11C.2
A new tool for the NOAA Atlantic basin seasonal forecast
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and G. Bell and R. J. Pasch
NOAA has been forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin since 1998 with some success. The two main forecast parameters utilized are the expected state of ENSO and the enhancing effect of the tropical Atlantic multi-decadal mode. However important year-to-year variability is still missing from the forecast process. This research studies late-spring/early-summer atmospheric and oceanic parameters not directly associated with ENSO or the multi-decadal mode. A new objective techinque will be discussed that integrates the new predictors into the current forecast methodology. .
Session 11C, Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability IV: Seasonal Activity
Wednesday, 5 May 2004, 3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Napoleon II Room
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