11C.6
A correlation between regional antecedent weather conditions and hurricane activity
PAPER WITHDRAWN
James B. Lushine, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL
Although seasonal prediction of total hurricane activity has become commonplace, and to some degree, skillful, the utility of such outlooks, especially on a regional scale, is limited. An apparent correlation was noted between total rainfall in the month of May along the southeast Florida coast and the subsequent occurrence or non-occurrence of hurricane-force winds in that region. The robustness of this correlation along with a possible physical explanation will be offered.
Session 11C, Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability IV: Seasonal Activity
Wednesday, 5 May 2004, 3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Napoleon II Room
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