Extended Abstract (68K)4D.6
Tropical cyclone track predictability limits
Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
Nonlinear systems analyses calculate the predictability time scale in which average erros increase by a factor of e. The time scale is calculated in the Atlantic, North Pacific and Australia basins. The basin values are compared to show the relative predictability in each basin. The calculated values are compared to previous studies of track forecast predictability and to other studies showing relative difficulty by basin. The values are also compared to current operational track forecast errors in these basins.
Session 4D, Tropical Cyclone Prediction II (Parallel with Sessions 4A, 4B, & 4C)
Tuesday, 30 April 2002, 8:30 AM-10:30 AM
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