Extended Abstract (644K)11C.7
Seasonal prediction of U.S. landfalling hurricane wind energy from 1 August
Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and A. S. Lea
Hurricanes are costly natural disasters causing damage in the United States of US $ 4.9 billion per year between 1950 and 1999. We show that seasonal US landfalling hurricane wind energy 1950-2002 is predictable from the 1 August start of the main Atlantic hurricane season with significant (p < 0.01) and useful skill. Predictability is linked to two large-scale patterns of lower tropospheric wind variability which act to ‘steer’ hurricanes thereby favouring or hindering US landfall. Hindcasts from this model are linked significantly (p = 0.01) to US hurricane economic and insured losses 1950-1999 and offer socio-economic benefit.
Session 11C, Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability IV: Seasonal Activity
Wednesday, 5 May 2004, 3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Napoleon II Room
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