2A.2
Seasonal prediction of NW Pacific and Japan landfalling typhoons
Paul Rockett, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders
The TropicalStormRisk (TSR) consortium has developed innovative prediction models for NW Pacific seasonal typhoon activity. These models precisely predicted the 2000 NW Pacific typhoon activity and Japan typhoon strikes. We will describe the forecast models, their independent hindcast skill for 1987-2001 as a function of monthly lead out to 10 months, the key predictors, and our predictions for the 2002 NW Pacific typhoon season.
Session 2A, Seasonal to Interannual Prediction and Predictability II (Parallel with Sessions 2B, 2C, & 2D)
Monday, 29 April 2002, 2:00 PM-3:30 PM
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