26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Wednesday, 5 May 2004
Statistical forecasting of Pacific and Indian Ocean tropical cyclone intensity using 19-, 37-, and 85- GHz brightness temperatures
Richelieu Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
Daniel J. Cecil, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and T. A. Jones, J. A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria
Poster PDF (76.9 kB)
Statistical regressions of environmental and climatological parameters against tropical cyclone intensity change have proven to be useful forecast tools (e.g., SHIFOR, SHIPS, STIPS). The environmental and climatological inputs can be supplemented by satellite-based characterizations of the inner core convection and precipitation. Passive microwave measurements are well suited for this, as they respond to liquid and ice phase precipitation without being masked by upper level cirrus. Addition of such measurements from the SSM/I and TMI to the environmental and climatological predictors in the SHIPS model yields improved intensity forecasts for Atlantic tropical cyclones, presented elsewhere in this conference. The results from the Atlantic basin guide our application of a similar approach for other basins, with preliminary results to be presented here.

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