4A.3
How strong El Nino affect tropical storm activity in the western North Pacific
Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and J. C. L. Chan
An analysis of 35 years (1965-1999) of data reveals a number of new findings on the vital impacts of strong (but not moderate) El Nino and La Nina events on tropical storm (TS) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). · Although the total number of TS formed in the entire WNP does not vary significantly from year to year, during El Nino summer and fall, the frequency of TS formation increases remarkably in the southeast quadrant (0-17oN, 140-180oE) and decreases in the northwest quadrant (17-35oN, 120-140oE). · The July-September mean location of TS formation is 6o latitude lower, while that in October-December is 18o longitude eastward in the strong warm years compared to the strong cold years. · After the El Nino (La Nina), the early season (January-July) TS formation in the entire WNP is suppressed (enhanced). · In strong warm (cold) years, the mean TS life span is about 7 (4) days, and the mean number of days of TS occurrence is 159 (84) days. · During the fall of strong warm years, the number of TSs, which recurves northward across 35oN, is 2.5 times more than during strong cold years. This indicates that El Nino substantially enhances poleward transport of heat and impacts high latitudes through changing TS formation and tracks. The increase of the low-level shear vorticity associated with the El Nino-induced equatorial westerlies is responsible for the enhanced TS formation in the SE quadrant, while the upper-level convergence induced by the deepening of East Asian trough and strengthening of the WNP subtropical high, both resulting from El Nino forcing, suppresses TS generation over the NW quadrant. The WNP TS activities in July-December are noticeably predictable using preceding winter/spring NINO3.4 SST anomalies, while the TS formation in March-July is exceedingly predictable using preceding October-December NINO3.4 SST anomaly. The physical basis for the former is the phase-lock of ENSO evolution to the annual cycle, while for the latter it is the persistence of Philippine Sea wind anomalies that are excited by ENSO forcing but maintained by local atmosphere-ocean interaction
Session 4A, Seasonal to Interannual Prediction and Predictability IV (Parallel with Sessions 4B, 4C, & 4D)
Tuesday, 30 April 2002, 9:00 AM-10:30 AM
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