Recent upgrade of NCEP short-range ensemble forecast (SREF) system

Ensemble prediction system is a central piece in the transition of numerical weather prediction from deterministic to probabilistic format. The NCEP SREF system was operationally implemented in 2001 and has become an integrated and critical part of the daily weather forecasting process in the National Weather Service. The system was recently upgraded and its performance was further improved. This talk will overview the detailed changes and show the evaluation results. Future plan will also be discussed.