Wednesday, 5 May 2004
Beyond hurricanes: Marine analysis and forecasting at the Tropical Prediction Center
Richelieu Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
The most widely known function of the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC)/National Hurricane Center (NHC) is to issue forecasts and warnings for tropical cyclones (TC). However, the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) within TPC has additional year-round responsibilities to issue marine and tropical analyses, forecasts, and warnings. The TAFB forecast area of responsibility covers approximately 13.7 million square nautical miles of the subtropical and tropical North Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The 104 products issued daily by the TAFB include a suite of text and graphical forecasts, subtropical and tropical surface analyses, weather discussions, and satellite-based rainfall estimates. The TAFB also provides critical operational forecast support during the hurricane season including satellite-derived TC position and intensity estimates, radar fixes, TC forecast support, and media support. Additionally, the unit is actively involved in National Weather Service marine outreach, and many of the forecasters participate in applied research and development. The 2004 conference is an important opportunity for interaction between TAFB forecasters and members of the tropical meteorology community. This paper describes the operations of the TAFB and the suite of marine forecast products in an attempt to facilitate future interactions between research and operations.
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