26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session 999: Browse by Day

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Sunday, 2 May 2004

7:00 AM-7:00 AM: Sunday, 2 May 2004


Sun 2 May

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 2 May 2004


Conference Registration

Monday, 3 May 2004

7:00 AM-7:00 AM: Monday, 3 May 2004


Mon 3 May

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 3 May 2004


Conference Registration continues Through Friday May 7

8:30 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 3 May 2004


1A
CBLAST I
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Peter Black, NOAA/AOML

Papers:
  8:45 AM
Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling Experiments In Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel (2003)
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. E. Tenerelli, W. Zhao, and M. A. Donelan

  9:00 AM
3-D atmospheric boundary layer wind fields from hurricanes Fabian and Isabel
Daniel Esteban Fernandez, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA; and S. Frasier, J. Carswell, P. Chang, P. G. Black, and F. D. Marks Jr.

  9:15 AM
  9:30 AM
Testing global estimates of the tropical cyclone heat potential fields to improve hurricane intensification prediction
Gustavo J. Goni, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria, J. A. Trinanes, and P. G. Black

Poster PDF (163.1 kB)
  10:00 AM
Measurements of humidity fluxes in Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel with a modified
William M. Drennan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. A. McCormick and P. Black


1B
CONVECTION, waves, and precipitation I
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Walter A. Petersen, University of Alabama

Papers:
  8:30 AM
The generation of intense convection over West Africa during the summer monsoon season.
Dan C. Collins, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster

  8:45 AM
Mesoscale convective systems over sub-Saharan Africa and the tropical east Atlantic
Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and R. A. Houze Jr.

  9:15 AM
The Significance of African Easterly Waves on Convection
Ademe Mekonnen, North Carolina A & T State University, New York, NC

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ademe/AEW.html

Poster PDF (916.8 kB)
  9:30 AM
Case study of an intense African easterly wave
Gareth J. Berry, Monash University, Melbourne., Victoria, Australia

Poster PDF (330.1 kB)
  10:00 AM
Origin and propagation of a disturbance associated with an Africa Easterly wave as precursors of Hurricane Alberto (2000)
Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and K. E. Robertson and C. M. Hill

Poster PDF (342.2 kB)

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Monday, 3 May 2004


1C
Tropical Cyclogenesis I
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Mark Lander, University of Guam

Papers:
  8:30 AM
Tropical Cyclone formation mechanisms in the BMRC Tropical Cyclone Limited Area Prediction System (TC-LAPS)
Kevin J. Tory, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and M. T. Montgomery and N. E. Davidson

  8:45 AM
  9:00 AM
Predictability of tropical cyclogenesis in JMA ensemble prediction system
Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Kyouda and M. Yamaguchi

  9:13 AM
1C.4 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster Number P1.92

  9:14 AM
1C.5 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster Number P1.93

  9:15 AM
A mesoscale modeling study of the formation of an African disturbance preceding tropical cyclogenesis
Christopher M. Hill, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. L. Lin

Poster PDF (112.4 kB)
  9:30 AM

10:15 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 3 May 2004


Coffee Break

10:45 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 3 May 2004


2A
CBLAST II
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Nick Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

Papers:
  11:00 AM
Air-sea momentum flux at high winds
Tetsu Hara, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and S. E. Belcher, I. Ginis, and I. J. Moon

  11:15 AM
Surface gravity wave measurements in Hurricanes Fabian (2003) and Humberto (2001)
Edward J. Walsh, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and C. W. Wright, D. C. Vandemark, S. E. Feuer, P. Black, and F. D. Marks Jr.

  11:30 AM
Effect of ocean waves on air-sea momentum fluxes and hurricane intensity
Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. J. Moon, B. Thomas, and T. Hara

  11:45 AM
In-situ Measurements of the Air-Sea Interface During Hurricane Fabian
Eric J. Terrill, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla,, CA; and W. K. Melville

10:45 AM-12:15 PM: Monday, 3 May 2004


2B
Convection, waves, and precipitation II
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: George Kiladis, NOAA/AL

Papers:
  10:45 AM
Mean State and Wave Disturbances During Phases I, II, and III of GATE Based on ERA-40
Andreas H. Fink, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and D. G. Vincent, P. M. Reiner, and P. Speth

  11:00 AM
African dry-air outbreaks
Jeremy T. Pennington, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

  11:15 AM
Origins of African dry-air outbreaks
Phoebe Anne Woodworth, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

  11:30 AM
  11:45 AM
Analysis of the African Easterly Jet using aircraft observations from the JET2000 experiment
Douglas J. Parker, School of the Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom; and C. D. Thorncroft, R. R. Burton, and A. Diongue

  12:00 PM
Observations of African easterly waves and MCSs during the JET2000 campaign in August 2000
Chris Thorncroft, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. J. Parker, G. J. Berry, and R. R. Burton

10:45 AM-12:14 PM: Monday, 3 May 2004


2C
Tropical Cyclogenesis II
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Miles B. Lawrence, TPC

Papers:
  10:45 AM
The effects of vertical wind shear on the formation of Hurricane Gabrielle (2001)
Kate Musgrave, UCAR/SOARS and Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. A. Davis and M. T. Montgomery

Poster PDF (187.6 kB)
  11:00 AM
Relationships between tropical waves and cyclogenesis
William M. Frank, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and P. E. Roundy

  11:15 AM
Paradigms of tropical cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific
John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro, K. Lombardo, and C. Schreck

  11:30 AM
Characteristic Fields associated with Tropical Cyclone Formations
Kevin K. W. Cheung, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry

  11:44 AM
Paper 2C.5 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster Number P1.90

  11:45 AM
A New Product for Estimating the Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation
Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO; and C. W. Anderson, J. A. Knaff, and B. H. Connell

  12:00 PM
Analysis of Operational Model Forecast Trends in Extratropical Transition Storm Structure
Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. M. Arnott

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Monday, 3 May 2004


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:45 PM: Monday, 3 May 2004


3A
CBLAST III
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Breaking waves in hurricanes Isabel & Fabian
J.M. Kleiss, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and W. K. Melville, J. R. Lasswell, P. Matusov, and E. Terrill

  1:45 PM
Impacts of breaking waves and Langmuir circulations on the ocean mixed layer in high winds
Peter P. Sullivan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. C. McWilliams and W. K. Melville

Poster PDF (64.3 kB)
  2:00 PM
Sea spray droplet measurements in hurricanes Fabian and Isabel
C. W. Fairall, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hare and A. A. Grachev

  2:15 PM
  2:30 PM
Effects of sea spray in large-eddy simulation of the hurricane boundary layer
Mark Kelly, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. C. Wyngaard and W. Frank

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 3 May 2004


3B
Monsoon I
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Chris Thorncroft, SUNY

Papers:
  1:45 PM
Tropical-extratropical interactions causing precipitation in Northwest and West Africa: Part II: Dynamics
Peter Knippertz, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. H. Fink and J. E. Martin

 
3B.3
The simulation of the seasonal cycle of the West African monsoon in a AGCM

  2:15 PM
The intra-seasonal variability of convection in the West African monsoon
Flore Mounier, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France; and S. Janicot

  2:30 PM
The influence of the land surface on the dynamics of the West African Monsoon.
R J Ellis, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and D. J. Parker and C. M. Taylor

  2:45 PM
Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales
Alessandra Giannini, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction/Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and R. Saravanan and P. Chang

  3:00 PM
An Idealized Approach of the West African Monsoon
Philippe Peyrillé, CNRM, Météo-France, and CNRS, Toulouse, France; and C. Piriou, J. P. Lafore, and J. L. Redelsperger

http://

  3:15 PM
Experiments on Intraseasonal Prediction Using the NCEP Global Forecast System Coupled to the MOM3 Ocean Model
Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang, S. Saha, and H. L. Pan

1:30 PM-3:15 PM: Monday, 3 May 2004


3C
Tropical Cyclogenesis III
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Richard J. Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center, Miami, Florida

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Prediction of African easterly waves by The FSU Superensemble
Robert S. Ross, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti

  1:45 PM
  2:00 PM
The Madden-Julian Oscillation and tropical cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico
Anantha R. Aiyyer, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. E. Molinari

  2:15 PM
Surface evidence of tropical cyclogenesis
Mark A. Bourassa, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. Cunningham and P. D. Reasor

  2:30 PM
GCM simulation of the dynamics of a precursor to Hurricane Alberto over West Africa
Michelle Ann Felton, University of Leeds, UK, Leeds, United Kingdom; and D. J. Parker and C. M. Taylor

 
3C.6
Characteristics on the mesoscale convective systems organized in the process of typhoon formation over the western north Pacific

  3:00 PM
A statistical model for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis over the Atlantic Basin
Christopher C. Hennon, UCAR Visiting Scientist Program, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 3 May 2004


3D
Tropical cyclone observations and structure I
Location: Napoleon III Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Roger T. Edson, Anteon Corp., Univ. of Guam

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Toward a correction for precipitation scattering effects in satellite-based passive microwave tropical cyclone intensity estimation
Robert S. Wacker, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden and G. W. Petty

Poster PDF (43.8 kB)
  1:45 PM
The NRL tropical cyclone R&D web page upgrades
Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Lee, F. J. Turk, K. L. Richardson, C. R. Sampson, and J. E. Kent

  2:00 PM
Satellite-based center-fixing of tropical cyclones: new automated approaches
Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

  2:15 PM
Public release of a tropical cyclone microwave scatterometer and radiometer data archive
Deborah K. Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and M. Brewer and F. J. Wentz

 
3D.6
Characterization of hurricane structure using unsupervised classification of passive microwave observations and comparison with cloud resolving simulations

3:15 PM-3:15 PM: Monday, 3 May 2004


Coffee Break

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 3 May 2004


4A
Tropical Cyclones and Vertical Shear
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/TPC/NHC

Papers:
  3:45 PM
Tropical cyclones in complex vertical shears
Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM

Poster PDF (110.8 kB)
  4:15 PM
  4:30 PM
The mean structure of vertical velocities and radar reflectivities in the hurricane eyewall as they relate to environmental wind shear
Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks Jr., R. F. Rogers, L. K. Shay, B. A. Albrecht, and H. E. Willoughby

http://

Poster PDF (472.6 kB)
  5:15 PM
How Much Vertical Shear Can A Well-Developed Tropical Cyclone Resist?
Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. T. Montgomery and B. Wang

3:45 PM-5:15 PM: Monday, 3 May 2004


4B
Monsoon II
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Song Yang, George Mason University

Papers:
  3:45 PM
Radiation budget data sets for monsoon studies
G. Louis Smith, LaRC, Hampton, VA

Poster PDF (18.3 kB)
  4:00 PM
Recent PACS-SONET observations of relevance to North American Monsoon Experiment
Michael Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Murillo and J. F. Mejia

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/pacs

Poster PDF (711.2 kB)
  4:15 PM
Extratropical-tropical interaction during onset of the Australian monsoon
Noel E. Davidson, CAWCR, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and K. J. Tory and M. J. Reeder

  4:30 PM
Numerical investigation of the 2002 monsoon onset
Maria K. Flatau, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. May and J. Cummings

  4:45 PM
  5:00 PM

4C
tropical cyclogenesis IV
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Greg Holland, Aerosonde North America Inc

Papers:
 
4C.1
The potential vorticity structure of African easterly waves

  4:00 PM
The Effects of asymmetric Momentum on the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone
Yamei Xu, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and R. Wu

Poster PDF (47.3 kB)
  4:15 PM
  5:00 PM
A closer look at vortical hot towers in a tropical cyclogenesis environment
Andrea B. Saunders, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado


4D
tropical cyclone observations and structure II
Location: Napoleon III Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Edward Rappaport, NOAA/NHC

Papers:
  3:45 PM
Upgrades to the UW-CIMSS AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity estimation algorithm
Derrick C. Herndon, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, K. Brueske, R. Wacker, and B. Kabat

 
4D.3
The Double Eyewall and Cycloid-like Track in the Typhoon Dujuan (2003)

  4:45 PM
Multiple eyewall structure of Hurricane Juliette 2001
Brian D. McNoldy, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. D. Eastin, C. M. Rozoff, and W. H. Schubert

http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/juliette/269/

  5:00 PM
Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel (2003): A comparison of satellite, radar, and photographic observations
Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. P. Dunion, J. P. Kossin, W. H. Schubert, C. S. Velden, P. G. Black, R. Zehr, and S. D. Aberson

Poster PDF (423.0 kB)

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 3 May 2004


Ice Breaker Reception

Tuesday, 4 May 2004

7:00 AM-7:00 AM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


Tue 4 May

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


5A
Tropical cyclone Rainfall I
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Stacy R. Stewart, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC

Papers:
  8:15 AM
A Climatological Model for Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall in Taiwan
Cheng-shang Lee, National Taiwan University and National S&T Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan

  8:30 AM
Precipitation processes associated with the landfalling Typhoon Nari (2001)
Ming-Jen Yang, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan; and H. L. Huang

 
5A.4
An Introduction to the Short-Range Forecast System for Typhoon Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in Taiwan Area

  9:00 AM
The radar rainfall estimate for torrential rain during Typhoon Nair (2001)
Pay-Liam Lin, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan; and T. C. Wang, W. Y. Chang, and H. H. Lin

http://

  9:15 AM
The precipitation mechanisms of typhoon Nari(2001) revealed by radar observation
Tai-Chi Chen Wang, National Central Univ., Chung-Li, Taiwan; and P. L. Lin, W. Y. Chang, K. S. Chung, S. H. Lin, and J. H. Teng

http://

  9:30 AM

8:00 AM-9:30 AM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


5B
CONVECTION, waves, and precipitation III
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher S. Bretherton, University of Washington

Papers:
  8:00 AM
Variability of convective structure and lightning activity in tropical easterly waves
Walter A. Petersen, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Boccippio

  8:15 AM
Convective variability across the east Pacific: A comparison of precipitation structure in the TEPPS and EPIC domains
Robert Cifelli, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. Nesbitt, S. A. Rutledge, W. A. Petersen, and S. Yuter

  8:30 AM
The tropical vertical structure of clouds and precipitation as observed by radar
Paquita Zuidema, CIRES/NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. Lin and C. Fairall

  9:15 AM
Characteristics of oceanic tropical convection at Kwajalein
Jasmine Cetrone, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr.


5C
Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability I: Track
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: James M. Gross, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC

Papers:
  8:15 AM
Testing of a Revised Model Track Prediction Evaluation Expert System
Mark A. Boothe, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and D. P. Roberts

  8:30 AM
Tropical cyclone forecasting using climatology and NWP output
Bradford S. Barrett, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie

  8:45 AM
Statistical-Dynamical guidance for tropical storm track forecasting
Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and N. A. Samra

  8:59 AM
Paper 5C.5 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster Number P1.91

  9:00 AM
Tropical cyclone ensemble forecast product development and verification at the Met Office
Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and S. Robinson, C. Woolcock, and K. Mylne

  9:15 AM
Evaluation of a Kilo-Member Ensemble for Track Forecasting
Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ensembles/index.htm

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


5D
tropical cyclone observations and structure III
Location: Napoleon III Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Matthew D. Eastin, Colorado State University

Papers:
  8:00 AM
Thermodynamic structure of tropical cyclones from aircraft reconnaissance
Kay L. Shelton, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY

Poster PDF (38.3 kB)
 
5D.2
Observational case studies with the Aerosonde robotic aircraft

  8:45 AM
Automatic Doppler analysis of three-dimensional wind fields in hurricane eyewalls
John F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. S. Griffin, Jr., P. P. Dodge, and N. F. Griffin

  9:00 AM
Aircraft data from rapidly-moving Hurricane Juan south of Nova Scotia
Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada

http://www.novaweather.net/Hurricane_Juan.html

  9:15 AM
A record wind measurement in Hurricane Isabel: Direct evidence of an eyewall mesocyclone?
Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black, M. T. Montgomery, and M. Bell

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)
  9:30 AM
Development of a wind radii CLIPER model
Colin J. McAdie, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


Coffee Break

10:15 AM-11:45 AM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


6A
tropical cyclone rainfall II
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina

Papers:
  10:15 AM
Classification of tropical oceanic precipitation using high altitude aircraft microwave and electric field measurements
Robbie E. Hood, NOAA Unmanned Aircraft Systems Program, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Cecil, F. J. LaFontaine, R. Blakeslee, D. Mach, G. M. Heymsfield, and F. D. Marks Jr.

  10:30 AM
Intercomparison of polarimetric radar, profiler and disdrometer observations of tropical precipitation during CAMEX-4/KAMP
Justin T. Walters, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. Kim, K. R. Knupp, C. R. Williams, E. N. Anagnostou, and A. Tokay

 
6A.3
Precipitation performance of the WRF mesoscale Eulerian mass model during Tropical Storm Henri

  11:00 AM
Evaulation of rainfall forecasts from the operational GFDL hurricane model
Robert Tuleya, SAIC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Norfolk, VA; and M. DeMaria and R. J. Kuligowski

Poster PDF (25.5 kB)
 
6A.6
Understanding rainfall asymmetries in tropical cyclones


6B
Convection, waves, and precipitation IV
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: B. E. Mapes, CIRES

Papers:
  10:15 AM
Tropical convection and surface wind convergence using spacebased data
W. Timothy Liu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and X. Xie

http://

  10:30 AM
Small-scale variability of rainfall in the tropical and sub-tropical regions
A. K. Varma, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and G. Liu

  10:45 AM
Convective and Stratiform Rain Variations from TRMM Observations
Song Yang, George Mason University, greenbelt, MD; and K. -. S. Kuo and D. Sidla

  11:00 AM
Spectral retrieval of latent heating profiles from TRMM PR data: Comparison of look-up tables
Shoichi Shige, Japan Exploration Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and Y. N. Takayabu, W. K. Tao, D. E. Johnson, and C. L. Shie

  11:15 AM
Latent heating retrieval from TRMM observations using a simplified thermodynamic model
Mircea Grecu, University of Maryland, Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. S. Olson

  11:30 AM
Evaluation of satellite-based latent heating profile estimation methods
William S. Olson, JCET/University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and M. Grecu, S. Yang, and W. K. Tao

10:15 AM-11:30 AM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


6C
Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability II: Track and Intensity
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: James S. Goerss, NRL

Papers:
  10:15 AM
Dropsonde observations for typhoon surveillance near the Taiwan region (DOTSTAR): An overview
Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and P. H. Lin, T. C. Yeh, and S. D. Aberson

  10:29 AM
Paper 6C.2 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Paper Number P1.99

  10:30 AM
Targeting strategies to improve hurricane track forecasts
S. J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson, B. J. Etherton, L. D. Holland, Z. Toth, and C. H. Bishop

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~majumdar/tc/

  10:45 AM
Impact of high resolution water vapor measurements from airborne lidar on hurricane characterization and forecasting
Edward V. Browell, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and S. Ismail, R. A. Ferrare, R. Kamineni, T. N. Krishnamurti, and S. Pattnaik

  11:00 AM
Reducing large tropical cyclone forecast errors using high-resolution satellite and radar data
Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie, J. F. LeMarshall, and L. Qi

http://

  11:15 AM
Probabilistic prediction of tropical-cyclone position and intensity
Harry C. Weber, University of Munich, Munich, Germany

10:15 AM-11:45 AM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


6D
tropical cyclone observations and structure IV
Location: Napoleon III Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: J. F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Papers:
  10:15 AM
  10:30 AM
Observed vortex and thermodynamic structure of Hurricane Isabel at maximum intensity
Michael M. Bell, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins and NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, M. L. Black, and S. D. Aberson

  10:45 AM
Boundary Layer Wind Profiles in Hurricane Fabian
Mark P. Guishard, Penn State University, University Park, PA

  11:00 AM
Hurricane's evolution and latent heating profile structure
Corinne Burlaud, CETP, Velizy, France; and N. Viltard

http://

  11:15 AM
Atmospheric water vapor and tropical cyclone intensity changes
Derek Ortt, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX; and S. S. Chen

  11:30 AM
A Numerical Investigation of Slabular Convection and Moist Absolute Instability in Hurricane Isabel
Jeremy D. Ross, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and R. James, C. Hosler, J. M. Fritsch, and G. Bryan

11:45 AM-11:45 AM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


7A
30 years of the Dvorak technique: Part I
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher Velden, Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies

Papers:
  1:30 PM
  2:15 PM
The Dvorak technique through time
John L. Beven II, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL

  2:45 PM
Discussion

1:30 PM-3:15 PM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


7B
intraseasonal variability I
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Harry H. Hendon, BMRC

Papers:
  1:30 PM
  2:00 PM
  2:15 PM
The Study of Linear Relationship of Ganges-Brahmaputra River Discharge and Tropical SST
Jun Jian, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster

  2:30 PM
  2:45 PM
Origin of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation
B. Wang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and P. J. Webster and H. Teng

  3:00 PM
Theory for the formation of the summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation in the western Indian Ocean
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and B. Wang

3:15 PM-3:15 PM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


Coffee Break

3:45 PM-4:55 PM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


8A
30 years of the dvorak technique: Part II
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

Papers:
  3:45 PM
Globalisation, calibration and opportunities for future enhancement of the Dvorak technique
Bruce A. Harper, Systems Engineering Australia Pty Ltd, Brisbane, Australia

  4:00 PM
  4:15 PM
  4:30 PM
The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)—Continuing the Journey
Timothy Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

3:45 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 4 May 2004


8B
Intraseasonal variability II
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: David J. Raymond, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

Papers:
  4:00 PM
A comparison of the convective and heating structures in Kelvin waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA; and G. N. Kiladis and P. T. Haertel

  4:15 PM
A New Multi-Scale Model for the Tropical Intra-seasonal Oscillation
Andrew Majda, New York University, New York, NY; and J. Biello

 
8B.5
Suppressed phases in tropical intraseasonal variability: Modeling of preconditioning

Wednesday, 5 May 2004

7:00 AM-7:00 AM: Wednesday, 5 May 2004


WED 5 MAY

8:00 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 5 May 2004


9
Advances in hurricane forecasting and research during the past 50 years
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Papers:
  8:00 AM
9.1
A personal view of the progress in tropical meteorology over the last 50 years
William M. Gray, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Poster PDF (80.4 kB)
  8:15 AM
9.2
  8:30 AM
9.3
The P-3 Era of Airborne Hurricane Research
Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Maimi, FL

  8:45 AM
9.4
  9:00 AM
Discussion

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Wednesday, 5 May 2004


Coffee Break

10:15 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 May 2004


10A
Tropical Cyclones and Climate
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC

Papers:
  10:15 AM
Verification of the OCSI Atlantic Hurricane Predictions Since 1985
Jill F. Hasling, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX; and J. C. Freeman

http://www.wxresearch.com/outlook/verification/ocsiver.htm

Poster PDF (60.0 kB)
  10:30 AM
Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system
Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and D. S. Nolan

  10:45 AM
Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya

http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/manuscripts/hurr_cmip.pdf

  11:00 AM
Climate Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activities in Western North Pacific Ocean
Ming Xu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and M. Ying and Q. Yang

Poster PDF (28.7 kB)
  11:15 AM
Global Warming and Tropical Cyclone Intensity from an Observational Perspective
Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and K. S. Liu

  11:30 AM
Florida hurricane decline linked to surface warming
James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger

  11:45 AM
Cluster analysis of western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks
Suzana J. Camargo, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and A. W. Robertson, S. J. Gaffney, and P. Smyth

10:15 AM-11:30 AM: Wednesday, 5 May 2004


11B
interannual variablity II (Note new session start time from the original published program)
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State University

Papers:
  10:30 AM
A consolidated CLIPER model for improved August-September ENSO prediction skill
Benjamin Lloyd-Hughes, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders and P. Rockett

  10:45 AM
August–September ENSO prediction skill 1959–2001: a comparison between four state-of-the-art seasonal models
Adam S. Lea, Department of Space & Climate Physics, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders and B. Lloyd-Hughes

  11:00 AM
Interannual variability of tropical cyclone frequencies implied from an ensemble climate simulation with the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model
Junichi Tsutsui, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and H. Hatsushika and H. Kitabata

10:15 AM-11:45 AM: Wednesday, 5 May 2004


10C
Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability III: Operational Models
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NWS/TPC

Papers:
  10:15 AM
Recent Progress in Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting with NCEP's Models. Part I.
Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Surgi, Q. Liu, H. L. Pan, R. Tuleya, M. Bender, T. Marchok, I. Ginis, A. Falkovich, and W. Shen

  10:30 AM
Recent Progress in Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting with NCEP's Models. Part II.
Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, H. L. Pan, R. Tuleya, M. Bender, T. Marchok, and W. Shen

  10:45 AM
A Summary of Ugrades to the Operational GFDL Hurricane Model for 2003
Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Marchok, I. Ginis, B. Thomas, R. E. Tuleya, and H. L. Pan

  11:00 AM
  11:30 AM
An analysis of operational numerical weather forecasting errors for the landfall of Hurricane Juan (2003)
John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. J. McTaggart-Cowan


10D
tropical cyclone observations and structure V
Location: Napoleon III Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Paul R. Harasti, UCAR Visiting Scientist Program at NRL

Papers:
 
10D.1
Turbulence structure in Tropical Cyclones

 
10D.2
Tropical cyclone precursors: Structure and variability of African easterly waves

  10:45 AM
The formation of concentric vorticity structures in typhoons
H.-C. Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. -. P. Chang and R. T. Williams

  11:00 AM
The Dynamic Characteristics of Typhoon Vortex Spiral Wave and its Transportation: Diagnostic Analyses
Xiangde Xu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, P. R. China, China; and S. Zhang, L. Chen, and F. Wei

Poster PDF (128.9 kB)
  11:15 AM
The climatology of hurricane wind profiles
Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and M. E. Rahn

12:00 PM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 May 2004


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 May 2004


Poster Session 1
Posters
Location: Richelieu Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Papers:
 
What are the Dominant Mode and Cause of the Interannual Variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon?
Bin Wang, IPRC University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and X. Fu and T. Li

 
Verification of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from the TPC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB)
Daniel P. Brown, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and R. Molleda and R. J. Pasch

Poster PDF (43.0 kB)
 
Various applications on tropical convective systems using a cloud resolving model (CRM)
Chung-Lin Shie, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt and Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and W. K. Tao and J. Simpson

http://

Poster PDF (85.1 kB)
 
Validation and improvement of moist physical processes in a GCM
Jui-Lin F. Li, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. Takacs, A. Hou, and W. S. Olson

http://

Poster PDF (293.6 kB)
 
Tropical cyclones in the Australian region: modeling future climate
Lance M. Leslie, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. W. Buckley, M. Leplastrier, and M. S. Speer

 
Tropical cyclone multiple eyewall characteristics
Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Helveston

Poster PDF (31.0 kB)
 
Tropical cyclone analysis techniques from QuikSCAT NRCS, wind and ambiguity data and microwave imagery
Roger T. Edson, Anteon Corporation, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam

Poster PDF (719.2 kB)
 
Toward an objective satellite-based algorithm to provide real-time estimates of TC intensity using integrated multispectral (IR and MW) observations
Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin, T. L. Olander, D. Herndon, A. J. Wimmers, R. Wacker, K. F. Brueske, B. W. Kabat, J. D. Hawkins, R. T. Edson, and M. DeMaria

Poster PDF (221.0 kB)
 
Tornadic outbreaks associated with landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic basin
Stephanie M. Nordin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and H. E. Brooks

 
Three or four vortexes afectation to the Mexican Republic
Enrique Buendía, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, México, D. F., Mexico; and F. J. Villicaña and E. Azpra

 
The sensitivity of modeled hurricanes to the distribution of vertical sigma levels
F. Carroll Dougherty, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball

Poster PDF (442.1 kB)
 
The role of intraseasonal wave activity in the onset and active-break phases of the Indian monsoon
George N. Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Flatau and P. J. Flatau

Poster PDF (3.8 MB)
 
The maintenance of a MCC across Northern Africa: A case study and analysis relating to moisture variables and fluxes
Katie E. Robertson, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y. -. L. Lin

Poster PDF (247.9 kB)
 
The effects of COADS and other historical accounts of tropical cyclones on the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Re-analysis Project for the years 1935 to 1939
David A. Glenn, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS; and C. W. Landsea and J. C. Rodgers III

 
The diurnal cycle of the West African monsoon in observations and numerical model analyses
Doug J. Parker, University of Leeds, UK, Leeds, United Kingdom

 
The development of a new validation technique for tropical cyclone rainfall
Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks Jr., T. P. Marchok, and R. Tuleya

Poster PDF (252.0 kB)
 
The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT): Latest Upgrades and Future Directions
Timothy Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden and J. P. Kossin

Poster PDF (95.3 kB)
 
Subtropical jet disturbances as initiators of convection during BAMEX
Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. J. Galarneau Jr.

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)
 
Studies on secondary eyewall formation
Wesley D. Terwey, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Poster PDF (335.9 kB)
 
Strong Updraft Feature Associated with Hurricane Earl During Landfall
Barry C. Roberts, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp

Poster PDF (754.0 kB)
 
Statistical forecasting of Pacific and Indian Ocean tropical cyclone intensity using 19-, 37-, and 85- GHz brightness temperatures
Daniel J. Cecil, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and T. A. Jones, J. A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria

Poster PDF (76.9 kB)
 
Simulations of Hurricane Isabel (2003) in the WRF, GFDL, and ZETAC models
David S. Nolan, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and M. A. Bender, T. P. Marchok, S. T. Garner, and C. L. Kerr

Poster PDF (90.3 kB)
 
Severe Thunderstorms over northeastern Queensland on 19 January 2001
Seoleun Shin, Meteorological Institute, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith and J. Callaghan

Poster PDF (282.2 kB)
 
Seasonal to decadal variability of vertical shear over the tropical Atlantic
Anantha R. Aiyyer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft

Poster PDF (189.9 kB)
 
Seasonal Rainfall Variability within the West African Monsoon System
Robert F. Adler, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Gu

Poster PDF (30.0 kB)
 
Sea Surface Temperature, Cloud-Radiative Forcing, and Tropical Convection
Changhai Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff

 
Saharan Air Layer interaction with Hurricane Claudette (2003)
Gabriel S. Rothman, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. -. B. Chang and T. E. Gill

Poster PDF (428.2 kB)
 
Roof Damage Issues in Hurricanes
Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Carrolloton, TX

Poster PDF (1013.6 kB)
 
P1.32
Roll vortices in the hurricane boundary layer

 
Role of tropical cyclones in large-scale momentum, heat, and moisture budgets
Andrew S. Levine, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. P. Hamilton

Poster PDF (353.4 kB)
 
Research on cyclones : Météo-France La Réunion activities
S. Westrelin, Météo-France, La Réunion, France; and D. Barbary, M. Bessafi, F. Chane-Ming, R. Lee-Ah-Siem, and J. M. Willemet

Poster PDF (115.3 kB)
 
Re-examining tropical plumes and subtropical jet streaks
Peter Knippertz, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. R. Mecikalski

Poster PDF (100.0 kB)
 
Radiative energy budget of African Monsoons: NASA CERES observations versus NOAA NCEP Reanalysis 2 data
Takmeng Wong, NASA/LaRC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and T. D. Bess

Poster PDF (261.2 kB)
 
Numerical model validation of summer trade-wind conditions on Maui
Dana L. Carlis, NOAA and Howard University, Washington, DC; and Y. L. Chen and V. R. Morris

 
Nile Delta Storm :Tropical Cyclone Occurence Recurving Transition
Therese Schneck, Consulting Engineer, Puteaux La Defense, Paris, France

 
Modification of an airborne gust probe for hurricane boundary layer research
Jeffrey R. French, NOAA/ARL, Idaho Falls, ID; and R. Johnson, S. Beard, and T. Crawford

Poster PDF (119.9 kB)
 
Mid-Level Instrusion and Warm Core Structure in Hurricane Bonnie (1998) During Landfall
Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Halverson

 
Low Frequency Oscillations in Assimilated Global Datasets Using TRMM Rainfall Observations
Li Tao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and S. Yang, Z. Zhang, A. Hou, and W. S. Olson

Poster PDF (97.7 kB)
 
Large-scale meteorology and deep convection during TRMM KWAJEX
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY; and S. E. Yuter, C. S. Bretherton, and G. N. Kiladis

 
Kinematical characteristics of the tropical storm Juliette
Carlos López Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM

Poster PDF (81.9 kB)
 
ITCZ breakdown in three dimensional flows
Chia-chi Wang, University of California, Irvine, CA; and G. Magnusdottir

Poster PDF (2.3 MB)
 
Tropical cyclone intensity estimation by TRMM/TMI microwave radiometer data
Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and S. Hoshino

Poster PDF (169.6 kB)
 
Influence of vertical wind shear on the initial vortex formation of tropical cyclone
Masuo Nakano, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan; and K. Nakajima

Poster PDF (96.1 kB)
 
Inferring convective momentum fluxes within satellite data
John R. Mecikalski, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL

Poster PDF (190.2 kB)
 
Important role of air-sea coupling on the realistic simulation of intraseasonal oscillation
Xiouhua Fu, IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang

 
Eyewall boundary layer structure in Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel
Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, J. F. Gamache, W. D. Ramstrom, K. Emanuel, D. Esteban Fernandez, J. Carswell, and P. Chang

Poster PDF (621.3 kB)
 
Evaluation of the performance of an inland wind decay model during Hurricane Isabel (2003)
John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and J. P. Dunion and P. P. Dodge

 
Evaluation of a new high-resolution version of the GFDL/URI coupled hurricane model
Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and B. Thomas and M. A. Bender

 
Estimates of turbulent fluxes from high rate aircraft data during EPIC
S. Abarca, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and G. B. Raga and D. Baumgardner

Poster PDF (124.6 kB)
 
ENSO and NAO signals on the Isthmus of Tehuantepec winds
Rosario Romero-Centeno, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and J. Zavala-Hidalgo and G. B. Raga

Poster PDF (355.9 kB)
 
Effects of sea spray on the simulation of hurricanes using LES-based parameterizations
William M. Frank, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. C. Wyngaard, Y. C. Kwon, and M. Kelly

Poster PDF (26.8 kB)
 
Effect of meridional variations of moist static energy on mixed Rossby-gravity waves
G. Louis Smith, National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA; and J. Srinivasan

Poster PDF (136.1 kB)
 
Doppler-observed and model-simulated low-level wind surges in Hurricane Danny's (1997) eye wall
Keith G. Blackwell, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball and A. Montoya

Poster PDF (100.2 kB)
 
Development and Initial Deployment of an Omnidirectional Pressure-Sphere Anemometer for Observing Winds and Turbulence in Tropical Cyclones
Richard M. Eckman, NOAA/ARL, Idaho Falls, ID; and R. J. Dobosy, T. Strong, and D. L. Auble

Poster PDF (132.1 kB)
 
Damping and pumping of a vortex Rossby wave in a monotonic cyclone: critical layer stirring versus inertia-buoyancy wave emission
David A. Schecter, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery

Poster PDF (84.4 kB)
 
Critical wind speeds to upset two styles of ambulances and a large city bus
Thomas W. Schmidlin, Kent State University, Kent, OH; and B. Hammer, P. S. King, L. S. Miller, G. Thumann, and H. Wetherington

Poster PDF (20.1 kB)
 
Consistency check of drop size distribution in rain retrievals with a combination of TRMM Microwave Imager and Precipitation Radar observations
Shoichi Shige, Japan Exploration Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and S. Shimizu, N. Takahashi, T. Iguchi, T. Kozu, and K. Okamoto

Poster PDF (137.3 kB)
 
Comparison of GPS-sonde observations and surface data: An update
Samuel H. Houston, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and P. P. Dodge Jr.

Poster PDF (328.5 kB)
 
Climatology of heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclones affecting the central Appalachians
James Hudgins, NOAA/NWSFO, Blacksburg, VA; and S. Keighton, K. Kostura, and J. Jackson

Poster PDF (294.3 kB)
 
Building Damage Issues in Hurricanes
Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Carrolloton, TX

Poster PDF (404.7 kB)
 
An investigation of the extratropical transition of Hurricane  Erin (2001) using the global model of the German Weather service
Matthias Röbcke, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and S. C. Jones and D. Majewski

Poster PDF (338.3 kB)
 
Precipitation distribution associated with landfalling tropical cyclones
Eyad H. Atallah, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Poster PDF (346.4 kB)
 
Amazon Basin precipitation intensity in the Community Atmospheric Model
Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall

 
A systemic analysis of multiscale convective variability in the tropics
Wen-wen Tung, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff and J. Gao

Poster PDF (115.7 kB)
 
A numerical study of the effects of shallow convection on tropical-cyclone intensification
Nguyen Van Sang, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith

Poster PDF (55.9 kB)
 
A numerical case study of wet vs. dry regimes in the West African Sahel
Charles J. Alonge, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. I. Mohr and W. -. K. Tao

Poster PDF (115.8 kB)
 
A Method of Applying Quikscat Data for Tropical Cyclone Initialization
Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin

Poster PDF (99.6 kB)
 
A Decision Tree to Assess Forecast Track Confidence for Landfalling Gulf of Mexico Tropical Cyclones
Lance T. Wood, NOAA/NWSFO, Houston/Galveston, TX; and W. Read and G. Hafele

Poster PDF (25.9 kB)
 
A climatology of convective activity in the western end of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec
Keila Sosa, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and F. Oropeza, G. B. Raga, and G. Gomez

Poster PDF (205.5 kB)
 
A Climatological Study on the Landfalling Tropical Cyclones of Bangladesh
Tanveerul Islam, Florida A&M University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Peterson

Poster PDF (177.6 kB)
 
2001–2003 Real-time use of cyclone phase diagrams to improve structural diagnosis and forecasting
Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. L. Evans

Poster PDF (390.6 kB)
 
A simulation of hurricane Isidore (2002) using MM5
Diana Pozo, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and I. Borrajero and G. B. Raga

Poster PDF (163.4 kB)
 
High Resolution Observations of Boundary Layer Structures in Isabel at Landfall
Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO

 
Seasonal prediction of Accumulated Cyclone Energy in the North Atlantic (Formerly Paper Number 11C.3)
Adam S. Lea, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

Poster PDF (148.6 kB)
 
Usage of drifting buoys data to monitor Tropical Cyclones in the SouthWest Indian Ocean
Philippe Caroff, Météo-France, La Réuion, France; and A. C. Fontan

Poster PDF (363.7 kB)
 
The eyewall evolution and intensity change in a landfalling typhoon (Formerly Paper Number 12A.1)
Hsiu-Ju Cheng, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and Y. Wang

Poster PDF (329.2 kB)
 
The preliminary analysis of the dropsonde data from DOTSTAR and their impact on the typhoon track forecasts (Formerly Paper Number 6C.2)
Wei-Peng Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, P. H. Lin, S. D. Aberson, and K. C. Hsu

Poster PDF (865.5 kB)

3:45 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 May 2004


11A
Tropical cyclone impacts and vulnerability
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC

Papers:
  3:45 PM
Wind speeds in a parking garage during a hurricane and use of a parking garage as an evacuation refuge of last resort
Thomas W. Schmidlin, Kent State University, Kent, OH; and B. Hammer, P. S. King, L. S. Miller, G. Thumann, and H. Wetherington

  4:00 PM
  4:15 PM
The business benefit of seasonal US landfalling hurricane forecasts from 1 August
Niklaus Hilti, Helvetia Patria Group, St. Gallen, Switzerland; and M. A. Saunders and B. Lloyd-Hughes

  4:30 PM
A New Method for Determining Tropical Cyclone Wind Forecast Probabilities
James M. Gross, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, and C. R. Sampson

 
11A.5
Hurricane Isabel Wind Field Reconstruction and Insured Loss Estimation

  5:00 PM
Enhancing the efficacy of hurricane advisories
Bernhard Lee Lindner, College of Charleston, Charleston, SC; and C. Cockcroft and S. Brueske

Poster PDF (49.6 kB)
 
11A.7
A Numerical Study of Hurricane Erin (2001)

3:45 PM-5:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 May 2004


10B
Interannual variability I (Note new session start time from the original published program)
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Bin Wang, University of Hawaii

Papers:
  3:45 PM
Observed stochastic variability associated with ENSO
Harry H. Hendon, BMRC, Melbounre, Vic., Australia; and C. Batstone

  4:00 PM
Linear and Non-Linear Influence of the MJO on ENSO
Javier Zavala-Garay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang, A. M. Moore, and K. Sahami

  4:15 PM
  4:30 PM
Interannual Variability of Tropical Mean Precipitation In Relation To Sea Surface Temperature
Hui Su, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and J. D. Neelin

  4:45 PM
The "upped-ante mechanism" for tropical drought in global warming and El Niño
J. David Neelin, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and C. Chou and H. Su

3:45 PM-5:15 PM: Wednesday, 5 May 2004


11C
Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability IV: Seasonal Activity
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Richard J. Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center, Miami, Florida

Papers:
  3:45 PM
Updated 6–11 month prediction of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity
Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. M. Gray

  4:00 PM
A new tool for the NOAA Atlantic basin seasonal forecast
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and G. Bell and R. J. Pasch

  4:14 PM
Paper 11C.3 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster number P1.94

  4:30 PM
 
11C.6
A correlation between regional antecedent weather conditions and hurricane activity

  5:00 PM
Seasonal prediction of U.S. landfalling hurricane wind energy from 1 August
Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and A. S. Lea


11D
tropical cyclone observations and structure VI
Location: Napoleon III Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Hugh E. Willoughby, International Hurricane Research Center, Florida International University

Papers:
  3:45 PM
Small-scale inner core structures and wind streaks in a simulated hurricane
M.K. Yau, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and Y. Liu, D. L. Zhang, and Y. Chen

  4:00 PM
Rapid Filamentation Zones In Intense Tropical Cyclones
Christopher M. Rozoff, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert, B. D. McNoldy, and J. P. Kossin

Poster PDF (365.4 kB)
  4:15 PM
Observed evolution of upper-level vortex structure in vertically-sheared Hurricane Guillermo (1997)
Paul D. Reasor, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. D. Eastin, J. F. Gamache, and F. D. Marks Jr.

  4:30 PM
Observed evolution of eyewall convection and low-wavenumber flow in Hurricane Guillermo (1997)
Matthew D. Eastin, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. D. Reasor, J. F. Gamache, F. D. Marks Jr., and M. L. Black

Poster PDF (135.4 kB)
  4:45 PM
Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel (2003)
James P. Kossin, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. H. Schubert, C. S. Velden, M. L. Black, P. Black, R. M. Zehr, S. D. Aberson, and J. P. Dunion

Poster PDF (202.4 kB)
  5:00 PM
A possible mechanism of the formation of the concentric eyewalls: Gradient adjustment process
Jia-Yi Peng, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and B. J. D. Jou

Poster PDF (175.4 kB)

7:00 PM-7:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 May 2004


Banquet

Thursday, 6 May 2004

7:00 AM-7:00 AM: Thursday, 6 May 2004


THUR 6 MAY

8:00 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 6 May 2004


12A
Tropical cyclone intensity change I: Inner core processes
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Elizabeth A. Ritchie, University of New Mexico (UNM)

Papers:
  8:00 AM
Paper 12A.1 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Paper Number P1.98

  8:01 AM
  8:15 AM
On the hurricane intensity issue
T.N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and S. Pattnaik, L. Stefanova, T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, B. P. Mackey, and A. J. O'Shay

http://

  8:30 AM
Optimal Hurricanes: Motivation and Theory
Michael T. Montgomery, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and J. Persing

  8:45 AM
Optimal hurricanes: Three-dimensional modeling
John Persing, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. Nicholls and M. T. Montgomery

  9:00 AM
  9:15 AM
Dynamic instabilities of hurricane-like vortices in dry experiments
Young C. Kwon, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank


12B
Convection, waves, and precipitation V
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Mitchell W. Moncrieff, NCAR

Papers:
  8:00 AM
 
12B.2
Factors responsible for the vertical development of tropical oceanic cumulus convection

  8:29 AM
Paper 12B.3 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Paper Number P1.96

  8:30 AM
Convective self-aggregation in large cloud-resolving model simulations of radiative convective equilibrium
Christopher S. Bretherton, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and M. F. Khairoutdinov

  8:45 AM
A high-resolution simulation of a transition from shallow to deep cumulus convection
Zhiming Kuang, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton

  9:00 AM
Moisture-convection feedback in the tropics
Wojciech W. Grabowski, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (344.4 kB)

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 6 May 2004


12C
Tropical cyclone simulation I
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: S. D. Aberson, Hurricane Research Division, AOML

Papers:
  8:00 AM
Preliminary Investigation of Hurricane Lili Using the MM5 Model
C. H. Huang, Minerals Management Service, New Orleans, LA

  8:15 AM
  8:30 AM
Numerical Simulation of Hurricane Erin (2001): Model verification and storm evolution
Liguang Wu, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and S. A. Braun, J. Halverson, and G. M. Heymsfield

  8:45 AM
In what sense is the hurricane eye a 'containment vessel'?
Thomas A. Cram, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, J. Persing, and S. A. Braun

  9:15 AM
Accuracy of the linearized standard balance (BE) and asymmetric balance (AB) systems in a shallow water numerical model
Ingo Sölch, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and J. D. Möller and L. J. Shapiro

  9:30 AM
Modeling Tropical Cyclone Gridded Wind Field Forecasts
Ken R. Waters, NOAA/NWS, Honolulu, HI; and J. Cline

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hq/regsci/presentations/Miami-2004/

8:00 AM-9:30 AM: Thursday, 6 May 2004


12D
Tropical cyclones at landfall I
Location: Napoleon III Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Richard G. Henning, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron

Papers:
  8:00 AM
  8:15 AM
An Isotope Climatology of Hurricanes at Landfall
Stanley David Gedzelman, The City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. R. Lawrence

  8:30 AM
Interaction of binary cyclones in northeastern Pacific Ocean
Enrique Buendía, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, México City, Mexico; and O. Delgado, A. Meulenert, and C. Vázquez

  8:45 AM
A Tropical Cyclone Landfall Research Program (CLATEX) In China
Lianshou Chen, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and M. Zhou and X. Xu

Poster PDF (41.1 kB)
  9:00 AM
A summary of windspeed measurements as collected by Texas Tech during the landfall of Hurricane Isabel
Becca M. Paulsen, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder

http://

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 6 May 2004


Coffee Break

10:15 AM-11:45 AM: Thursday, 6 May 2004


13A
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change II: Environmental Factors
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: John Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY

Papers:
  10:15 AM
Large scale flow patterns and the rapid intensification of western north Pacific tropical cyclones
Justin D. Ventham, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang

Poster PDF (156.2 kB)
  10:30 AM
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in A Uniform Flow
Joey H. Y. Kwok, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

  10:45 AM
The Saharan Air Layer—Insights from the 2002 and 2003 Atlantic hurricane seasons
Jason P. Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD and Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. S. Velden, J. D. Hawkins, and J. R. Parrish

  11:00 AM
The tropical cyclone—jet interaction
Eric D. Rappin, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli and M. C. Morgan

  11:15 AM
Negative entropy flow and its effect on the organization of tropical cyclones
Chongjian Liu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and Y. Liu

Poster PDF (49.4 kB)
  11:30 AM
An ensemble approach to tropical cyclone intensity forecasting
Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. A. Hansen and K. A. Emanuel


13B
Convection, waves, and precipitation VI
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Wojciech W. Grabowski, NCAR

Papers:
  10:15 AM
  10:30 AM
Simulation of tropical precipitation using the Weak Temperature Gradient approximation to the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model
Cristina L. Perez, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel, G. Gu, D. Johnson, C. L. Shie, and W. K. Tao

Poster PDF (34.0 kB)
  10:45 AM
Effects of sea breeze and local winds on rainfall in south Florida
Ryan T. Ellis, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

http://

  11:00 AM
Discrete propagation and initiation of tropical oceanic convection
Robert G. Fovell, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and R. A. Houze Jr.

  11:15 AM
Impact of aerosol concentration on a tropical mesoscale convective system: Model study
Xiaowen Li, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and W. K. Tao, A. Khain, J. Simpson, and D. Johnson

  11:30 AM

13C
Tropical cyclone simulation II: Parameterization and numerics
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Papers:
  10:15 AM
Sensitivity of Hurricane Intensity Forecasts to Convective Momentum Transport Parameterization
Jongil Han, RSIS at EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and H. L. Pan

  10:30 AM
Offline GCSS intercomparison study of cloud—radiation interaction and surface fluxes
W.-K. Tao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and D. E. Johnson, S. Krueger, L. Donner, J. Petch, J. Gregory, F. Guichard, J. L. Redelsperger, C. Seman, X. Wu, K. -. M. Xu, and M. A. Zulauf

Poster PDF (7.2 kB)
  10:45 AM
MM5 simulations of sub-tropical storm Allison over southern Mississippi Valley
Kwan-yin Kong, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD; and S. D. Gedzelman

  11:15 AM
Evaluating microphysical parameterization schemes for use in hurricane environments
Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Black, S. S. Chen, and R. Black

  11:30 AM
A Modeling and Observational Study of the Impacts of Microphysical Processes on the Evolution of Hurricane Erin 2001
Greg M. McFarquhar, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and H. Zhang, G. M. Heymsfield, J. Dudhia, J. B. Halverson, R. E. Hood, and F. D. Marks Jr.


13D
Tropical cyclones at landfall II
Location: Napoleon III Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC

Papers:
  10:15 AM
Uncertainty in Hurricane Winds: What do new measurements and simulations tell us about Hurricane Andrew?
Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. D. Kepert, A. Boissonnade, and P. J. Vickery

Poster PDF (65.1 kB)
  10:30 AM
Tropical Cyclone Structure and Track Changes Prior to Landfall
Martin L. M. Wong, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

  10:45 AM
Transition in Onshore Hurricane Boundary Layer Winds during the Landfall of Hurricane Lili (2002)
J. Rob Howard, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and A. L. Doggett, R. E. Peterson, P. G. Black, J. L. Schroeder, D. A. Smith, and J. P. Dunyak

Poster PDF (414.1 kB)
  11:15 AM
The characteristic of the surface wind speed over Taiwan area during the invasion of tropical cyclones
Tien-Chiang Yeh, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. L. Shieh and S. -. C. Wu

  11:30 AM
Test of the new GFDL hurricane-land coupled system for landfalling tropical cyclones
Weixing Shen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Tuleya, K. Mitchell, N. Surgi, and S. Lord

http://

11:45 AM-11:45 AM: Thursday, 6 May 2004


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:15 PM: Thursday, 6 May 2004


14A
Tropical cyclone intensity change III: Statistical-Dynamical Models
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Richard D. Knabb, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC

Papers:
  1:30 PM
An introduction to the statistical typhoon intensity prediction scheme (STIPS)
John A. Knaff, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and C. R. Sampson

  1:45 PM
Near real time global optimum interpolated microwave SSTs: applications to hurricane intensity forecasting
Chelle Gentemann, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and M. DeMaria and F. J. Wentz

  2:30 PM
Rapid intensification predictors associated with major tropical cyclones
Kevin T. Law, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

  2:45 PM
Hurricane intensity forecasting with neural networks
Michael G. McGauley, University of Miami, Miami, FL

  3:00 PM
Upper air information and neural networks to estimate hurricane intensity
Nazario D. Ramirez-Beltran, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico; and A. Veneros

http://

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 6 May 2004


14B
Large-scale circulation I
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University

Papers:
 
14B.1
The Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Temperatures

  1:45 PM
The relationship between the MJO, oceanic Kelvin waves, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation
Paul E. Roundy, CIRES/Univ or Colorado and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis

  2:15 PM
Development and propagation of a pollution gradient in the marine boundary layer during INDOEX (1999)
Matthew Simpson, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Raman

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/simpson/

  2:45 PM
Quasi-biennial variability in the tropical South Atlantic simulated by an atmospheric GCM coupled to an ocean mixed layer
Sylwia Trzaska, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and A. W. Robertson and J. D. Farrara


14C
Tropical cyclone simulation III: Initialization and Assimilation
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Sharanya J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Use of radar data for TC initializaiton and predictions
Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/OAR/FSL, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, Y. -. H. Kuo, W. C. Lee, and W. Wang

  1:45 PM
Hurricane Initialization in High Resolution models
Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. Lord, N. Surgi, H. L. Pan, T. P. Marchok, R. Tuleya, and M. A. Bender

  2:00 PM
Typhoon Simulations with Assimilated GPS Occultation Refractivity
Ching-Yuang Huang, National Central University (Taiwan), Chung-Li, Taiwan; and Y. -. H. Kuo, S. H. Chen, and F. Vandenberghe

  2:15 PM
Data Assimilation by Field Alignment for Coherent Structures
Sai Ravela, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel and D. McLaughlin

 
14C.5
Data assimilation using a simple barotropic track model

  2:45 PM
Hurricane Model Initialization with AMSU Measurements
Tong Zhu, Colorado State Univ./CIRA at NOAA/NESDIS, Camp Springs, MD; and F. Weng

Poster PDF (904.1 kB)

14D
Tropical cyclones at landfall III
Location: Napoleon III Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Peter P. Dodge Jr., HRD/AOML/NOAA

Papers:
  1:30 PM
Onshore and offshore wind flow regimes at the landfall of Hurricane Isabel (2003)5
Peter P. Dodge, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. F. Gamache, E. W. Uhlhorn, D. Esteban Fernandez, J. Carswell, and P. Chang

  1:45 PM
Kinematics of rainbands in Hurricane Isabel during landfall
Michael I. Biggerstaff, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. M. Briede

  2:15 PM
Doppler profiler and radar observations of boundary layer variability during the landfall of TS Gabrielle
Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Walters and M. Biggerstaff

http://vortex.atmos.uah.edu/knupp

  2:30 PM
Mesoscale and precipitation processes observed by Doppler profiler and radar during the landfall of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. T. Walters and M. I. Biggerstaff

Poster PDF (1.9 MB)
  2:45 PM
Low-level Kinematic, Thermodynamic, and Reflectivity Fields of Hurricane Bonnie (1998) near Landfall
Rebecca Schneider, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and G. Barnes and P. Dodge

3:15 PM-3:15 PM: Thursday, 6 May 2004


Coffee Break

3:45 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 6 May 2004


15A
Tropical cyclone intensity change IV: Numerical Modeling Studies
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS

Papers:
  3:45 PM
A numerical study of rapid intensity change in hurricane Lili (2002)
Mélicie Desflots, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and S. S. Chen and J. E. Tenerelli

  4:00 PM
  4:30 PM
Influences of asymmetric heating on tropical cyclone evolution in a full-physics numerical model
J. Dominique Möller, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and L. J. Shapiro

  4:45 PM
Dynamical constraints on the maximum intensity of hurricanes
Roger K. Smith, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and H. Zhu, W. Ulrich, and C. M. Nguyen

3:45 PM-5:15 PM: Thursday, 6 May 2004


15B
Large-scale circulation II
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University

Papers:
  3:45 PM
An idealized Walker model coupled to an ocean mixed layer
Matthew E. Peters, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Poster PDF (193.4 kB)
  4:00 PM
Dynamics and Instabilities of the ITCZ
Violeta E. Toma, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster

  4:15 PM
The Eastern Pacific ITCZ during the Boreal Spring
Guojun Gu, NASA/GSFC and ESSIC, Univ. of Maryland, Greenbelt, MD; and R. F. Adler and A. H. Sobel

  4:30 PM
ITCZ breakdown: an observational study over the tropical East Pacific
Chia-chi Wang, University of California, Irvine, CA; and G. Magnusdottir

  4:45 PM
A moist model of the Hadley circulation with wind dependent surface fluxes
Samuel P. Burns, Columbia University, New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel and L. M. Polvani

Poster PDF (81.0 kB)
  5:00 PM
Hadley cell or no Hadley cell, that is the question
Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and M. G. McGauley and N. A. Bond


15C
Tropical Cyclone Simulation IV: Initialization and Assimilation
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Robert Tuleya, SAIC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Papers:
  4:00 PM
MM5 Simulations of Precipitation and Mesocyclone Dynamics Associated wih TC Gabrielle (2001) using High Resolution Data of East Central Florida
G. V. Rao, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and K. Santhanam, J. W. Scheck, S. M. Spratt, B. C. Hagemeyer, R. Edwards, J. Schaefer, J. L. Case, and E. Kemp

Poster PDF (204.0 kB)
  4:15 PM
Influence of initial vortex structure on the simulation of hurricane lifecycles
Joseph E. Tenerelli, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS/MPO, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

  4:30 PM
Experiments of a Typhoon Bogussing Scheme in the MM5 3D-Var Cycling System
Qingnong Xiao, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. H. Kuo, Y. Zhang, D. M. Barker, and D. J. Won

  4:45 PM
A Study on the Impact of Initial Fields on the Typhoon Track and Rainfall Simulation in the Vicinity of Taiwan
Der-Song Chen, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. F. Hsiao, K. -. N. Huang, and T. C. Yeh

  5:00 PM
Simulative improvement of Hurricane Andrew using the technique of irreversible thermodynamic operators
Ying Liu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and C. Liu

Poster PDF (65.1 kB)

15D
Tropical cyclones at landfall IV
Location: Napoleon III Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Peter J. Bowyer, MSC - Canadian Hurricane Centre

Papers:
  3:45 PM
Meteorological assessment for Super Typhoon Pongsona at landfall on Guam—December 8, 2002.
Mark Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam; and C. P. Guard and A. N. L. Chiu

  4:15 PM
The Impact of Vapor Transportation on the Sustaining of Tropical Cyclones over land
Ying Li, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, China; and L. Chen

http://

Poster PDF (14.9 kB)
  4:30 PM
Hurricane boundary layer rolls observed during the landfall of Hurricane Isabel
Sylvie Lorsolo, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder

Poster PDF (337.5 kB)
  4:45 PM
Extreme hurricane winds in the United States
Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

Poster PDF (61.8 kB)
  5:00 PM
Equivalent 10-meter wind speeds in Hurricane Fabian
Kyle Beatty, Risk Management Solutions, Inc., Newark, CA; and C. Miller and A. Boissonnade

Poster PDF (87.2 kB)

Friday, 7 May 2004

7:00 AM-7:00 AM: Friday, 7 May 2004


FRI 7 MAY

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Friday, 7 May 2004


16A
sea-air interaction: Hurricanes Isidore and Lili
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michelle Mainelli, NOAA/NWS/TPC

Papers:
  8:00 AM
Upper ocean response and feedback to 2002 Hurricanes Isidore and Lili in tandem
Wei Zhao, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen and J. Tenerelli

  8:15 AM
Surface fluxes and upper ocean budgets during 2002 Hurricanes Isidore and Lili
S. Daniel Jacob, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. K. Shay, G. R. Halliwell, C. J. Koblinsky, and M. D. Powell

  8:30 AM
Analysis of upper-ocean thermodynamic observations forced by Hurricane Lili
Eric W. Uhlhorn, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay

Poster PDF (67.8 kB)
  8:45 AM
Observed Modulation of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability by Upper Ocean Current Shears During Hurricanes Isidore and Lili
Lynn K. Shay, University of Miami - Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL; and T. Cook, R. Evans, E. W. Uhlhorn, S. Guhin, J. Cione, S. White, and M. L. Black

  9:00 AM
Observed Atmospheric Boundary Layer Structure During the Passages of Hurricanes Isidore and Lili.
Scott Guhin, University of Miami - Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL; and L. Shay, E. Uhlhorn, T. Cook, S. White, and M. L. Black

  9:15 AM
Modulations of Surface Wave Energy over Near-Inertial Time Scales
Sean R. White, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay

  9:30 AM
Atmospheric boundary layer and upper-ocean observations in Hurricane Lili (2002) south of Cuba
Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, L. K. Shay, T. Cook, and S. A. Guhin

8:00 AM-9:30 AM: Friday, 7 May 2004


16B
Convection, waves, and precipitation VII
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: David S. Nolan, University of Miami

Papers:
  8:00 AM
On the dynamics of two day equatorial disturbances
Patrick T. Haertel, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and G. N. Kiladis

  8:15 AM
Vortex alignment on the f and beta plane
Robert W. Jones, University of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby

Poster PDF (86.3 kB)
  8:30 AM
Evolution of Eyewall-like, Unstable Vorticity Rings
Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and J. Vigh and H. Wang

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/vorticity/

  8:45 AM
Microburst dynamics
Greg Holland, Aerosonde North America Inc, Boulder, CO; and P. T. May

  9:00 AM
Forcing of deep convection over tropical oceans
David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM

Poster PDF (48.2 kB)

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Friday, 7 May 2004


16C
tropical cyclone best track and climatology I
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Chris W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD

Papers:
  8:00 AM
Have there been any typhoons stronger than Super Typhoon Tip?
Karl Hoarau, Cergy-Pontoise University, Cergy-Pontoise, France; and G. Padgett and J. P. Hoarau

  8:30 AM
A season-long study of the tropical cyclone lifecycles in the Atlantic basin (2001)
Ron McTaggart-Cowan, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

  8:45 AM
Use of numerical weather prediction technology for simulations of historic tropical cyclones
Michael Dickinson, Accurate Environmental Forecasting Inc., Narragansett, RI; and G. D. Rowe, R. Richardson, I. Ginis, and L. Rothstein

 
16C.5
Climatology of United States tropical cyclone rainfall

  9:15 AM
Composite and Case Studies of Precipitation Distribution in U.S. Landfalling Tropical Cyclones
Alan F. Srock, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and J. E. Molinari

Poster PDF (136.0 kB)
 
16C.7
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones, Resulting Floods, and Hydrological Budgets


16D
Tropical cyclone extratropical transition I
Location: Napoleon III Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: John L Beven, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC

Papers:
  8:00 AM
Model based diagnosis of the genesis phase of Atlantic Hurricane Karen
Michael J. Fries Jr., University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. E. Martin

http://

  8:30 AM
Extratropical Transition and THORPEX
Sarah C. Jones, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and C. S. Velden, S. Aberson, J. Abraham, and P. A. Harr

  8:45 AM
Desktop hurricane-waves resonance modeling at the Canadian Hurricane Centre: output in less than 60 seconds
Peter J. Bowyer, MSC/Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and A. W. MacAfee

  9:00 AM
Application of spatio-temporal pattern recognition techniques to predicting extratropical transition in tropical cyclones
Oguz Demirci, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM; and E. A. Ritchie and J. S. Tyo

Poster PDF (164.0 kB)
  9:30 AM
The role of waves, sea spray and the upper ocean in midlatitude Storm Development
Will Perrie, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and W. Zhang, X. Ren, Z. Long, E. L. Andreas, J. R. Gyakum, and R. McTaggart-Cowan

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Friday, 7 May 2004


Coffee Break

10:15 AM-11:45 AM: Friday, 7 May 2004


17A
Tropical cyclone air-sea interaction
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Robbie Berg, NOAA/Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center

Papers:
  10:30 AM
The Intensification of Supertyphoon Maemi (2003) with a Warm Ocean Eddy
I-I Lin, National Center for Ocean Research, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu, K. A. Emanuel, W. T. Liu, and I. H. Lee

  10:45 AM
The impact of SST cold wake induced by Typhoon Rusa (2002) on the intensity evolution of Typhoon Sinlaku (2002)
Treng-Shi Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and I. I. Lin

 
17A.4
Mesoscale Model Investigation of Air-sea Interactions and Associated Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Gulf of Mexico

 
17A.5
Forecast performance of a coastal wave model during Hurricane Isabel

  11:30 AM
A new ocean data assimilation and initialization procedure for the coupled GFDL/URI hurricane prediction system.
Aleksandr Falkovich, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and I. Ginis and S. Lord

Poster PDF (136.8 kB)

10:15 AM-11:00 AM: Friday, 7 May 2004


17B
Tropical Cyclone Motion
Location: Napoleon I Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong

Papers:
  10:15 AM
The Effects of the Full Coriolis Force on the Structure and Motion of a Tropical Cyclone Part I: Effects Due To Vertical Motion
Xudong Liang, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and J. C. L. Chan and Y. Duan

http://

  10:29 AM
Paper 17B.2 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Paper Number P1.97

  10:30 AM
  10:45 AM
A dynamic model for barotropic vortex motion over topography on a ß Plane
Hung-Cheng Chen, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Chu and C. C. Chang

Poster PDF (186.9 kB)

10:15 AM-12:00 PM: Friday, 7 May 2004


17C
Tropical cyclone best track and climatology II
Location: Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Colin J. McAdie, NOAA/NWS

Papers:
  10:15 AM
The Atlantic basin hurricane database re-analysis for the decades of the 1910s, 1920s and 1930s
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Gamache, S. E. Feuer, J. Berkeley, W. Bredemeyer, and L. Woolcock

  10:30 AM
The reanalysis of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from the 1920's: A reexamination of three catastrophic hurricanes that impacted Florida
Steven E. Feuer, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. W. Landsea, L. Woolcock, and J. Berkeley

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html

  10:45 AM
An Analysis of Hurricane Landfall Patterns in the South Atlantic Bight, 1851-2000
Al Sandrik, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and P. Welsh, J. Hess, and P. Camp

  11:00 AM
Reconstructing South Carolina tropical cyclones back to the mid eighteenth century
Cary J. Mock, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC; and D. O. Mayes, J. Mojzisek, M. McWaters, and M. Chenoweth

Poster PDF (196.7 kB)
  11:15 AM
Hurricanes from Spanish documentary sources: an update
Ricardo García-Herrera, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; and L. Gimeno, P. Ribera, and E. Hernandez

  11:30 AM
Japanese long-term reanalysis project (JRA-25): Impacts of wind retrieval tropical cyclone derived from best track data
Hiroaki Hatsushika, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Chiba, Japan; and J. Tsutsui

Poster PDF (253.0 kB)

10:15 AM-11:30 AM: Friday, 7 May 2004


17D
tropical cyclone extratropical transition II
Location: Napoleon III Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jenni L Evans, Penn State University

Papers:
  10:15 AM
The impact of extra tropical transition on hurricane risk in the Northeast US
Robert Muir-Wood, Risk Management Solutions Ltd., London, United Kingdom; and R. Dixon and A. Boissonnade

  10:30 AM
The extratropical transitions of eastern Pacific Hurricane Lester (1992) and Atlantic Hurricane Andrew (1992): A comparison.
Michael Dickinson, Univ. at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, K. L. Corbosiero, S. Hopsch, K. Lombardo, M. J. Novak, B. Smith, and A. C. Wasula

Poster PDF (3.6 MB)

12:00 PM-12:15 PM: Friday, 7 May 2004


999
Concluding remarks
Location: Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Sponsor: 26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NWS/TPC