Overview of atmospheric global modeling and research at NRL

An overview of recent developments in NRL's atmospheric global modeling and research section will be presented. Topics briefly presented will include an update on the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) and NOGAPS development topics such as a) the impact of an advanced radiative transfer model and a comprehensive statistical cloud parameterization on cloud simulation and precipitation, b) continued development of the NOGAPS Emanuel scheme to reduce model climate drift, and c) improvement of the forecast skill of the middle atmosphere through the increased usage rate of satellite radiances together with model physics improvements. In addition, the performance of the NOGAPS forecast model in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation as a function of strength and phase will be discussed. Topics briefly covered on ensemble design will include results comparing random and cycling initial perturbation schemes, and the impact of inclusion of model and lower-boundary uncertainty. Results on observation impact and satellite and in-situ targeting, including results from T-PARC/TCS-08 and winter T-PARC, will be shown. Other areas of research that will be briefly mentioned include 1) interacting with users to identify methods to communicate forecast uncertainty, 2) accounting for model error in low-dimensional systems, and 3) the use of NOGAPS analyses to characterize environmental conditions during changes in tropical cyclone intensity.