Initial development of the SSEO occurred in 2011 when it was tested for severe weather applications during the 2011 Spring Forecasting Experiment (SFE) held at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed. More extensive evaluations including subjective and objective verification were conducted during the 2012 SFE. The fractions skill score (FSS) was calculated for the SSEO updraft helicity neighborhood probabilities relative to observations of severe weather reports. Similarly, the FSS was computed for the SSEO simulated reflectivity neighborhood probabilities as compared to observed radar reflectivity. The skill scores of the SSEO were compared to those from the University of Oklahoma Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) storm-scale ensemble forecast (SSEF) system and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) storm-scale ensemble to gain a relative sense of the performance of the SSEO. Subjective and objective results during the 2012 SFE indicate that the SSEO provides useful information for severe weather forecasting and compares favorably to formal storm-scale ensemble systems.
Supplementary URL: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sseo/