An overview of operational FNMOC mesoscale cloud forecast support

In response to customer demand, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) began distributing explicit mesoscale cloud forecasts from the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS®)* in August 2008. The forecasts are produced twice daily over grids with spacing ranging from 15 to 27 km at lead times up to 72 hours for a variety of regions around the globe. The primary output products focus on cloud location and cloud depth as represented by the total condensed liquid water path (LWP). Recent verification studies have shown these forecasts display considerable accuracy in depicting the location of deep cloud systems over sparsely observed areas. This talk will provide an overview of the FNMOC cloud prediction effort as well as the results of an intensive verification study of a COAMPS® area over Eurasia. There, LWP forecasts are compared against MODIS satellite retrievals.