As part of the NOAA Coastal Storms Initiative (CSI) the WRF mesoscale modeling initiative was conducted at the National Weather Service Forecast Office (WFO) in Jacksonville, Florida.

This study reports the results of the WRF mesoscale model as Tropical Storm Henri approached and crossed the Florida Peninsula. While many models and local forecasts were calling for large cumulative rainfalls from the approaching storm, the WRF results were much more realistic.

A brief review of the WRF initiative, as well as some general results of validation and verification of the model and its impact on forecast operations will be discussed. The specific prognostic results from the Tropical Storm Henri case will be presented along with some probable explanations for the model forecast skill.