11C.4
Multidecadal-scale fluctuations in October tropical cyclone activity for the Atlantic basin
Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. B. Forde
Recent studies have demonstrated that in 1995, the Atlantic basin entered an era of increased tropical cyclone activity as the result of a multidecadal-scale shift in certain climatic factors. The increase has been evident in various measures of activity. One of the most striking of these is the increased amount of activity during the month of October -- especially major hurricanes. In the active decades prior to 1971, it was common to have major hurricanes in October. During the years 1971 though 1994, however, only two years had major hurricanes develop after the first few days of October. Since the upturn in activity that began in 1995, almost every year has experienced at least one major hurricane during the latter portion of the season. The climatology of this late season activity will be discussed along with the physical mechanisms responsible for the long-term changes in this activity. .
Session 11C, Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability IV: Seasonal Activity
Wednesday, 5 May 2004, 3:45 PM-5:15 PM, Napoleon II Room
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