a review of forecast techniques and practices for NWS probabilistic forecast products and services

The NWS Forecast Uncertainty Steering Team (NFUSE) was formed in 2007 to advise and coordinate NWS activities related to the development, implementation, and evolution of forecast uncertainty products, services, and information. The NRC report (2006), “Completing the Forecast Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Services: calls on the NWS to take a “leading role” in transitioning to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into hydrometeorological predictions.

The team has surveyed current NWS activities and new products and services aimed at better, quicker, and more valuable weather and water information to support improved decisions. Such activities include developing and infusing research results and new technologies more efficiently to improve products and services, streamline dissemination, and communicate vital information more effectively. In order to institutionalize the availability of necessary guidance and widespread use of uncertainty forecast techniques, NOAA is prototyping such capabilities in a new workstation for rapid prototyping with operational forecasters.