D.-S. Chen, L.-F. Hsiao*, K.-N. Huang, and T.-C. Yeh Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan Environmental Change Research Center, Academia Sinica , Taiwan*
Taiwan was affected by several typhoons each year that caused significant economic losses. Timely forecast of the typhoon movement and rainfall is one of the most important tasks at the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan (CWB). To provide guidance for the forecasts, numerical prediction models were developed and installed in the Bureau. And, to improve the performance of the numerical models is one of the key elements to advance the typhoon forecast of the Central Weather Bureau. As many of the studies showed the advantage of reducing forecast errors by using ensemble approach, similar idea were applied in the operational environment of the Central Weather Bureau. In this study different simulations were conducted to examine the possible application of typhoon track and rainfall forecast through ensemble approach. The impacts of the initial fields on the track and rainfall simulation were also analyzed and will be presented in the conference. The simulations conducted include the use of CWB's typhoon track forecasting model, CWB's nonhydrostatic forecast model, and the MM5 with different initial fields. The initial fields used including CWB's global model and the NCEP's global model obtained through FTP. The difference of with and without typhoon bogussing were also examined.
Corresponding author address: D.-S. Chen song@rdc.cwb.gov.tw
Central Weather Bureau 64 Kung Yuan Road, Taipei, Taiwan.
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