26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Wednesday, 5 May 2004
Evaluation of a new high-resolution version of the GFDL/URI coupled hurricane model
Richelieu Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and B. Thomas and M. A. Bender
One of the limitations of the GFDL hurricane model has been its relatively coarse horizontal resolution in the hurricane core region most likely contributing to the modelís limited hurricane intensity forecast skill. Rapid increase in computer speed has made it possible to begin developing a strategy for the next generation of coupled air-sea tropical cyclone prediction models as a route toward skillful prediction of tropical cyclone intensity. A new fully coupled, three-nest high-resolution version of the GFDL/URI model will be presented. In the new model the highest resolution in the movable innermost mesh is 1/12 degree. Although forecasts using this high-resolution model are now only feasible in research mode, they could be operationally feasible in 2005 with the planned computer upgrade at NCEP in the fall of 2004. The results of systematic evaluation of the new model based on real case simulations of tropical cyclone in recent hurricane seasons will be presented. Detailed comparisons of the wind and storm structure will be made between the high-resolution model and the current operational version.

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