26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Tuesday, 4 May 2004: 11:00 AM
A comparison of GFDL, GFS and Eta model rainfall forecasts for U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones for 1998–2003
Le Jardin Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. Tuleya and R. Rogers
This paper will present a verification of model rainfall forecasts for U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones during the period 1998-2003 from the GFDL, NCEP/GFS and NCEP/Eta models. Results will be presented for approximately 28 storms that made landfall during that period. Results will be compared and contrasted for all 3 models and will be compared to forecasts from the benchmark statistical / climatological rainfall model (R-CLIPER) for all of the same cases. Validation will be performed using rain gauge estimates as well as gridded rainfall analyses from the National Precipitation Validation Unit datasets.

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