Extended Abstract (108K)4D.1
Track Forecasting of 2001 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Using a Kilo-Member Ensemble
Jonathan L. Vigh, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
The tracks of 2001 Atlantic tropical cyclones are forecast using ensemble methods. A nondivergent barotropic multigrid model (MBAR) is inititialized with operational MRF ensemble fields blended with a synthetic vortex. The vortex parameters are varied to simulate the error fields related to storm intensity, movement, and size. Statistics of the resulting kilo-member ensemble are analyzed to determine the relationship between ensemble variance and forecast error as well as forecast reliability. Probabilistic and possibilisitic interpretations are deduced from the ensemble. Methods of selecting more accurate subensembles are investigated.
Supplementary URL: http://lamar.colostate.edu/~jvigh/ensembles/
Session 4D, Tropical Cyclone Prediction II (Parallel with Sessions 4A, 4B, & 4C)
Tuesday, 30 April 2002, 8:30 AM-10:30 AM
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