Experiences with an ensemble of real-time mesoscale WRF simulations across the Southeast United States

Since early 2008, a “poor man's” ensemble of mesoscale WRF-ARW simulations has been performed in real-time twice daily (0600 and 1800 UTC) at FSU. Both ensemble mean and individual member output have been made available on the web at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/ensemble/ at the completion of each ensemble run. Background behind the model formulation and case studies highlighting the usage of the ensemble in a real-time forecast setting will be presented. Careful focus will be given to the proper interpretation of the ensemble output, starting from the factors (e.g. model parameters) that lead to the differences in each ensemble's output and continuing into a discussion as to the physics and dynamics behind these differences and how they may be employed in an operational and/or research setting. Technical details behind establishing such a modeling system at any operational or research meteorological center will be available in conjunction with the case study information.