Forecasting Supercell Storms: Application of Operational Tools and Cutting-Edge Numerical Model Guidance in VORTEX2

For seven weeks in the Spring of 2010 the authors prepared daily weather briefings and forecasts of supercell storms in support of the VORTEX2 Field Project. These forecasts, covering Day-1 and Day-2 and beyond, were prepared and presented to the project principal investigators each morning for daily strategic planning. In addition to the traditional observations, operational analyses and model guidance, output from several recently-developed storm-scale numerical models, model ensemble statistics and ensemble graphics were used in varying degrees by the forecasters to prepare the briefing materials and to suggest target areas for the VORTEX2 armada. This paper describes the various products used, both traditional and new, and presents some examples of where the products proved to be useful new tools as well as where they fell short and could be improved. Although 2010 was the last year of VORTEX2 field operations, it is hoped that the lessons learned from this experience will benefit other mobile field campaigns requiring short-term forecasts of convective weather as well as operational forecasters who are seeing increased real-time availability of these types of tools.