Current and Future Numerical Weather Prediction in the U.S. Navy

The U. S. Navy operates a tightly integrated suite of global and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), and is preparing for the next-generation of these models for support of future missions. Most of the models are developed and supported by the Marine Meteorology Division of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), which is collocated with FNMOC in Monterey.

The current models suite at FNMOC consists of:

– NOGAPS – Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System; T239L30 global spectral model, at the center of FNMOC production.

– NAVDAS – Navy Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System; 3D-VAR data assimilation for NOGAPS and COAMPS.

– NAVDAS-AR – 4D-VAR data assimilation system undergoing operational testing.

– COAMPS – Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System; regional mesoscale model, multi-nested to ~6 km resolution within NOGAPS and relocatable in minutes.

– GFDN – Navy implementation of the GFDL TC model; only moveable-nest TC model operational in all ocean basins. Nested within NOGAPS.

– WW3 – WaveWatch III spectral ocean wave model; global and regional implementations, driven by NOGAPS and COAMPS.

– NCODA – Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation System; ocean thermal analysis system which provides sea-surface temperature and sea ice fields for NOGAPS and COAMPS.

– EFS – NOGAPS-based global 18-member Ensemble Forecast System, initialized by the Ensemble Transform (ET) technique; includes 18-member global WW3 ensemble.

– NAAPS – Navy Atmospheric Aerosol Prediction System; only operational global aerosol model. Driven by NOGAPS.

All of these models are run operationally on a 928 processor Linux cluster at FNMOC.

NRL and FNMOC are planning for significant upgrades to the Navy's NWP suite, including operational implementation of NAVDAS-AR, integration of ocean wave and ocean circulation models into COAMPS, implementation of a COAMPS-based mesoscale ensemble in support of the Navy/Air Force Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS), addition of stochastic convection physics to EFS, and integration of NAAPS into the global NWP model. In addition, a research and development effort is ongoing for the next generation global model that may have the attributes of semi-Lagrangian advection, non-hydrostatic dynamics, and adaptive grids. The Navy's operational global model will become a key contributor to the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC), which is a joint Navy/NOAA/Air Force initiative.