Assessing the potential for a high impact wind event: the inland extratropical transition of Hurricane Ike on 14-15 September 2008

Climatological anomalies from the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF), Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and deterministic models (NAM and GFS) are used to identify the high wind potential associated with the re intensification of tropical depression Ike as it moved through the Ohio Valley on 14-15 September 2008.

Tropical remnants are not normally associated with large scale wind potential in the Ohio Valley, but in this case extra tropical cyclogenesis created widespread damaging winds across parts of Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New York on 14-15 September 2008. The intensification of the tropical system into a “wind machine” caught many forecasters off guard in northern parts of the Ohio Valley, prompting a number of reactionary warning responses.

This study will illustrate a forecast strategy that can help forecasters identify the potential for high impact wind events associated with extratropical cyclogenesis. The strategy uses 1) a conceptual model of extratropical transition, 2) ensemble and deterministic model departures from climatology to increase situational awareness for damaging wind potential and, 3) higher resolution model output to estimate the wind magnitude.