2A.1
Seasonal prediction of Atlantic, US and Caribbean landfalling hurricanes
Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and P. Rockett
The TropicalStormRisk (TSR) consortium has developed innovative prediction models for Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity. These models correctly predicted that the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season would be above average from the previous November. We will describe the forecast models, their independent hindcast skill for 1987-2001 as a function of monthly lead out to 10 months, the key predictors, and our predictions for the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season.
Session 2A, Seasonal to Interannual Prediction and Predictability II (Parallel with Sessions 2B, 2C, & 2D)
Monday, 29 April 2002, 2:00 PM-3:30 PM
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