Extended Abstract (208K)4A.2
Recurvature and landfall of Atlantic hurricanes and their relationship to the North Atlantic Oscillation
Brian F. Owens, Willis Limited, London, FL, United Kingdom
Rising hurricane-related economic and insurance losses, particularly in the U.S., have focussed increasing attention during recent years on the seasonal hurricane forecast. Traditionally, seasonal forecasts have concentrated on frequency and severity but not on track. Landfall, which is directly the result of the track taken, is naturally a key determinant of damages and losses. In the North Atlantic basin, a year in which a high level of tropical cyclone activity is observed may have few, if any, landfalling hurricanes, e.g., 2000. Conversely, a single devastating landfall may occur in an otherwise relatively quiet year, e.g., 1992. The tendency of hurricanes to follow a recurving track in the North Atlantic may have a significant impact on the number of landfalls – the relationship between landfall and recurvature is examined using a newly-defined recurvature index. Additionally, the possibility that large-scale phenomena such as the NAO may be related to both landfall and recurvature is also examined, and the results discussed.
Session 4A, Seasonal to Interannual Prediction and Predictability IV (Parallel with Sessions 4B, 4C, & 4D)
Tuesday, 30 April 2002, 9:00 AM-10:30 AM
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