26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Wednesday, 5 May 2004
Verification of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from the TPC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB)
Richelieu Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Daniel P. Brown, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and R. Molleda and R. J. Pasch
Poster PDF (43.0 kB)
In collaboration with the duty National Hurricane Center hurricane specialist, the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) began formally issuing graphical and textual tropical cyclone formation forecasts during the 2001 hurricane season. These forecasts are intended to provide additional lead time to mariners in order to help them avoid the hazards posed by tropical cyclones. Beginning in 2002, these forecasts were included on the TAFB's "Tropical Cyclone Danger Graphic" and are depicted as areas of "possible" development.

This study will describe the methodology behind the forecasts and how they are produced. However, the main focus will be on the verification of the "possible" tropical cyclone forecasts from the "Tropical Cyclone Danger Graphic". The results will include the 2002 and 2003 hurricane seasons. The forecasts were verified based on the development of a tropical cyclone (i.e. tropical depression or greater intensity) within 36 hours of the forecast. Both event and individual forecasts were verified. For the events forecasts, the probability of detection, the false alarm rate, and the average lead time were computed. For each individual forecast, the percentage of correct forecasts was determined.

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