Landfalling Tropical Cyclones, Resulting Floods, and Hydrological Budgets
Tammy Lyttek, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and B. Mackey and T. N. Krishnamurti
This study consists of four components: (i) The FSU multimodel superensemble forecasts and best track information are used to assess the skills of forecast track and intensity errors for two landfalling storms that resulted in floods, Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and Tropical Storm Allison of 2001. (ii) An FSU multimodel superensemble also provides estimates of rainfall and their distributions through Day 6 of forecasts. (iii) A downscaling algorithm is being used to project the model-predicted precipitation to a higher resolution over the target areas of possible floods. (iv) The downscaled information on precipitation and other meteorological variables is used to drive a hydrological-scale model to assess features such as streamflow, runoff, etc. The same list of exercises is also carried out with observed datasets to obtain an upper limit on hydrological budgets. This preliminary study is aimed to develop a framework for studies of flooding impacts from hurricanes.
Session 16C, tropical cyclone best track and climatology I
Friday, 7 May 2004, 8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Napoleon II Room
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