Thursday, 6 May 2004: 2:30 PM
Data assimilation using a simple barotropic track model
Napoleon II Room (Deauville Beach Resort)
The impact of assimilating wind data on tropical cyclone track forecasts is studied in a series of experiments using a nondivergent barotropic model. In particular, the impact of wind observations on track forecasts in significantly baroclinic environments is investigated using both four-dimensional variational assimilation (4D-VAR) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques. Results suggest that assimilating wind data can improve forecasts in situations where barotropic track models tend to perform the poorest.
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