Wednesday, 5 May 2004: 4:45 PM
A correlation between regional antecedent weather conditions and hurricane activity
Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Although seasonal prediction of total hurricane activity has become commonplace, and to some degree, skillful, the utility of such outlooks, especially on a regional scale, is limited. An apparent correlation was noted between total rainfall in the month of May along the southeast Florida coast and the subsequent occurrence or non-occurrence of hurricane-force winds in that region. The robustness of this correlation along with a possible physical explanation will be offered.
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