AM
2B.6
Analysis of model forecasts of maximum temperature before and after cold front passages in the southern plains
Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWSFO, Tulsa, OK
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.2 MB)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Session 3A
Data Assimilation: Overview
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Peter P. Neilley, The Weather Company
CoChair: Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma
1:30 PM
3A.1
(Invited talk) Assimilation of satellite data in improving high-impact weather forecasting: Progress, Challenge and Development
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT
Recorded presentation

2:00 PM
3A.2
Full OSSEs with International Collaboration
Lars Peter Riishojgaard, JCSDA, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Masutani, J. S. Woollen, N. Prive, Y. Xie, L. Cucurull, A. Stoffelen, G. J. Marseille, G. D. Emmitt, E. Andersson, T. Zhu, F. Weng, and S. J. Lord
Recorded presentation

2:15 PM
3A.3
The Canadian LAM 3D-Var continental analysis system
Ervig Lapalme, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and L. Fillion, M. Tanguay, S. R. Macpherson, and B. Denis
Recorded presentation

2:30 PM
3A.4
The Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation system at the Naval Research Laboratory
Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Sashegyi, T. Holt, C. Bishop, F. Zhang, and Q. Xu
Recorded presentation

2:45 PM
3A.5
Efficient situation-dependent covariance generation using recursive filters and the methods of Riemannian geometry
R. James Purser, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (81.1 kB)


Session 3B
High Impact Weather Part III
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA
CoChair: Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
1:30 PM
3B.1
Seasonal climate variability and predictability issues associated with recurving tropical cyclones, an extreme Arctic ridge, and a land-falling atmospheric river from 27 November to 5 December 2007
Jason M. Cordeira, Univ. of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
Recorded presentation

1:45 PM
3B.2
A climatology of high lapse rates and their influence on heat waves east of the Rocky Mountains
Jason M. Cordeira, Univ. of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. J. Galarneau Jr. and L. F. Bosart
Recorded presentation

2:00 PM
3B.3
Observational and numerical studies of rapid warm front passages
Todd M. Kluber, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. H. Carr
Recorded presentation

2:15 PM
3B.4
Ongoing development of an experimental, real-time prediction system for high-impact convective weather events
Jacob Carley, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and M. Baldwin, J. Trapp, J. Kwiatkowski, J. Logsdon, and S. J. Weiss
Recorded presentation

2:30 PM
3B.5
Real-time forecasting for New York City and its surroundings, with emphasis on sea breezes and other coastal circulations
Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. L. Rife, J. A. Grim, and M. Ge
Recorded presentation

2:45 PM
3B.6
Processes and predictability in recent widespread heavy rain and flood events
Russ S. Schumacher, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.8 MB)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Joint Poster Session 1
Joint Posters Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
JP1.1
On the Negative Water Vapor in the NCEP GFS: Sources and Solution
Fanglin Yang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

JP1.2
Numerical simulation of local circulation in the lake area around Daejeon, Korea
Jae-Young Byon, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. J. Choi and B. K. Seo

JP1.3
Cool-Season Severe Weather in the Northeast U.S
Jonas Asuma, SUNY/ University at Albany, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, J. S. Quinlan, and T. A. Wasula

JP1.4
Boundary-driven versa internal variability in limited-area ensemble systems for the short-range

JP1.5
A radiosonde system for the University of Missouri: An informal study of a decaying thunderstorm near Columbia, Missouri
Cody Lee Fritz, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market, N. I. Fox, S. Skibinski, and A. R. Lupo

Handout (395.3 kB)

JP1.6
High-resolution simulated ABI datasets used for GOES-R research activities
Jason A. Otkin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and T. Greenwald, J. Sieglaff, M. M. Gunshor, K. Bah, T. J. Schmit, A. Huang, and S. Wanzong

JP1.7
An intercomparison of T-REX mountain wave simulations
James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Gabersek, L. R. Bernardet, J. M. Brown, A. Doernbrack, E. Filaus, V. Grubisic, Q. Jiang, D. J. Kirshbaum, O. Knoth, S. Koch, I. Stiperski, S. Vosper, and S. Zhong

JP1.8
Numerical Accuracy of the Regional Spectral Method used in NCEP RSM
Jun Wang, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and H. M. H. Juang

JP1.9
Sensitivity of a simulated landfalling typhoon to soil moisture initialization
Kun-Young Byun, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and Y. J. Lim and T. Y. Lee

Handout (327.1 kB)

JP1.10
A detailed analysis of the nocturnal QLCS tornadoes that moved through Omaha, Nebraska, on 8 June 2008
Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and J. T. Martinelli and D. Nietfeld

Handout (459.5 kB)

JP1.11
A new approach to local modeling
James M. Frederick, NOAA/NWS, Tulsa, OK; and J. B. McGavock and S. F. Piltz

Handout (216.7 kB)

JP1.12
Development and testing of an operational mesoscale ensemble system
Teddy Holt, NRL, Monterey, California; and J. Hansen, C. Bishop, and M. Sestak

JP1.13
A Comparison of two Mellor-Yamada-based PBL schemes in Simulating a Hybrid Barrier Jet
Joseph B. Olson, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and National Research Council, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown

Handout (2.9 MB)


Coffee Break with Poster Viewing
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 1 June 2009


Session 4A
Ensemble Forecasting Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL
CoChair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame
4:00 PM
4A.1
AFWA's Joint Ensemble Forecast System Experiment
Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE; and T. Nobis, S. Rentschler, S. Rugg, J. Cunningham, J. Hughes, and M. Sittel
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (331.8 kB)

4:15 PM
4A.2
The Air Force Weather Agency's mesoscale ensemble: scientific description and recent results
Joshua Hacker, NRL, CA; and C. Snyder, S. Ha, J. Schramm, M. Pocernich, and D. Dowell
Recorded presentation

4:30 PM
4A.3
Representing Model Error in the AWFA Joint Mesoscale Ensemble by a Stochastic Kinetic Backscatter Scheme
Judith Berner, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Fournier, S. Y. Ha, J. Hacker, and C. Snyder

4:45 PM
4A.4
Recent upgrade of NCEP short-range ensemble forecast (SREF) system
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and G. Dimego, Z. Toth, D. Jovic, B. Zhou, J. Zhu, J. Wang, and H. Juang
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.8 MB)

5:00 PM
4A.5
Upgrade of NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, R. Wobus, D. Hou, and B. Cui

5:15 PM
4A.6
The impact of a stochastic perturbation scheme on hurricane prognosis in NCEP global ensemble forecast
Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu


Session 4B
Severe Weather Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS
CoChair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA
4:00 PM
4B.1
RADAR characteristics of the July, 2008 New Hampshire tornado: precursor and tornadogenesis stages
John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS, Gray, ME; and D. St. Jean and M. Cempa
Recorded presentation

4:15 PM
4B.2
A preliminary investigation of the 27 June 2008 damaging wind event in the Omaha metro and surrounding areas
Brian E. Smith, NOAA/NWS Valley, NE, Valley, NE; and B. Mayes Boustead
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.6 MB)

4:30 PM
4B.3
Unusual Severe Weather Outbreak over the Greater Phoenix Metropolitan Area on 28-29 August 2008
G. Douglas Green, NOAA/NWSFO, Phoenix, AZ; and P. M. Iñiguez, J. W. Rogers, and M. Leuthold
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)

4:45 PM
4B.4
The northern California lightning event of June 20-21, 2008
Mark Burger, NOAA/NWS, Olathe, KS
Recorded presentation

5:00 PM
4B.5
Operational forecasting of tornado locations: a verification study of "pathcasts"
Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and D. Speheger, A. R. Dean, K. L. Ortega, and K. Manross
Recorded presentation

5:15 PM
4B.6
Forecast guidance for severe thunderstorms based on identification of extreme phenomena in convection-allowing model forecasts
Ryan Sobash, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, D. R. Bright, A. R. Dean, M. C. Coniglio, S. J. Weiss, and J. J. Levit
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (669.8 kB)

Tuesday, 2 June 2009

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

7:45 AM-9:00 AM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Joint Session 1
Keynote Address
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Moderator: Peter P. Neilley, The Weather Company
Chair: Peter P. Neilley, The Weather Company
CoChair: R. Bruce Telfeyan, 557th Weather Wing
7:45 AM
Welcoming Remarks

8:00 AM
J1.1
Convective-scale Data Assimilation and Numerical Weather Prediction: Past, Present and Future
Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
Recorded presentation

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Joint Session 2
Center Updates Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame
CoChair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR
9:00 AM
J2.1
An Update of USAF Modeling and Forecast Initiatives
John Egentowich, Air Force Weather, Washington, DC
Recorded presentation

9:30 AM
J2.2
Modeling and Forecast Update
Louis W. Uccellini, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD
Recorded presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Joint Session 3
Center Updates Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR
10:30 AM
J3.1
Environment Canada: Modeling and Forecast Update
Gilbert Brunet, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recorded presentation

11:00 AM
J3.2
Modeling and Forecast Update (tentative)
Dale Barker, United Kingdom Meteorological Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recorded presentation

11:30 AM
J3.3
Current and Future Numerical Weather Prediction in the U.S. Navy
Simon W. Chang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Kusters
Recorded presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Session 5A
Modeling at Various Scales
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: John V. Zapotocny, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL
1:30 PM
5A.1
Further development of a model for a broad range of spatial and temporal scales
Zavisa Janjic, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

1:45 PM
5A.2
Comparison between ARW and NMM objective forecast verification scores
Ligia Bernardet, OAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Wolff, L. Nance, A. Loughe, B. Weatherhead, E. Gilleland, and B. Brown
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (381.7 kB)

2:00 PM
5A.3
Medium-range extratropical cyclone errors and their origin within the NCEP GFS model
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY ; and M. Charles
Recorded presentation

2:15 PM
5A.4
Spatial and temporal object-based evaluation of numerical precipitation forecasts
Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown and R. Bullock
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (218.6 kB)

2:30 PM
5A.5
Evaluation of model performance and possible improvements of microphysical parameterizations by using radar data
Isidora Jankov, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and S. Albers, T. Vukicevic, and M. van Lier-Walqui
Recorded presentation

2:45 PM
5A.6
Using “Pseudo” RAOB Observations to Study GFS Skill Score Dropouts
Jordan C. Alpert, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and D. L. Carlis, B. A. Ballish, and V. K. Kumar
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.2 MB)


Session 5B
Societal Impacts of Weather Forecasts
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Kelly Mahoney, North Carolina State University
CoChair: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
1:30 PM
5B.1
The impact of the Little Sioux Scout Ranch tornado of 11 June 2008
Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA, Valley, NE; and R. Griffis
Recorded presentation

1:45 PM
5B.2
The 22 May 2008 Weld County, Colorado tornado: Analysis of meteorological conditions and the communication of weather information
Russ S. Schumacher, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. T. Lindsey, A. B. Schumacher, J. Braun, S. D. Miller, and J. Demuth
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.4 MB)

2:00 PM
5B.3
Utility Sector Wind Power Forecasting: Status and Measurement Needs
Marc Schwartz, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and E. Ela
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (66.0 kB)

2:15 PM
5B.4
Assessment of weather-related non-recurring congestion on Utah's highways: Investigation of event impacts from the winter of 2008-09'
Ralph Patterson, Utah Dept of Transportation, Salt Lake City, UT; and R. Graham, K. Barjenbruch, G. Blackwelder, B. Hansen, M. Holts, J. Miller, M. Seaman, J. Williams, and A. Yocom
Recorded presentation

2:30 PM
5B.5
Estimating potential severe weather societal impacts using probabilistic forecasts issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center
Russell S. Schneider, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. R. Dean
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.6 MB)

2:45 PM
5B.6
Next generation warning services in the National Weather Service
Kevin A. Scharfenberg, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK ; and J. T. Ferree and E. Jacks
Recorded presentation

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Joint Poster Session 2
Joint Poster Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
JP2.1
Application of a QPF-POP relationship to ensembles to generate better probabilistic precipitation forecasts
Christopher J. Schaffer, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and M. Segal

Handout (1.2 MB)

JP2.2
A Case Study of a Wake Low in northern Illinois and the WRF model prediction of the Wake Low
William H. Wilson, NOAA/NWSFO, Romeoville, IL; and E. Janzon

Handout (2.2 MB)

JP2.3
Factors contributing to sensitivity in the observed overland reintensification of TC Erin (2007) over Oklahoma
Clark Evans, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. J. Galarneau Jr. and R. S. Schumacher

Handout (106.5 kB)

JP2.4
High Resolution WRF-ARW studies at the US Army Research Laboratory for use in short range forecast applications
Robert E. Dumais Jr., U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and J. E. Passner

Handout (742.3 kB)

JP2.5
A technique for creating composite sea surface temperatures from NASA's MODIS instruments in order to improve numerical weather prediction
Jason C. Knievel, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. L. Rife, J. A. Grim, A. N. Hahmann, and J. P. Hacker

Handout (1.5 MB)

JP2.6
Methodology for the Determination of 12-Foot Sea Radii for Tropical Cyclones
Jessica Schauer Clark, NHC, Miami, FL; and H. D. Cobb III and J. P. Cangialosi

JP2.7
Effects of beam broadening and earth curvature in radar data assimilation
Guoqing Ge, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, K. A. Brewster, and M. Xue

Handout (1.9 MB)

JP2.8
Investigation of the WRF-Simulated Visibility Parameter in Comparison to Observational Data
Philip D. Hayes, Northrop Grumman, Chantilly, VA; and E. M. Kemp and R. J. Alliss

JP2.9
Enhancement of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Additional Radiosonde Data for a High-Resolution a Mesoscale Modeling System

JP2.10
Recent grid verification highlights in the NWS Eastern Region
David B. Radell, NOAA/NWS, Bohemia, NY; and J. Watson and D. R. Novak

Handout (695.4 kB)

JP2.11
A tall tower study of the impact of the Low-level jet on wind speed and shear at turbine heights
Ali Koleiny, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and K. E. Cooley and N. I. Fox

Handout (681.1 kB)

JP2.12
Verifying the boundary layer properties over heterogeneous surfaces using the LEAD portal
Miliaritiana Landy Robjhon, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD; and E. Joseph and J. D. Fuentes

JP2.13
Development of a new bulk microphysical parameterization with varying riming intensity and its evaluation within WRF
Yanluan Lin, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ; and B. A. Colle


Coffee Break with Poster Viewing
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Session 6A
Statistical Techniques: MOS and Operational Forecast Support
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA
CoChair: Roger V. Pierce, OAR
4:00 PM
6A.1
On the ability to develop MOS guidance with short dependent samples from an evolving numerical model
Mark S. Antolik, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. N. Baker
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (227.6 kB)

4:15 PM
6A.2
GFS-Based MOS Opaque Sky Cover and Ceiling Height Guidance for the Contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico
Wei Yan, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and S. Zhao
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (472.6 kB)

4:30 PM
6A.3
The NMM MOS replacement for the Eta MOS
Joseph C. Maloney III, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and E. Engle, P. Shafer, and G. Wagner
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (911.7 kB)

4:45 PM
6A.4
Improvements to the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) statistical guidance for ceiling height and sky cover
Mitchell Weiss, WYLE Information Systems, Inc., McLean, VA; and J. E. Ghirardelli
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (144.4 kB)

5:00 PM
6A.5
The conditional risk of severe convection estimated from archived NWS/Storm Prediction Center mesoscale objective analyses: potential uses in support of forecast operations and verification
Andrew R. Dean, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. S. Schneider, R. L. Thompson, J. Hart, and P. D. Bothwell

Presentation PDF (900.8 kB)

5:15 PM
6A.6
Gridded Model Output Statistics: improving and expanding
Kathryn K. Gilbert, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and R. L. Cosgrove, K. L. Sheets, and G. A. Wagner

Presentation PDF (1.7 MB)


Session 6B
Tropical Weather Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Joseph A. Zehnder, Creighton University
CoChair: John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS
4:00 PM
6B.1
Tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities: Operational results and future applications
Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown, R. D. Knabb, M. DeMaria, A. B. Schumacher, and J. Knaff
Recorded presentation

4:15 PM
6B.2
Objective Evaluation for the High Resolution Hurricane Test Plan
Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet, B. G. Brown, S. Bao, C. W. Harrop, J. Wolff, and T. Jensen
Recorded presentation

4:30 PM
6B.3
Mesoscale adaptive observing and high-resolution tropical cyclone forecasts using COAMPS-TC during T-PARC/TCS08
James Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, C. M. Amerault, and H. Jin
Recorded presentation

4:45 PM
6B.4
Environmental Characteristics of Intensifying and Weakening Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific Basins
Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng and B. Fu
Recorded presentation

5:00 PM
6B.5
Understanding the thermodynamic evolution of the tropical cyclone warm core during the extratropical transition process
Clark Evans, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Hart
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.4 MB)

5:15 PM
6B.6
Linked extreme weather events: Severe cold and record-breaking rains in Mexico and disruptive wild fires in California in late October 2007
Lance Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and H. M. Archambault and J. M. Cordeira
Recorded presentation

6:00 PM-10:00 PM: Tuesday, 2 June 2009


Tuesday Night Baseball Game (See General Info for details) Tickets not included in registration.

Wednesday, 3 June 2009

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-9:00 AM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Session 7A
Microphysical Processes in Modeling
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
CoChair: James Doyle, NRL
8:00 AM
7A.1
Impact of ice and snow fall speed computations on the structure of mesoscale convective systems in spectral and bulk microphysical schemes
Eric A. Aligo, Iowa State University,SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and W. A. Gallus Jr.
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (565.2 kB)

8:15 AM
7A.2
Forecasting the solid-to-liquid ratio of precipitation a cloud-resolving model
Jason A. Milbrandt, Environment Canada, Dorval, QC, Canada
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (399.6 kB)

8:30 AM
7A.3
Impact study of new cloud and radiation treatments on extended weather forecasts with the US Navy's global atmospheric model
Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Hogan, Y. J. Kim, J. Ridout, and A. Zhao
Recorded presentation

8:45 AM
7A.4
An Example of the use of Synthetic 3.9 µm GOES-12 Imagery for Two-Moment Microphysical Evaluation
Louie Grasso, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. T. Lindsey
Recorded presentation


Session 7B
Severe Weather Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Renee Fair, NOAA/NWS
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
8:15 AM
7B.2
Composite Analysis of the Mesoscale Environments Associated with Significant Nocturnal Tornadoes in the Plains
Dennis E. Cavanaugh, NOAA/NWSFO, Fort Worth, TX; and J. M. Boustead, E. P. K. Lunde, and S. F. Blair
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (663.1 kB)

8:30 AM
7B.3
Composite analysis of environmental conditions favorable for significant tornadoes across eastern Kansas
Joshua M. Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and G. Phillips, W. Gargan, J. Leighton, and B. Mayes Boustead
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.7 MB)

8:45 AM
7B.4
Convection and Appalachian cold-air damming
Adam K. Baker, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. M. Lackmann
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (330.0 kB)

8:00 AM
7B.1
The climatology and organization of convection over the Northeast United States
John Murray, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and K. Lombardo
Recorded presentation

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Session 8A
Radar Data Assimilation
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
CoChair: Steven Rugg, Air Force Weather Agency
9:00 AM
8A.1
The Relative Importance of Assimilating Radial Velocity and Reflectivity Data
Jidong Gao, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. Ge and D. J. Stensrud
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.0 MB)

9:15 AM
8A.2
A multi-case assessment of the ensemble Kalman filter for assimilation of radar observations
Altug Aksoy, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Miami, FL; and D. Dowell and C. Snyder
Recorded presentation

9:30 AM
8A.3
Short-term explicit forecasting and nowcasting of convection systems with WRF using a hybrid radar data assimilation approach
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Yu, T. Warner, J. Sun, Q. Xiao, and J. Pace
Recorded presentation

9:45 AM
8A.4
Doppler Radar Data Assimilation and High Resolution Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting: IHOP Retrospective Studies
Qingnong Xiao, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Sun, E. Lim, and H. Wang


Session 8B
Forecasting Tools/Techniques Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jeffrey S. Tongue, NOAA/NWSFO
CoChair: Jeffrey D. Cetola, United States Air Force Weather Requirements
9:00 AM
8B.1
Cold-Air Damming Erosion: Physical Mechanisms and Numerical Prediction
Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
Recorded presentation

9:15 AM
8B.2
Detect cloud icing conditions using CloudSat datasets
Michael P. Kay, NOAA/ESRL/CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and C. Lu, P. Li, S. Madine, and J. Mahoney
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (959.0 kB)

9:30 AM
8B.3
Moving quasigeostrophic theory into the 21st century
Eric Thaler, NOAA/NWS, Boulder, CO; and P. Nutter

Presentation PDF (978.0 kB)

9:45 AM
8B.4
Evaluating temporal wind changes in mesoscale numerical forecasts using an object-based method
Daran L. Rife, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis and J. C. Knievel
Recorded presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Session 9A
Data Assimilation: Error covariances and hybrid methods
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah
CoChair: Steven Rugg, Air Force Weather Agency
10:30 AM
9A.1
Status report on Rapid Refresh development
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, M. Hu, J. M. Brown, D. Dévényi, S. G. Benjamin, W. R. Moninger, S. E. Peckham, G. A. Grell, K. J. Brundage, B. D. Jamison, C. W. Harrop, and J. B. Olson
Recorded presentation

10:45 AM
9A.2
Application of anisotropic recursive filters to the generation of planetary scale background covariances
Yoshiaki Sato, JMA visiting NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. J. Purser
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (630.7 kB)

11:00 AM
9A.3
Impacts of different background error covariance matrices on 4DVAR data assimilation
Lei Zhang, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. Qiu and Z. Pu
Recorded presentation

11:15 AM
9A.4
A hybrid ensemble Kalman filter approach to data assimilation in a two-dimensional shallow water model
Lili Lei, University of Colorado, CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; and D. R. Stauffer
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (201.1 kB)

11:30 AM
9A.5
A Hybrid Data Assimilation System (WRF-VAR and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) Based Retrospective Tests with Real Observations
Meral Demirtas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Barker, Y. Chen, J. Hacker, X. Y. Huang, C. Snyder, and X. Wang

Presentation PDF (435.2 kB)

11:45 AM
9A.6
A comparison of the hybrid and EnSRF analysis schemes in the presence of model errors due to unresolved scales
Xuguang Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. Hamill, J. Whitaker, and C. H. Bishop
Recorded presentation


Session 9B
Mesoscale Convective Systems/Convection
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: C. C. Buonanno, NOAA/NWS
Cochairs: John W. Cannon, NOAA/NWS; John P. Gagan, NOAA
10:30 AM
9B.1
Maintenance of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Great Lakes
Nicholas D. Metz, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and L. F. Bosart
Recorded presentation

10:45 AM
9B.2
MCS motion: The role of vertical momentum transport
Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. M. Lackmann
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (188.5 kB)

11:00 AM
9B.3
MCS Initiation and Development Influenced by the Land/Lake Thermodynamic Contrasts near the Great Lakes
Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
Recorded presentation

11:15 AM
9B.4
The role of the trailing stratiform region in convective momentum transport and mesoscale convective system motion
Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. M. Lackmann
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (642.8 kB)

11:30 AM
9B.5
Using the GOES sounder to nearcast severe convection
Robert M. Aune, NOAA/NESDIS, Madison, WI; and R. A. Petersen
Recorded presentation

11:45 AM
9B.6
Developing Georeferenced Representations of Tornado Tracks during the Spring 2008 Severe Weather Season
C. C. Buonanno, NOAA/NWS, North Little Rock, AR; and D. Koch
Recorded presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Lunch Break

WAF/NWP Committee Luncheon
Location: Dakota (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Session 10A
Land Surface and Boundary Layer Effects on Modeling
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: J. Marc Hidalgo, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Yi Jin, NRL
1:30 PM
10A.1
Convective initiation in a convection permitting simulation: Land surface, PBL, and dynamic forcing
James Correia Jr., PNNL, Richland, WA ; and L. R. Leung and R. W. Arritt
Recorded presentation

1:45 PM
10A.2
Idealized simulations of circulations forced by land surface heterogeneity
Brian P. Reen, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. P. Tyndall, G. S. Young, and D. R. Stauffer
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.4 MB)

2:00 PM
10A.3
Why do long term regional climate simulations have reduced atmospheric moisture and precipitation in the Great Plains?
James Correia Jr., PNNL, Richland, WA ; and L. R. Leung
Recorded presentation

2:15 PM
10A.4
An assessment of the North American Mesoscale model forecasts during valley cold pools in the western United States
H. Dawn Reeves, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud
Recorded presentation

2:30 PM
10A.5
Sensitivity of a moist PBL turbulence parameterization on the NCEP GFS forecast
Jongil Han, SRG at NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and H. L. Pan

2:45 PM
10A.6
Impact of a New Thermal Roughness Length Treatment on the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)
Helin Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Zheng, J. Meng, M. Ek, K. Mitchell, X. Zeng, and Z. Wang
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (290.0 kB)


Session 10B
Winter Weather Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
1:30 PM
10B.1
Using post-processed short-range ensemble products to enhance precipitation type forecasts: the 1 December 2007 Upper Midwest storm
Dan A. Baumgardt, NOAA/NWS, La Crosse, WI
Recorded presentation

1:45 PM
10B.2
Collision of a Pineapple Express with an arctic outbreak over complex terrains of British Columbia, Canada -- Forecast challenges and lessons learned
Ruping Mo, National Laboratory for Coastal and Mountain Meteorology, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and Q. Geng, M. Brugman, G. Pearce, J. Goosen, and B. Snyder
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (994.8 kB)

2:00 PM
10B.3
Modeling study of a winter extreme cold weather episode in the central Alaska basin using the NCAR WRF-RTFDDA system
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and W. Wu, G. Roux, T. Warner, S. Sawerdlin, J. Pace, and E. G. Astling
Recorded presentation

2:15 PM
10B.4
A Red Herring? In Search of the Cold Occluded Cyclone
Patrick S. Market, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and K. Crandall, M. H. M. Anip, and A. R. Lupo
Recorded presentation

2:30 PM
10B.5
A remarkable mesoscale snowband event over southern PA: A snow lover's dream and a forecaster's nightmare
John R. Scala, WGAL-TV, Lancaster, PA; and D. Beachler, M. Dangelo, and R. H. Grumm
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.0 MB)

2:45 PM
10B.6
The North Texas convective snow event of 6 March 2008
Nicholas L. Hampshire, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX; and T. M. Ryan
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.6 MB)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Joint Poster Session 3
Joint Poster Part III
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
JP3.1
Growth of spread in convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing ensembles
Adam J. Clark, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong

Handout (1.2 MB)

JP3.2
Predictability of convective rainfall events during different large-scale weather regimes in convection-allowing and convection-parameterizing simulations
Adam J. Clark, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong

JP3.3
Impact of dual-polorimetric radar data assimilation on short-term rainfall forecast of two convective systems
Xuanli Li, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski and L. Carey

JP3.4
Relating snowfall patterns over the central and eastern US to infrared imagery of extratropical cyclone comma heads
Darren Van Cleave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. F. Dostalek and T. H. Vonder Haar

Handout (2.8 MB)

JP3.5
A Predecessor Rain Event over the Upper Midwest Associated with Tropical Cyclone Rita (2005)
Benjamin J. Moore, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

JP3.6
Comparing CRTM simulated radiances with observations from AIRS and TRMM satellite sensors for tropical cyclone cases
Levi Thatcher, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

JP3.7
Experiences with an ensemble of real-time mesoscale WRF simulations across the Southeast United States
Clark Evans, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Handout (130.0 kB)

JP3.8
A synoptic climatology of significant winter storms in the Twin Cities area
Lisa Schmit, NOAA/NWS, Chanhassen, MN; and T. R. Hultquist

Handout (1.7 MB)

JP3.9
Improving forecasts of instrument flight rule conditions over the Upper Mississippi River Valley and beyond
Steven Thompson, NOAA/NWS, La Crosse, WI; and D. A. Baumgardt

Handout (256.3 kB)

JP3.10
Winter Weather Guidance from Regional Historical Analogs
Chad M. Gravelle, CIMSS - Univ. of Wisconsin / NWS Operations Proving Ground, Kansas City, MO; and C. E. Graves, J. P. Gagan, F. H. Glass, and M. S. Evans

Handout (3.0 MB)

JP3.11
Significant rime ice events in Utah's Wasatch Mountains: Impacts and conceptual models
Randy Graham, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and C. R. Neuman

JP3.12
Analysis of Forecast Performance for Hit, Miss, and False Alarm Thundersnow Events during ROCS
Katie Crandall, CIMMS, Kansas City, MO; and P. S. Market

Handout (2.9 MB)

JP3.13
Preferential Storm Pathways and Mountain Precipitation over the Intermountain West
Matthew E. Jeglum, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Steenburgh


Coffee Break with Poster Viewing - Sponsored by Raytheon
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 3 June 2009


Session 11A
Data Assimilation: Profiling and satellite data assimilation
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Steven Rugg, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Anthony R. Lupo, University of Missouri
4:00 PM
11A.1
Evaluation of different methods for assimilating 3-dimensional wind profiles in NWP model: A regional OSSE study
Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Zhang

4:15 PM
11A.2
Profiler assessment and ongoing profiler observation quality monitoring using the Rapid Update Cycle
Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Moninger, S. G. Benjamin, and S. Sahm
Recorded presentation

4:30 PM
11A.3
Data assimilation strategies in the planetary boundary layer
Brian P. Reen, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (425.0 kB)

4:45 PM
11A.4
Comprehensive Test-Rig for WRF data Assimilation Developments at NCAR Data Assimilation Testbed Center
Hui Shao, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and X. Y. Huang, Z. Liu, T. Auligne, M. Demirtas, S. Rizvi, and H. Lin
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (261.8 kB)

5:00 PM
11A.5
Bias correction in the ensemble-based data assimilation system for the NCEP GFS model
Xuguang Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Whitaker and T. Hamill
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (886.1 kB)

5:15 PM
11A.6
Improvement of land surface skin temperature in NCEP operational NWP models and its impact on satellite data assimilation
Weizhong Zheng, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and H. Wei, J. Meng, M. Ek, K. Mitchell, J. C. Derber, X. Zeng, and Z. Wang
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.3 MB)


Session 11B
Winter Weather Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Gary Lackmann, North Carolina State University
CoChair: R., Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
4:00 PM
11B.1
Influence of diabatic potential vorticity anomalies upon warm conveyor belt flow. Part I: 14-15 February 2003
Philip N. Schumacher, NOAA/NWS, Sioux Falls, SD; and J. M. Boustead and M. A. Baxter
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.0 MB)

4:15 PM
11B.2
Influence of diabatic potential vorticity anomalies upon warm conveyor belt flow. Part II: 3-5 January 2005
Joshua M. Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and P. N. Schumacher and M. A. Baxter
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.4 MB)

4:30 PM
11B.3
A high-resolution observational climatology and composite study of mesoscale band evolution within northeast United States cyclones
David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS/HPC, Camp Springs, MD; and B. A. Colle and A. R. Aiyyer
Recorded presentation

4:45 PM
11B.4
Secrets of the "Greatest Snow on Earth"
W. James Steenburgh, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and T. I. Alcott

5:00 PM
11B.5
Climatology and prediction of snow-to-liquid ratio in the central Wasatch Mountains
Trevor I. Alcott, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh
Recorded presentation

5:15 PM
11B.6
A scheme to produce high-resolution gridded snowfall estimates over the conterminous United States
Andy Cox, The Weather Channel, Atlanta, GA; and J. P. Koval and B. Rose
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.0 MB)

Thursday, 4 June 2009

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-9:00 AM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Session 12A
Modeling Results from Field Studies
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Gordon R. Brooks, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame
8:00 AM
12A.1
Lessons learned on short-term explicit prediction of storms through a joint IHOP_2002 retrospective study
Juanzhen Sun, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Davis, M. Weisman, and J. Wilson
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.0 MB)

8:15 AM
12A.2
Thermodynamic destabilization processes in ARW-WRF convection-permitting simulations during a 6-day IHOP_2002 retrospective period
Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis
Recorded presentation

8:30 AM
12A.3
A high-resolution modeling study of convective initiation on 19 June 2002 during IHOP
Qi-Wei Wang, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.7 MB)

8:45 AM
12A.4
Naval Research Laboratory global model adaptive observing during T-PARC/TCS-08
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. H. Langland
Recorded presentation


Session 12B
Forecasting Tools/Techniques Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA
CoChair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA
8:00 AM
12B.1
Integration of LEAD and WRF Portal technologies to enable advanced research, operations and education in mesoscale meteorology
Craig Mattocks, University of North Carolina, Morehead City, NC; and K. K. Droegemeier and R. B. Wilhelmson
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.6 MB)

8:15 AM
12B.2
Integration of a real time high resolution ensemble system into National Weather Service hydrometeorological operations
Jeffrey S. Tongue, NOAA/NWSFO, Upton, NY; and N. Furbush, A. Leptich, A. M. Cope, R. Kruzdlo, J. Ostrowski, B. A. Colle, and M. J. Erickson
Recorded presentation

8:30 AM
12B.3
An overview of the GOES-R Proving Ground: current forecaster interactions and future plans
Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. D. Miller, M. DeMaria, A. S. Bachmeier, J. Gerth, R. Schneider, J. Gurka, S. Goodman, and K. K. Fuell
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (730.9 kB)

8:45 AM
12B.4
The CIMSS/ASPB component of the GOES-R Proving Ground Program
Jordan Gerth, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. S. Bachmeier
Recorded presentation

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Session 13A
Modeling for Research and Operational Support
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Charles E. Skupniewicz, FNMOC
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
9:15 AM
13A.2
The WRF Developmental Testbed Center: Accomplishments and Outlook
Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. L. Gall, S. Koch, and L. R. Bernardet

9:30 AM
13A.3
An overview of operational FNMOC mesoscale cloud forecast support
Roger A. Stocker, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and J. E. Nachamkin
Recorded presentation

9:45 AM
13A.4
Overview of atmospheric global modeling and research at NRL
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Flatau, J. Hansen, E. Hendricks, T. Hogan, V. Khade, Y. J. Kim, R. Langland, M. Liu, J. McLay, M. Peng, J. Ridout, and T. Whitcomb
Recorded presentation

9:00 AM
13A.1
Investigation of NCEP GFS Model Forecast Skill "Dropout" Characteristics using the EBI Index
V. Krishna Kumar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD MD; and J. C. Alpert, D. L. Carlis, and B. A. Ballish
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.7 MB)


Session 13B
Tropical Weather Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Joseph A. Zehnder, Creighton University
CoChair: J. Marc Hidalgo, Air Force Weather Agency
9:00 AM
13B.1
A tropical cyclone analysis system for COAMPS-TC
Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Sashegyi

9:15 AM
13B.2
The distribution of helicity and intense convection in simulated tropical cyclones
Kathryn Shontz, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and K. L. Corbosiero
Recorded presentation

9:30 AM
13B.3
14 September 2008 Ohio Valley high wind event associated with the remnants of Hurricane Ike
Elizabeth M. Stoppkotte, NOAA/NWSFO, Louisville, KY; and A. Lese, S. Pavlow, and R. Baker
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (528.1 kB)

9:45 AM
13B.4
The Life-Cycle of Tropical Storm Erin (2007): Genesis, Postlandfall Reintensification, and Widespread Heavy Rain
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart and R. S. Schumacher
Recorded presentation

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Session 14A
Modeling, Data Assimilation and Applications
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Steven Rugg, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Michael D. McAtee, Aerospace Corporation
10:30 AM
14A.1
Dynamically Adaptive Numerical Weather Prediction: Models, observations and cyberinfrastructure responding to the atmosphere
Kelvin K. Droegemeier, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Wang
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.6 MB)

11:00 AM
14A.2
FNMOC Operational Aerosol Modeling and Derived Products
Charles E. Skupniewicz, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and T. Duffy, D. L. Westphal, and C. A. Curtis
Recorded presentation

11:15 AM
14A.3
Operational application of NAVDAS 3DVAR Analysis for COAMPS-OS
Keith D. Sashegyi, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Pauley, M. D. Frost, R. L. Pauley, and D. Geiszler
Recorded presentation

11:30 AM
14A.4
Applications of the COAMPS adjoint model
Clark M. Amerault, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle
Recorded presentation

11:45 AM
14A.5
A numerical investigation of Appalachian cold-air damming with a WRF-based four dimensional data assimilation system
Wanli Wu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, T. Warner, M. Padovani, G. Luft, and K. Fling
Recorded presentation


Session 14B
Tropical Weather Part III
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS
CoChair: Joseph A. Zehnder, Creighton University
10:30 AM
14B.1
Developing Hurricane Related Inland Flooding Forecasts at EMC
Yihua Wu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP and I.M. Systems Group, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Ek, K. Mitchell, V. Tallapragada, R. Tuleya, and Y. Xia
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (723.0 kB)

10:45 AM
14B.2
Impacts of Initial and Boundary Conditions on Hurricane Katrina Track Forecasts
Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, Y. Jin, M. S. Peng, R. M. Hodur, T. Campbell, and S. Gabersek

11:00 AM
14B.3
Forecast errors associated with Hurricane Rita (2005)
Eyad H. Atallah, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. McTaggart-Cowan and J. R. Gyakum
Recorded presentation

11:15 AM
14B.4
Predictability Associated with Interactions between Recurving West Pacific Tropical Cyclones and the Extratropical Large-Scale Flow
Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart
Recorded presentation

11:30 AM
14B.5
Examination of the tropical cyclone environment through comparison of COSMIC with other satellite data
Christopher M. Hill, Mississippi State Univ., Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. J. Fitzpatrick and Y. Lau
Recorded presentation

11:45 AM
14B.6
Understanding Sensitivity of Hurricane Intensity to Ice Nuclei Concentration Formulations
Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle, J. Schmidt, Q. Zhao, and S. Wang
Recorded presentation

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Session 15A
Data Assimilation: RTMA and Rapid Refresh
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Clinton M. Rowe, University of Nebraska
CoChair: Adam L. Houston, Univ. of Nebraska
1:30 PM
15A.1
Experiments with anisotropic background error correlations in the Rapid Refresh system
Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, M. Hu, and S. G. Benjamin
Recorded presentation

1:45 PM
15A.2
Recent improvements to the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)
Manuel Pondeca, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. S. Manikin
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (570.4 kB)

2:00 PM
15A.3
Wind Gust Speed Analysis in RTMA
Yanqiu Zhu, EMC/I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and G. DiMego, J. Derber, M. Pondeca, G. Manikin, R. Treadon, D. Parrish, and J. Purser
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.5 MB)

2:15 PM
15A.4
Sensitivity of surface temperature analyses to background and observation errors
Daniel Tyndall, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel
Recorded presentation

2:30 PM
15A.5
Adaptation and implementation of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) for Rapid Refresh
Ming Hu, GSD/ESRL/NOAA and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. Devenyi, S. S. Weygandt, and S. G. Benjamin
Recorded presentation

2:45 PM
15A.6
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): an hourly updated convection resolving model utilizing radar reflectivity assimilation from the RUC / RR
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and T. G. Smirnova, S. G. Benjamin, K. J. Brundage, S. R. Sahm, C. R. Alexander, and B. E. Schwartz
Recorded presentation


Session 15B
Statistical Techniques Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
1:30 PM
15B.1
Recent enhancements to the Model Evaluation Tools (METv2.0)
John Halley Gotway, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Bullock, S. Sullivan, and T. L. Fowler
Recorded presentation

1:45 PM
15B.2
Verification of mesoscale cloud forecasts utilizing composite and fuzzy techniques
Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Schmidt, C. Mitrescu, and R. A. Stocker
Recorded presentation

2:00 PM
15B.3
Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a proof of concept
Steven A. Amburn, NOAA/NWSFO, Tulsa, OK; and G. Wiley
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.6 MB)

2:15 PM
15B.4
Evaluation of Experimental Forecasts from the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, L. Nance, S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, and M. C. Coniglio
Recorded presentation

2:30 PM
15B.5
Operational 2-h thunderstorm guidance forecasts to 24 hours on a 20-km grid
Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (748.5 kB)

2:45 PM
15B.6
Monitoring observation-model differences in the real time Rapid Refrash System
Dezso Devenyi, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and W. R. Moninger, S. R. Sahm, M. Hu, S. G. Benjamin, and S. S. Weygandt
Recorded presentation

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Joint Poster Session 4
Joint Poster Part IV
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
JP4.1
Bridging the "middle ground" between medium range weather forecasting and climate prediction: verifying the accuracy of 14 day outlooks
Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Handout (2.4 MB)

JP4.2
The Navy's global atmospheric ensemble forecast system
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop, M. Flatau, D. Hodyss, S. Klotz, J. Ridout, J. McLay, C. Reynolds, M. Sestak, and P. Whitman

JP4.3
Use of High-Resolution Ensemble Analyses and Forecasts Products for Guidance in Predicting Microburst Events in a Mountain Desert Environment
Elford G. Astling, West Desert Test Center, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. Krippner

JP4.4
The Naval Research Laboratory Probabilistic Prediction Research Office
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA

JP4.5
Training on better operational use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models: Needs assessment survey results
Stephen D. Jascourt, UCAR/COMET, Silver Spring, MD; and W. R. Bua

Handout (742.6 kB)

JP4.6
a review of forecast techniques and practices for NWS probabilistic forecast products and services
Brian C. Motta, NWS, Boulder, CO; and R. H. Grumm, P. Schultz, and T. Hamill

JP4.7
Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast calibration over South America: Experiments with a short range regional ensemble
Juan J. Ruiz, Dept of Atmospheric Sciences (FCEyn-UBA) and CIMA (CONICET/UBA), Buenos Aires, Argentina; and A. C. Saulo and E. Kalnay

Handout (259.0 kB)

JP4.8
Development of a Sounding-Based Prediction Model for Phoenix, Arizona
Jaret W. Rogers, NOAA/NWSFO Phoenix, Phoenix, AZ

Handout (91.4 kB)

JP4.9
NOGAPS ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone genesis: Evaluation during T-PARC/TCS-08
Andrew Snyder, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu and C. A. Reynolds

JP4.10
Objective analysis of meteorologically significant events over the Central United States 1948-2008
Mark O'Malley, NOAA/NWS, Plesant Hill, MO; and B. Mayes Boustead, R. Grumm, J. M. Boustead, and S. Fortin

JP4.11 has been moved to JP3.13

JP4.12
Using gridded MOS techniques to derive snowfall climatologies
Michael N. Baker, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and K. L. Sheets and G. A. Wagner

Handout (766.2 kB)

JP4.13
Downscaling the NAM and providing precipitation probability forecasts using "smartinit" processing
Geoffrey S. Manikin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

Handout (227.6 kB)


Coffee Break with Poster Viewing
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Session 16A
Ensemble Forecasting Systems and Field Support
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL
4:00 PM
16A.1
E-4DWX: An Operational Mesoscale Ensemble Modeling System
Scott F. Halvorson, U.S. Army Dugway Proving Ground, Dugway, UT; and S. Krippner, J. Pace, Y. Liu, G. Roux, W. Wu, J. P. Hacker, T. M. Hopson, J. C. Knievel, T. T. Warner, and S. P. Swerdlin
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (356.9 kB)

4:15 PM
16A.2
CAPS REALTIME 4-KM MULTI-MODEL CONVECTION-ALLOWING ENSEMBLE AND 1-KM CONVECTION-RESOLVING FORECASTS FOR THE NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED 2009 SPRING EXPERIMENT
Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. Kong, K. Thomas, J. Gao, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (823.4 kB)

4:30 PM
16A.3
A real-time storm-scale ensemble forecast system: 2009 Spring Experiment
Fanyou Kong, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. A. Brewster, J. Gao, K. K. Droegemeier, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, D. R. Bright, M. C. Coniglio, and J. Du
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.9 MB)

4:45 PM
16A.4
An operational mesoscale ensemble data assimilation and prediction system: E-RTFDDA – system description and verification
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Hopson, G. Roux, J. Hacker, W. Wu, T. Warner, S. Swerdlin, S. F. Halvorson, and J. Pace
Recorded presentation

5:00 PM
16A.5
Using Ensemble Prediction Systems for Decision Support Activities
Richard Grumm, NOAA/NWSFO, State College, PA
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (189.7 kB)

5:15 PM
16A.6
NCEP global ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone genesis over the East Atlantic: Evaluation during AMMA
Andrew Snyder, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu and Y. Zhu
Recorded presentation

16A.7
Assessing the potential for a high impact wind event: the inland extratropical transition of Hurricane Ike on 14-15 September 2008


Session 16B
Statistical Techniques Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Jason E. Nachamkin, NRL
CoChair: Charles E. Skupniewicz, FNMOC
4:00 PM
16B.1
Verifying vectors
Randy Bullock, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Fowler

Presentation PDF (2.4 MB)

4:15 PM
16B.2
The spatial verification method intercomparison project
D. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gilleland, B. Brown, and E. Ebert

Presentation PDF (650.3 kB)

4:30 PM
16B.3
Utilizing standardized anomalies to assess synoptic scale weather events in the central United States
Barbara Mayes Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE; and M. O'Malley, S. Fortin, J. M. Boustead, and R. Grumm
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (427.1 kB)

4:45 PM
16B.4
NAEFS based bias correction and statistical down scaling
Bo Cui, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. Zhu, D. Hou, and Z. Toth
Recorded presentation

5:00 PM
16B.5
Verification of a daily thunderstorm probability forecast contest using the National Lightning Detection Network
Kristen L. Corbosiero, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and T. J. Galarneau Jr.
Recorded presentation

5:15 PM
16B.6
Ensemble-derived estimation of wind uncertainty using a linear variance calibration for probabilistic weather applications
Walter C. Kolczynski Jr., Penn State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer, S. E. Haupt, and A. Deng
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (388.7 kB)

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Thursday, 4 June 2009


Session
WAF/NWP Conference Picture Show and Contest
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Friday, 5 June 2009

Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | top

8:00 AM-9:00 AM: Friday, 5 June 2009


Session 17A
Ensemble Forecasting Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Peter Neilley, WSI, Corp
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
8:00 AM
17A.1
Mesoscale ensemble prediction for model improvement: atmospheric ducting example
James Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Holt, M. Sestak, and J. Doyle

8:15 AM
17A.2
Ensemble data assimilation to quantify land-atmosphere coupling-strength errors in numerical weather prediction model formulation
Joshua Hacker, NRL, CA; and W. M. Angevine and D. Rostkier-Edelstein
Recorded presentation

8:30 AM
17A.3
Probabilistic nowcasting of PBL profiles with surface observations and an ensemble filter
Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, Israel Institute for Biological Research, Ness-Ziona, Israel; and J. P. Hacker
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (157.7 kB)

8:45 AM
17A.4
On-line diagnosis and optimization of ensemble forecasts
Tomislava Vukicevic, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and I. Jankov and J. A. McGinley


Session 17B
Forecasting Tools/Techniques Part III
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri-Columbia
CoChair: Rick S. Chermok, NWSFO
8:00 AM
17B.1
Of weather prediction without models
M. Jeremie Lafitte (Levitas), WMN Predictions, Tverya, Galil, Israel; and G. Lafitte

8:15 AM
17B.2
Hi-res gridded MOS 6-h qpf guidance
Jerome P. Charba, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. G. Samplatsky
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.1 MB)

8:30 AM
17B.3
A versatile WRF and MM5-based weather analysis and forecasting system for supporting wind energy prediction
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Warner, W. Wu, G. Roux, W. Cheng, Y. Liu, F. Chen, L. Delle-Monache, W. Mahoney, and S. Swerdlin
Recorded presentation

8:45 AM
17B.4
A Portable Mesoscale Prediction System for MODIS Direct Broadcast Sites
Robert M. Aune, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR/ASPB, Madison, WI; and K. I. Strabala, S. S. Lindstrom, and A. Huang
Recorded presentation

9:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 5 June 2009


Session 18A
Modeling Part I
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: J. Marc Hidalgo, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
9:00 AM
18A.1
An examination of FIM performance for a variety of weather scenarios
Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, and M. Fiorino
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (2.9 MB)

9:15 AM
18A.2
Digital filter initialization of the National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) employing a regional-scale nonhydrostatic multi-scale model (NMMB) dynamical core
Edward Colón, SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and T. Black and B. Ferrier
Recorded presentation

9:30 AM
18A.3
Using a Calibrated Mesoscale Ensemble to Improve Precipitation and Hydrological Forecasts over the Northeast U.S
Michael J. Erickson, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle, J. S. Tongue, A. M. Cope, and J. T. Ostrowski
Recorded presentation

9:45 AM
18A.4
Implementation and testing of WRF Digital Filter Initialization (DFI) at NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory
Tatiana G. Smirnova, CIRES University of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Peckham, S. G. Benjamin, and J. M. Brown
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (842.2 kB)


Session 18B
Forecasting Tools/Techniques Part IV
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Patrick S. Market, University of Missouri-Columbia
CoChair: Gordon R. Brooks, Air Force Weather Agency
9:00 AM
18B.1
New training course on use of NWP in forecast operations
William R. Bua, UCAR, College Park, MD; and S. D. Jascourt
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (525.7 kB)

9:15 AM
18B.2
Mesoscale Modeling for Radar Propagation Prediction during the Wallops-2000 Experiment
Changgui Wang, Meteorological Office, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and P. Clark, T. Haack, and S. Millington
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (745.1 kB)

9:30 AM
18B.3
Dynamic Structure of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Nested Modeling and Observations
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Wang, P. Martin, J. Cummings, L. W. O'Neill, Q. Wang, L. Romero, and W. K. Melville

9:45 AM
18B.4
Sub-kilometer numerical predictions in the nocturnal stable boundary layer
David R. Stauffer, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and B. J. Gaudet, N. L. Seaman, J. C. Wyngaard, L. Mahrt, and S. Richardson
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (409.3 kB)

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 5 June 2009


Coffee Break
Location: Grand Ballroom Center (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 5 June 2009


Session 19A
Modeling Part II
Location: Grand Ballroom East (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: J. Marc Hidalgo, Air Force Weather Agency
CoChair: Evan Kuchera, Air Force Weather Agency
10:30 AM
19A.1
An adaptive time-step for increased model efficiency
Todd A. Hutchinson, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (272.6 kB)

10:45 AM
19A.2
The Application of an Evolutionary Algorithm to the Optimization of a Mesoscale Meteorological Model
David W. Werth, Savannah River National Laboratory, Aiken, SC; and L. O'Steen
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (738.1 kB)

11:00 AM
19A.3
On the use of support vector machines to evaluate the capability of the WRF to discriminate tornadic and nontornadic outbreaks
Chad M. Shafer, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK ; and L. M. Leslie, M. Richman, and C. A. Doswell III
Recorded presentation

11:15 AM
19A.4
The nonhydrostatic icosahedral model (NIM)
Jin Lee, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald
Recorded presentation

11:30 AM
19A.5
The Process of Thunderstorm Generation by Bores
Steven Koch, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO
Recorded presentation


Session 19B
Ensemble Forecasting Part III
Location: Grand Ballroom West (DoubleTree Hotel & EMC - Downtown, Omaha)
Host: 23rd Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/19th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: Edward Bensman, University of Notre Dame
CoChair: Daniel Nietfeld, NOAA
10:30 AM
19B.1
Application of object-oriented verification techniques to ensemble precipitation forecasts
William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (177.5 kB)

10:45 AM
19B.2
Probabilistic thunderstorm guidance from a time-lagged ensemble of High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecasts
Curtis R. Alexander, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Koch, S. S. Weygandt, T. G. Smirnova, S. G. Benjamin, and H. Yuan
Recorded presentation

11:00 AM
19B.3
Linear and nonlinear response to parameter variations in a mesoscale model
Joshua Hacker, NRL, CA; and C. Snyder
Recorded presentation

11:15 AM
19B.4
A comparison of precipitation forecast skill between small convection-allowing and large convection-parameterizing ensembles
Adam J. Clark, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., M. Xue, and F. Kong
Recorded presentation

Presentation PDF (1.1 MB)

11:30 AM
19B.5
An analysis of short range ensemble for cold season cyclones. Part I: An analysis of quantitative precipitation mean and probability forecasts
Kyle D. Weisser, NOAA/NWSFO, Sioux Falls, SD; and P. N. Schumacher and T. R. Hultquist
Recorded presentation

11:45 AM
19B.6
An analysis of short range ensemble forecasts for cold season extratropical cyclones. Part II: upper Midwest cases from the winter of 2008-09
Thomas R. Hultquist, NOAA/NWS, Chanhassen, MN; and P. N. Schumacher and K. D. Weisser
Recorded presentation

12:00 PM-12:05 PM: Friday, 5 June 2009


Conference Ends
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