10C.2
Recent Progress in Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting with NCEP's Models. Part II.
Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, H. L. Pan, R. Tuleya, M. Bender, T. Marchok, and W. Shen
In Part II of this paper, we describe the plans for further improvements to NCEP's hurricane forecast suite. Included are upgrades to NCEP's Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), migration of the GFDL forecast system to a hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) modeling system. The HWRF will include a coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave-land surface system and, for the first time, a hurricane-specific analysis capability for airborne Doppler radar, dropsonde and high resolution satellite data for the hurricane initialization. While track forecast improvements will continue from improved physical parameterizations and greater capability for assimilation of satellite data, we will focus on improving biases in intensity forecasts and advancing precipitation forecast skill. .
Session 10C, Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability III: Operational Models
Wednesday, 5 May 2004, 10:15 AM-11:45 AM, Napoleon II Room
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