Program: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms (26th Conference on Severe Local Storms (5

Registration Desk Open

Session

Opening Remarks

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL; Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL

Session 1

Severe Storm Processes I: Tornado Dynamics

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: David C. Lewellen, West Virginia Univ.

8:45 AM

1.1

The Fluid Dynamics of Tornadoes

Richard Rotunno, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

1.2

Numerical simulation of three-dimensional vortical interactions within an idealized tornado

Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. L. Büker

9:15 AM

1.2A

Observed 1st-Order Tornadogenesis Mechanisms in Observationally Initialized Numerical Simulations

S.T. Trevorrow, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and G. Tripoli, R. D. Hildner, and M. L. Buker

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (4.8 MB)

9:30 AM

1.3

The effects of low-level stability and nonlinear vortex interactions on tornadogenesis

Marcus L. Büker, Western Illinois University, Macomb, IL; and G. J. Tripoli

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1.4

Three-dimensional instabilitites in tornado-like vortices with secondary circulations

David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.8 MB)

Coffee Break

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Session 2

Severe Storm Processes II: Supercells and Tornadoes

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: George H. Bryan, NCAR

10:30 AM

2.1

Can a gust front tilt horizontal vortex lines to produce a tornado?

Robert Davies-Jones, Emeritus, National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; and P. Markowski

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

10:45 AM

2.2

Numerical Simulations of Supercell Tornadogenesis: The Structure and Evolution of Vortex Lines within Low-Level Mesocyclones and Tornadoes

Wataru Mashiko, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2.3

Baroclinic and Barotropic Vorticity in Simulated Near-surface Mesocyclones

Johannes M. L. Dahl, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker and L. J. Wicker

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2.4

Toy model simulations of horizontal momentum surges in supercells

Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and J. M. L. Dahl

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2.5

The sensitivity of mesocyclonic near-surface vertical vorticity to the low-level shear: A theory based on an analytic density current solution

Adam Houston, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

2.6

A Detailed Analysis of Tornadogenesis in a High-Resolution Simulation of the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell

Alexander D. Schenkman, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue and M. Hu

Recorded Presentation

Break for Lunch

Session 3

New Techniques and Testbeds I

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Angela Lese, NOAA/NWSFO

1:30 PM

3.1

Simulated NWS Tornado Warning Decisions Using Rapid-scan Radar Data

Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. LaDue, D. M. Kingfield, and R. Hoffman

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (449.4 kB)

1:45 PM

3.2

An Evaluation of Tornado Intensity Using Velocity and Strength Attributes from the WSR-88D Mesocyclone Detection Algorithm

Darrel M. Kingfield, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. G. LaDue and K. L. Ortega

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (757.6 kB)

2:00 PM

3.3

Improving tornado intensity estimates using operational Doppler weather radar

Mallie Toth, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp, K. A. Kosiba, and J. Wurman

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3.4

The Experimental Warning Program's 2011 and 2012 Spring Experiments at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/MDL, Norman, OK; and T. M. Smith, A. Anderson, D. L. Andra Jr., K. M. Kuhlman, J. Gao, G. S. Garfield, D. M. Kingfield, E. Mahoney, C. D. Payne, and C. W. Siewert

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.0 MB)

2:30 PM

3.5

Realtime 3DVAR Analyses and Evaluation for use in Warning Decisions in the Hazardous Weather Testbed

Kristin M. Kuhlman, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. M. Smith, J. Gao, D. M. Kingfield, and C. Fu

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3.6

The GOES-R Proving Ground: Demonstrating Future Products to Aid Severe Local Storm Forecasting

Steven J. Goodman, NOAA/NESDIS/GOES-R Program Office, Greenbelt, MD; and J. J. Gurka, T. J. Schmit, W. F. Feltz, J. R. Mecikalski, C. W. Siewert, K. M. Kuhlman, and G. T. Stano

Recorded Presentation

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Poster Session P1

Case Studies of Severe Storms I

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

1

Sensitivities of a squall line over central Europe in a convective-scale ensemble

Kirsty E. Hanley, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and D. J. Kirshbaum, N. Roberts, and G. Leoncini

2

The Influence of Terrain during the 27 April 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak and 5 July 2012 Derecho around the Great Smoky Mountains National Park

David M. Gaffin, NOAA/NWSFO, Morristown, TN

Manuscript (6.1 MB)

Handout (749.1 kB)

3

Analysis of Surface Thermodynamic Characteristics within the Rear-Flank Downdraft of the Wichita, Kansas, Tornadic Supercell of 14 April 2012

Kyle Yaffe, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and A. Gordon and J. Frame

Manuscript (897.5 kB)

Handout (1.4 MB)

4

High resolution in situ wind and pressure measurements in winter tornadoes with LAWPS

Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and E. Sato, S. Onogi, S. Saito, H. Inoue, and W. Mashiko

5

Temporal and vertical evolution of landfalling tornadoes over the Japan Sea area

Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and H. Inoue, W. Mashiko, S. Hayashi, and K. Arai

6

Lightning Signatures of Long-lived Tornadic Supercells in the Southeastern U.S. on 27-28 April 2011

Stephen Strader, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and W. S. Ashley

Manuscript (522.1 kB)

Handout (1.7 MB)

A Rare South Texas Tornado produced during the January 9, 2011 Quasi-Linear Convective System

Michael E. Buchanan, NWS, Corpus Christi, TX

7

An Overview of the 2 March 2012 Morning Tornadic Supercells across Northern Alabama

Anthony Lamont Bain, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and L. Carey, C. J. Schultz, M. Saari, A. Sherrer, and K. Knupp

8

A Meteorological Re-Analysis of the 9 April 1947 Higgins-Glazier-Woodward Tornado

Justyn D. Jackson, NOAA/NWS Amarillo, TX, Amarillo, TX; and B. Kendrick and T. Spencer

9

Higher Terrain Impacts of Eastern Middle Tennessee on Tornadogenesis

Samuel W. Shamburger, NOAA/NWSFO Nashville, Old Hickory, TN

10

Role of the rear-flank-downdraft in the evolution of an occluding mesocyclone in a tornadic supercell

Kyle J. Thiem, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff, D. P. Betten, and G. D. Carrie

11

Kinematic analysis of a bow echo/tornadic supercell complex during the 17 June 2010 Minnesota tornado outbreak

Kyle S. Pennington, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff, D. P. Betten, G. D. Carrie, and C. M. Schwarz

12

Intensity and Structure Changes of Low-Level Tornadic Vortices during Landfall over the Japan Sea Area

Ryohei Kato, Alpha-denshi Co., Ltd. / MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Kusunoki, K. I. Arai, M. Nishihashi, K. Shimose, W. Mashiko, E. Sato, S. Saito, H. Y. Inoue, and H. Morishima

13

Study on the formation and evolution of “6.3”damage wind

Xiuming Wang, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

Manuscript (961.0 kB)

14

Damage Assessment and Radar Analysis of the 10-11 July 2011 Derecho in Iowa

Ray A. Wolf, NOAA/NWS, Davenport, IA; and D. Dubberke, J. Johnson, K. Deitsch, and K. Skow

Manuscript (2.5 MB)

15

The May 26-27, 2010 Eastern New York and Western New England Backdoor Cold Front Severe Weather Event

Thomas Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and B. J. Frugis and N. A. Stuart

Manuscript (2.5 MB)

Handout (3.7 MB)

16

The June 1, 2011 Hail Monster Event across Eastern New York and Western New England

Thomas Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and B. J. Frugis and N. A. Stuart

Handout (5.0 MB)

17

Torrential Rains and Flash Flooding in Québec's Outaouais Region on June 23-24th 2011

Michael Elliott, EC, Montreal, QC, Canada; and S. Mainville

Handout (2.7 MB)

Ensemble-based Analysis of the May 2010 Extreme Rainfall in Tennessee and Kentucky . S. L. Lynch, Colorado State University and Texas A&M University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Poster 18 is also being presented as paper 8B.3A

19

The Analysis on A Shallow Beta-meso-scale Convective System Causing Strong Precipitation - Part I: Kinematical and Thermodynamic Structure

Xiaonong Liao Sr., Beijing Meteorological Bureau, Beijing, FL, China; and Y. Ni

Poster Session P2

New Techniques and Testbeds I

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

20

Diagnosis of Conditional Maximum Tornado Damage Probabilities

Bryan T. Smith, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson, H. E. Brooks, A. R. Dean, and K. L. Elmore

Manuscript (4.0 MB)

21

An Introduction to the Storm Monitor and Analysis Program

David G. Hotz, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN; and J. S. Schaumann and S. F. Oneill

Manuscript (278.5 kB)

22

Creating High-Resolution Hail Datasets Using Social Media and Post-Storm Ground Surveys

Scott F. Blair, NOAA/NWS, Topeka, KS; and J. W. Leighton

23

Use of the Albany Hail Study to Predict Large Hail during the 16 May 2012 and 29 May 2012 Severe Weather Episodes

Brian J. Frugis, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and T. A. Wasula

Manuscript (728.1 kB)

Handout (2.1 MB)

24

The 4 September 2011 Tornado in Eastern New York: An Example for Updating Tornado Warning Strategies

Brian J. Frugis, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and T. A. Wasula

Handout (1.4 MB)

25

Use of Objective Analyses in the National Weather Service's Graphical Forecast Editor to Anticipate a Localized Tornado Outbreak

Ted M. Ryan, NWS, Fort Worth, TX; and D. E. Cavanaugh, J. T. Dunn, and N. L. Hampshire

Manuscript (2.2 MB)

Handout (2.0 MB)

26

Environmental parameters for forecasting tornado outbreak on the outer rain band of typhoon

Kouhei Horiba, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan; and K. Sassa

Handout (3.3 MB)

27

Flash Flood Warning by Basin?

Robert S. Davis, NOAA/NWS, Pittsburgh, PA

28

Linking satellite based lightning initiation nowcasts with WRF lightning threat forecasts to produce a combined nowcast of lightning onset and extent

Matthew D. W. Saari, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Mecikalski and E. W. McCaul Jr.

29

Using UW-Cloud Top Cooling Rates in Convective Storm Warning Experiments

Wayne F. Feltz, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Sieglaff and L. Cronce

Poster Session P3

Novel Observations of Severe Storms

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

30

Comparison of Disdrometer and X-band Mobile Radar Observations in Convective Precipitation

Evan A. Kalina, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and K. Friedrich, S. Ellis, and D. W. Burgess

Handout (7.5 MB)

31

Rapid-Scan Observations of Tornadogenesis, Intesification, and Decay from a Mobile Radar

Jana B. Houser, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein and J. C. Snyder

32

Integration of the total lightning jump algorithm into current operational warning environment conceptual models

Christopher J. Schultz, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and L. D. Carey, E. V. Schultz, G. T. Stano, P. N. Gatlin, D. Kozlowski, and S. Goodman

33

An Inter-comparison of S-band and C-band Polarimetric Radar Signatures of Large Hail and Tornado Debris on 2 March 2012

Lawrence D. Carey, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and C. J. Schultz, A. L. Bain, A. Sherrer, K. R. Knupp, B. Carcione, C. C. Crowe, C. B. Darden, and M. E. Anderson

34

Measurements of DSD with a dense network of disdrometers associated with convective initiation and evolution

Sadao Saito, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and C. Fujiwara, K. Kusunoki, and E. Sato

Handout (220.4 kB)

35

A Comparison of Three Significant Hail Producing Supercells Sampled during HailSTONE Using S-Band Dual-Polarization Radar

Scott F. Blair, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and J. M. Laflin, D. T. Cooper, J. I. Pullin, and S. M. Currens

37

Accuracy of the Dual-Polarization Radar Precipitation Estimation Product within the Nashville, Tennessee County Warning Area

Brittney Whitehead, NOAA/NWSFO Nashville, Old Hickory, TN

38

Early results of operational use of total lightning data from the West Texas Lightning Mapping Array

Steven R. Cobb, NOAA/NWSFO, Lubbock, TX; and J. Jordan, E. C. Bruning, and J. Daniel

39

Radar morphology of tornadic supercells and other convective systems sampled over Texas and Oklahoma during the 2012 Deep Convective Cloud Chemistry (DC3) experiment

Michael I. Biggerstaff, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. R. Mansell, D. P. Betten, D. R. MacGorman, D. W. Burgess, C. L. Ziegler, E. C. Bruning, and G. D. Carrie

40

Three-dimensional structure of misocyclone associated with thunderstorm observed by Ku-band FM-Chirp fast scanning radar

Chusei Fujiwara, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and E. Sato, S. Saito, and K. Kusunoki

Manuscript (417.4 kB)

41

Particle Distributions from the Balloon-Born Particle Imager flown in the DC3 Campaign

Sean Waugh, NSSL, Norman, OK; and W. D. Rust, D. R. MacGorman, S. E. Fredrickson, and D. Kennedy

42

A Photogrammetric Analysis of the April 14 EF4 Tornado near Salina, Kansas

Timothy M. Samaras, Samaras Technologies, Bennett, CO

43

Analyses of the low-level winds in two tornadoes that crossed the Hong Kong International Airport

Paul Robinson, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and P. W. Chan, J. Wurman, C. M. Shun, and K. A. Kosiba

44

Nowcasting Wet Downbursts using Polarimetric Radar

Mariana Scott, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and L. Carey, E. V. Schultz, and W. P. Roeder

45

Recent Afternoon-Evening Transition (AET) and Nocturnal Convective Initiation Events Studied as Part of the UAHuntsville ABIDE Field Project

Stephanie Mullins, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp, T. A. Coleman, T. A. Murphy, A. Sherrer, and R. A. Wade

46

Microphysics of a tornado-producing supercell observed with a dual-polarization C-band radar

Jenni Rauhala, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and K. Solin and D. M. Schultz

47

Observations of Hailstone Characteristics Utilizing a New Instrumentation Platform

Tanya M. Brown, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, Richburg, SC; and I. M. Giammanco and D. S. Robinett

Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Handout (3.2 MB)

48

Multi-sensor observations and analysis of the 14-15 June, 2012 heat bursts in the Texas Panhandle

Mark R. Conder, NOAA/NWSFO, Lubbock, TX; and G. D. Skwira, S. R. Cobb, E. C. Bruning, and J. Daniel

49

An Analysis of Total Lightning Over North Alabama During the 2 March 2012 Tornado Event

Brian Carcione, NOAA/NWS, Huntsville, AL; and K. D. White and G. T. Stano

Manuscript (449.7 kB)

Handout (1.5 MB)

50

Near-Surface Thunderstorm Outflow Characteristics Observed by the TTUKa Mobile Doppler Radars

Patrick S. Skinner, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss, W. S. Gunter, and J. L. Schroeder

Manuscript (8.8 MB)

Handout (3.5 MB)

51

Potential Missions for the SPA-10

Andrew G. Detwiler, South Dakota School of Mines & Technology, Rapid City, SD; and H. H. Jonsson

Handout (1.2 MB)

52

Observations of severe convective storms with operational dual-polarization WSR-88D radars

Matthew R. Kumjian, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and C. D. Payne and P. T. Schlatter

53

Storm environments sampled in Texas and Oklahoma during the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment

Conrad L. Ziegler, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. R. MacGorman, E. C. Bruning, M. Coniglio, M. I. Biggerstaff, E. R. Mansell, D. P. Betten, D. W. Burgess, and G. D. Carrie

54

The Oklahoma-Texas Venue of the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) Experiment

Donald R. MacGorman, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. Ziegler, E. C. Bruning, M. I. Biggerstaff, E. R. Mansell, D. W. Burgess, S. Waugh, D. P. Betten, D. Kennedy, S. E. Fredrickson, G. Carrie, P. L. Heinselman, and T. J. Schuur

55

MPAR Wind Shear Experiment

Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Cho, B. L. Cheong, M. Weadon, M. Emanual, T. Crum, and P. Biron

Manuscript (522.7 kB)

56

Strongly Negative ZDR Signatures in Low Levels of Deep Convection

Michael A. Magsig, NOAA/NWS/WDTB, Norman, OK; and J. G. LaDue, C. D. Payne, and L. R. Lemon

Poster Session P4

Severe Storm Climatology

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

57

Tornadoes in Turkey

Abdullah Kahraman, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey

58

The Role of Low-Level Thermal Instability on Tornado Intensity

Nicholas L. Hampshire, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX; and R. M. Mosier, D. E. Cavanaugh, and T. M. Ryan

Manuscript (463.7 kB)

Handout (267.9 kB)

59

Using Tornado, Lightning, and Population Data to Identify Tornado Prone Areas in Canada

David M. L. Sills, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and V. Cheng, B. Rousseau, P. J. McCarthy, J. Waller, J. Klaassen, and H. Auld

Manuscript (3.2 MB)

60

An examination of tornado environments, events, and impacts from 2003-2012

Andrew R. Dean, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. Schneider

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (1.1 MB)

61

Towards a Tornado Power Climatology for Tennessee

Robert Mark Simpson, Univ. of Tennessee at Martin, Martin, TN

62

Examination of WSR-88D VWP Data in Proximity to Strong Tornadoes

Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. A. Hart

Manuscript (330.4 kB)

63

Application of a self-organizing map statistical technique to a RUC supercell proximity sounding database

Anders A. Jensen, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and C. J. Nowotarski

Manuscript (7.6 MB)

64

A Climatology of Great Plains Supercells from 2005-2007

Cody D. Oppermann, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

Manuscript (1.7 MB)

65

Comparison of Nocturnal Supercells Environments of Hail and Wind to Hail Only Events across the Central and Northern Plains

Joshua M. Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Omaha, NE; and P. N. Schumacher

66

Identification of Ideal Smoothing Radii and Appropriate Seasonal Applications for Tornado Climatology Research

P. Grady Dixon, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. E. Mercer, K. Grala, and W. H. Cooke

67

Climatology of Tornado Outbreaks in the Eastern United States

Christopher M. Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Chapel Hill, NC; and C. E. Konrad, J. McLeod, M. M. Kovach, and W. Schmitz

68

Environmental and Observational Characteristics Associated with Tornadic QLCSs

Matthew E. Anderson, NOAA/NWSFO, Calera, AL; and K. B. Laws, B. M. Williams, and C. J. Rohrbach

69

An update from the Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment (SHAVE)

Kiel L. Ortega, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Handout (1.6 MB)

70

Significant hail producing storms in Finland

Jari-Petteri Tuovinen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and J. Rauhala

Manuscript (222.3 kB)

71

Statistical Analysis of Summer MCS in Middle Eastern China

yun chen, National Meteorological Center, CMA, Beijing, China; and B. zeng

72

Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Stationary Mesoscale Convective Systems over Complex Terrain in Japan

Takashi Unuma, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan; and T. Takemi

73

Climatology of Null Severe Outbreak Events

Alyssa V. Bates, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. E. Mercer

74

The Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms (MYRORSS) Project

Kiel L. Ortega, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK ; and T. M. Smith, J. Zhang, C. Langston, Y. Qi, S. E. Stevens, and J. E. Tate

Handout (2.5 MB)

75

Appalachian lee troughs and their association with severe convective storms

Daniel B. Thompson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, T. A. Wasula, and M. R. Kramar

76

National Weather Service Contributions to the CSTAR High Shear/Low CAPE Severe Convective Storms Project

Justin D. Lane, NOAA/NWSFO, Greer, SC; and H. Coleman, P. D. Moore, J. Blaes, and T. D. Palmer

77

Identifying and Ranking Multi-Day Severe Weather Outbreaks

Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and C. A. Doswell III

Manuscript (1.0 MB)

Handout (2.8 MB)

78

A Proposed Relationship Between Nocturnal Convection and Bores as Determined from Observations Taken During the IHOP_2002 Project

Kevin R. Haghi, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. Parsons and J. Wang

79

A radar-based climatology of tropopause folds and deep convection

Bogdan Antonescu, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and G. Vaughan and D. M. Schultz

80

Observation study during the pre-monsoon season over northeast Bangladesh

Masashi Kiguchi, University of Tokyo, Toyko, Japan; and F. Murata, T. Terao, T. Hayashi, and T. Oki

81

STEPCLIM: Severe Thunderstorm Evaluation and Predictability in Climate Models

Georg Pistotnik, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, K. Riemann-Campe, and T. Kühne

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (938.8 kB)

82

Diurnal variations in severe weather forecast parameters of RUC-2 model-derived proximity environments associated with tornadoes from 2003-2011

L. J. Reames, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. M. Straka

83

Impact of Choices made when Creating Composite Soundings: Feature versus Height Averaging and Moisture Variable Considerations

Alexander R. Zarnowski, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and M. S. Gilmore

Handout (2.6 MB)

Poster Session P5

Severe Storm Processes I

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

84

Slope of Vorticity Lines Derived from Numerical Models as a Tornado Predictor

Doug Dokken, University of St. Thomas, St. Paul, MN; and K. Scholz, M. Shvartsman, and P. Belik

85

The strucuture of a multiple-vortex type tornado realized in a supercell simulator

Koji Sassa, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan; and I. Hamada

Handout (8.3 MB)

86

Controllable outflow generator for the experiment of a non-supercell tornado

Yuta Minekawa, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan; and K. Sassa

Manuscript (2.1 MB)

87

A Parametric Wind-Pressure Relationship for a Rankine vs. Non-Rankine Cyclostrophic Vortices

Vincent T. Wood, NOAA, Norman, OK; and L. W. White

Manuscript (1013.2 kB)

Handout (2.4 MB)

87A

Using a Four–Face Phased Array Radar to Detect Tornadoes and Mesocyclones: A Simulation Study

Rodger A. Brown, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and V. T. Wood

Manuscript (440.7 kB)

Handout (697.0 kB)

88

Understanding the role of wave-like turbulent structures in tornadic supercells through an electromagnetic-hydrodynamic analogy

Richard D. Hildner, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. L. Buker

Circulation Budgets of Supercell-spawned Tornado-like Vortices

Justin K. Weber, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and M. S. Gilmore and J. Naylor

Session 4A

New Techniques and Testbeds II

Location: Symphony I (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Andrew R. Dean, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC

4:15 PM

4A.1

Profiling the Local Tornadic Environment

Steven Koch, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. Nelson, R. Ware, and S. Albers

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4A.2

Use of the NAM Model 1.33 km Movable Fire Weather Nest for Severe Weather Applications during the Spring of 2012

Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, A. R. Dean, E. Rogers, and G. J. DiMego

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4A.3

Assessment and prediction of seasonal tornado activity: A status update and application to the 2011 and 2012 warm seasons

Robert J. Trapp, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and M. E. Baldwin and H. E. Brooks

5:00 PM

4A.4

A Method for Calibrating Deterministic Forecasts of Rare Events

Patrick T. Marsh, NOAA/NSSL & OU/CIMMS/SoM, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, V. Lakshmanan, and A. J. Clark

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4A.5

Associating Magnitudes of Severe Weather Diagnostic Variables with Severe Event Probabilities

Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and M. W. Stanford, M. Richman, L. Leslie, C. A. Doswell III, and A. E. Mercer

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.9 MB)

5:30 PM

4A.6

A Tropical Cyclone Tornado Parameter (TCTP) for use in situational awareness forecasting

Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and B. M. Hays and M. C. Link

Recorded Presentation

Session 4B

Severe Storm Processes III: Environmental Impacts on Tornadoes and Deep Convection

Location: Symphony II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State University

4:15 PM

4B.1

Effects of Topography on Tornado Dynamics: A Simulation Study

David C. Lewellen, West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, WV

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

4:30 PM

4B.2

Understanding Terrain Impacts on Tornado Flow through Tree-fall Analysis of the Joplin and Tuscaloosa-Birmingham Tornadoes of 2011 and through Numerical and Laboratory Vortex Simulations

Christopher D. Karstens, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., P. Sarkar, B. D. Lee, and C. A. Finley

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4B.3

Environmental Factors Influential to the Duration and Intensity of Tornadoes in Simulated Supercells

Jason Naylor, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND ; and M. S. Gilmore

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4B.4

ARW-WRF Simulations of Thermodynamic Destabilization Supporting MCS Initiation in Differing Warm-Season Meteorological Regimes

Stanley B. Trier, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis, D. A. Ahijevych, and K. W. Manning

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4B.5

Two contrasting evolutions of quasi-linear convective systems encountering the northeastern U.S. coastal marine environment

Kelly Lombardo, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

4B.6

What is RKW Theory?

George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (352.9 kB)

Storm Video Night

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Session 5

Case Studies I: 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS/SPC

8:30 AM

5.1

The 2011 and 2012 tornado seasons: Questions for the SPC and NSSL that were asked (and weren't asked) by the media, the public, and other government groups

Harold E. Brooks, NOAA, Norman, OK; and G. W. Carbin and K. Pirtle

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5.2

The Devastating 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak: Initial Scientific Assessment

Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and T. Murphy, S. Mullins, R. Wade, and T. Coleman

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5.3

Damage survey of the Tuscaloosa - Birmingham, AL tornado

Jim Stefkovich, NOAA/NWS, Calera, AL; and T. P. Marshall, J. De Block, J. G. LaDue, and C. Karsten

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.4 MB)

9:30 AM

5.4

Mesoscale and Stormscale Ingredients of Tornadic Supercells Producing Long-Track Tornadoes in the 2011 Alabama Super Outbreak

Samantha L. Chiu, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and B. F. Jewett and R. B. Wilhelmson

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5.5

Observations of a Thermal Boundary and its Interaction with the 27 April 2011 EF-5 Hackleburg Tornado

Adam Sherrer, Severe Weather Institute and Radar and Lightning Laboratories (SWIRLL) / University of Alabama Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and R. A. Wade, T. A. Murphy, S. Mullins, T. Coleman, D. Phillips, and K. Knupp

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Session 6

Case Studies II: 2011 and 2012 High-Impact Events

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Roger Edwards, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC

10:30 AM

6.1

Damage Survey of the Joplin Tornado

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX; and W. Davis and S. Runnels

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.3 MB)

10:45 AM

6.2

Rapid Intensification Mechanisms Including the Role of Storm Mergers in the 22 May 2011 Joplin, MO Tornadic Storm

Kevin W. Van Leer, Risk Management Solutions, Inc, Newark, CA; and B. F. Jewett and R. B. Wilhelmson

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6.3

A comparison of high resolution tornado surveys to Doppler radar observed mesocyclone parameters: 2011-2012 case studies

James G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS/WDB, Norman, OK; and K. L. Ortega, B. R. Smith, G. J. Stumpf, and D. M. Kingfield

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.9 MB)

11:15 AM

6.4

Examination of a Remarkable Great Lake-Spawned Tornadic Supercell: The 2011 Goderich Ontario F3 Tornado Event

David M. L. Sills, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and A. Ashton

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (4.7 MB)

11:30 AM

6.5

Meteorological and Environmental Factors Contributing to Hail Glaciers on the Southern High Plains

T. Todd Lindley, NOAA/NWS, Amarillo, TX; and J. D. Jackson and J. C. Love

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

6.6

An Overview of the Historic 19-20 June 2012 Flash Flood Event in Duluth, MN and Adjacent Areas of Northern Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin

Daniel J. Miller, NOAA/NWS/WFO, Duluth, MN; and B. Tentinger, R. Sengenberger, S. Gohde, G. Grochocinski, and D. Cooper

Recorded Presentation

Break for Lunch

Session 7

Advancements in Numerical Weather Prediction I

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA

1:30 PM

7.1

Progress and Challenges with Warn-on-Forecast

David J. Stensrud, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker, E. R. Mansell, J. Gao, M. C. Coniglio, H. E. Brooks, M. Xue, D. T. Dawson II, N. Yussouf, D. M. Wheatley, T. A. Jones, R. M. Belobraydich, T. M. Smith, K. M. Kuhlman, A. Clark, and D. Dowell

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7.2

3DVAR analysis and forecast experiments for the 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak

Jidong Gao, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Tang, C. Fu, D. C. Dowell, and D. J. Stensrud

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7.3

Comparisons between analysis and prediction of convection using conventional and rapid-scan weather Doppler radar data

Louis J. Wicker, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and T. E. Ladwig, C. K. Potvin, and E. R. Mansell

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7.4

Realtime mesoscale analysis with WRF-DART for explicit convective forecasts

Glen Romine, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Schwartz, M. Weisman, C. Snyder, and J. Anderson

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7.5

Improvements in the analysis of the convective storm environment for the 2nd generation Rapid Refresh: impact on RAP and nested HRRR forecasts

Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, E. P. James, M. Hu, D. C. Dowell, S. G. Benjamin, P. Hofmann, and H. Lin

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7.6

Recent and Future Advancements in Convective-Scale Storm Prediction with the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forecast System

Curtis Alexander, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, S. S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, T. G. Smirnova, M. Hu, P. Hofmann, E. P. James, J. M. Brown, and B. D. Jamison

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Session 8A

Advancements in Numerical Weather Prediction II

Location: Symphony I (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL

3:30 PM

8A.1

Ensemble Kalman filter analyses and forecasts of a severe mesoscale convective system observed during BAMEX

Dustan M. Wheatley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, M. C. Coniglio, and D. J. Stensrud

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

8A.2

An OSSE framework for assessing the utility of storm-scale ensemble forecasts to tornado warning operations

Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.7 MB)

4:00 PM

8A.3

Convective-scale EnKF analyses of a developing convective system: Results from OSSEs and real-data experiments

Ryan A. Sobash, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

8A.4

Tests of a cycled EnKF data assimilation and forecasts for the 10 May 2010 tornado outbreak in the central US domain

Youngsun Jung, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, Y. Wang, Y. Pan, and K. Zhu

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

8A.5

Comparisons of Storm-Scale Doppler Radar Data Assimilation using LETKF and EnSRF

Therese E. Thompson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker and X. Wang

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

8A.6

Assimilation of dual-polarimetric radar observations and its impact on a summertime local convective storm

Xuanli Li, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Mecikalski

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.3 MB)

Session 8B

Case Studies III: Severe Mesoscale Convective Systems

Location: Symphony II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Kelly Lombardo, N/A

3:30 PM

8B.1

A Radar-based Analysis of the Mesoscale Convective Vortex that Crossed N AL on the Morning of 27 April 2011

Stephanie Mullins, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

8B.2

A kinematic, multiple Doppler, and dual-pol radar analysis of the mid-day tornadic QLCS during the historic April 27th super outbreak

Ryan A. Wade, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and T. A. Murphy and K. R. Knupp

Recorded Presentation

8B.3

Leading Stratiform, Trailing Mesocyclone - Implications for QLCS Tornadoes

Karl Jungbluth, NOAA/NWS, Des Moines, IA; and K. Skow and K. Deitsch

4:00 PM

8B.3A

Ensemble-based Analysis of the May 2010 Extreme Rainfall in Tennessee and Kentucky

Samantha L. Lynch, Colorado State University and Texas A&M University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

8B.4

Subtropical Continental Anticyclones, the “Ring-of-Fire,” and Intense Derechos

Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. T. Guastini and R. A. Lazear

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

8B.5

The 29 June 2012 Derecho: Analysis of a 3 km WRF-ARW Forecast and Comparisons to the 8 May 2009 Derecho Event

Morris L. Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Evans, G. Romine, and K. W. Manning

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

8B.6

Analysis of the Development of the Intense Warm-Core Mesovortex Associated with the 8 May 2009 Central United States "Super Derecho" Event

Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and M. Weisman and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

26th Severe Local Storms Conference Women's Dinner to be held at 1808 Grille located at 1808 West End Avenue. Please RSVP to Yvette Richardson (yrichardson@psu.edu) by October 31 so an accurate reservation number may be provided in advance.

Session 9

Severe Weather Climatology I

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Casey Letkewicz, US Air Force Academy

8:30 AM

9.1

Identifying Discriminating Environmental Features Between High Shear/Low CAPE Severe Convection and Null Events

Keith D. Sherburn, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

8:45 AM

9.2

Radar Climatology of Tornadoes Occurring in High Shear/Low CAPE Environments in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast

Jason M. Davis, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

9:00 AM

9.3

A Climatology of Bow Echo Mesovortices

George Limpert, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. Houston

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

9.4

Significant tornado events associated with cell mergers

Jaret W. Rogers, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (918.9 kB)

9:30 AM

9.5

Spatial distributions of tornadic near-storm environments by convective mode

Richard L. Thompson, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and B. T. Smith, A. R. Dean, and P. T. Marsh

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (5.3 MB)

9:45 AM

9.6

Nonsupercell Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes: Documentation, Classification and Uncertainties

Roger Edwards, SPC, Norman, OK; and A. R. Dean, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Coffee Break

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Session 10

New Techniques and Testbeds III

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Bryan T. Smith, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC

10:30 AM

10.1

An Overview of the 2012 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., A. R. Dean, P. T. Marsh, C. J. Melick, S. D. Miller Jr., R. Sobash, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, V. Lakshmanan, D. A. Imy, and S. R. Dembek

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.2 MB)

10:45 AM

10.2

Investigation of an Automated Temporal Disaggregation Technique for Convective Outlooks during the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and C. J. Melick, A. R. Dean, S. J. Weiss, and J. Correia Jr.

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (557.5 kB)

11:00 AM

10.3

Assessment of timing and coverage of convection during the 2012 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Stuart D. Miller Jr., CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, P. T. Marsh, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, V. Lakshmanan, J. Correia Jr., D. A. Imy, S. R. Dembek, I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, A. R. Dean, C. J. Melick, R. Sobash, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K. W. Thomas

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (294.0 kB)

11:15 AM

10.4

Object-based data mining in forecasting and verification: Adventures in the 2011-2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Experimental Forecast Program (EFP)

James Correia Jr., NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and P. T. Marsh, S. J. Weiss, A. Kaulfus, and S. M. Stough

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

10.5

Experimental forecasting of severe storms in Europe: synthesis of five weeks of ESSL Testbed operations

Pieter Groenemeijer, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and A. M. Holzer, G. Pistotnik, and K. Riemann-Campe

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

10.6

Developments in High Resolution Forecasting of Severe Convection at the Met Office

Humphrey W. Lean, Met Office, Reading, U.K.; and E. Carter, C. Halliwell, N. Roberts, and G. Leoncini

Recorded Presentation

Break for Lunch

Session 11A

Severe Storm Climatology II

Location: Symphony I (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Jeff Trapp, Purdue University

1:30 PM

11A.1

Severe Thunderstorm Environments: What Does the Future Hold for Australia?

John T. Allen, Columbia University, NY; and D. J. Karoly

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

11A.2

Trends in Severe Thunderstorms from High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling and an Artificial Neural Network

Eric D. Robinson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp and M. E. Baldwin

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

11A.3

Climatic controls on severe weather in the U.S.: Modulation by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, Maryland

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

11A.4

Analysis of Central U.S. Deep Convection Initiation Environments

Noah A. Lock, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (902.5 kB)

2:30 PM

11A.5

Toward an objective climatology of extreme rainfall in the United States

Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. N. Stevenson

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

11A.6

Investigation of Supercells in China :Environmental and Storm Characteristics

Xiaoding Yu Sr., China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing, China; and X. Wang, H. Fei, and J. Zhao

Manuscript (1012.0 kB)

Handout (660.5 kB)

Session 11B

Severe Storm Processes IV: Supercell Morphology

Location: Symphony II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Yvette P. Richardson, Pennsylvania State University

1:30 PM

11B.1

Polarimetric radar observations and microphysical model simulations of melting hail

Matthew R. Kumjian, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and K. L. Ortega, A. V. Ryzhkov, J. Krause, and S. M. Ganson

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

11B.2

Simulating polarimetric signatures associated with supercells in different kinematic environments

Jeffrey C. Snyder, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein and Y. Jung

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

11B.3

Observations of Low-Level Mesocyclone Redevelopment Using a Trajectory Mapping Technique

Daniel P. Betten, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK ; and M. I. Biggerstaff

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

11B.4

The influence of horizontal convective rolls on the morphology of low-level rotation in idealized simulations of supercell thunderstorms

Christopher J. Nowotarski, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. M. Markowski, Y. P. Richardson, and G. H. Bryan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.5 MB)

2:30 PM

11B.5

An assessment of internal and external forcings in supercell interactions and their impact on storm morphology

Ann Syrowski, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and B. F. Jewett and R. B. Wilhelmson

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

11B.6

Mergers in supercell environments. Part I: Conceptual models of mechanisms governing merger outcomes

Ryan M. Hastings, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson, P. Markowski, J. Wurman, and C. C. Weiss

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (8.6 MB)

Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Poster Session P6

Advancements in Numerical Weather Prediction

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

89

Dual-Doppler vs. EnKF wind analyses of the 29-30 May 2004 Geary, Oklahoma, supercell

Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker, M. I. Biggerstaff, D. P. Betten, and A. M. Shapiro

Manuscript (6.6 MB)

Handout (2.9 MB)

90

The Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell Storm using Single and Double Moment Microphysics Schemes

Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL, Norman, OK; and E. R. Mansell, L. J. Wicker, D. M. Wheatley, and D. J. Stensrud

91

Evaluation of the Improved Humidity Analysis in Multiscale Data Assimilation on Windsor Tornado

Hongli Jiang, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and Y. Xie, S. Albers, D. L. Birkenheuer, Z. Toth, H. Yuan, S. Koch, and R. Ware

92

Impact of Doppler Weather Radar Data Assimilation on the Predictions of Mesoscale Convective Systems

Mohan Kumar Das, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh; and S. K. Debsarma

Manuscript (729.3 kB)

Handout (1.9 MB)

Evaluating the Contribution of NASA Remotely-Sensed Data Sets on a Convection-Allowing Forecast Model

Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. L. Case and A. L. Molthan

93

Assimilation of GLD-360 lightning data and SATCAST convective initiation data into the RAP and RUC models and lightning forecast guidance from nested HRRR runs

Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, C. Alexander, M. Hu, H. Lin, E. W. McCaul Jr., and J. Mecikalski

94

Using Cloud Liquid Water Path to Improve Severe Weather Forecasts with WRF-DART

Thomas A. Jones, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda

95

The Effects of Digital Filter Initialization on Convection Initiation in a WRF-DART Mesoscale Ensemble Analysis

Anthony E. Reinhart, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. Snyder, G. Romine, and C. C. Weiss

96

A diabatic Lagrangian technique for the analysis of convective storms

Conrad L. Ziegler, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

97

Combining Real-Time TDWR Data with NEXRAD Data for Nowcasting and Numerical Weather Prediction

Keith A. Brewster, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. W. Thomas and Y. Wang

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Handout (660.3 kB)

98

Real-time Radar Radial Velocity Assimilation Experiments in a Pre-operational Framework in North China

Min Chen, Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing, China; and M. X. Chen, S. Y. Fan, H. Wang, and J. Sun

Poster Session P7

Case Studies of Severe Storms II

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

99

Convective and meso-scale measurements of convective initiation and evolution associated with seabreeze front and outflow boundary

Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and S. Saito and C. Fujiwara

100

A summary of radar and in situ near-ground observations within winter tornadic vortices during the Shonai Area Railroad Weather Project in Japan

Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Inoue, W. Mashiko, S. Hayashi, M. Nishihashi, K. Shimose, K. Arai, and H. Morishima

101

Performance of Residences and Shelters in the Oklahoma Tornadoes

James G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS/WDTB, Norman, OK; and T. P. Marshall, K. L. Ortega, and G. J. Stumpf

Manuscript (1.7 MB)

102

Mobile radar observations and damage assessment of the 24 May 2011, Canton Lake, OK tornado

Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman, P. Robinson, C. Schwarz, D. W. Burgess, E. R. Mansell, and D. T. Dawson II

Manuscript (2.1 MB)

Handout (9.6 MB)

103

Evidence of upscale feedback from recent tornadic storms

Joseph M. Woznicki, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp

104

A Case Study of a Rare Long-Track EF-3 Tornado in Eastern Kentucky

Ryan J. Difani, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY; and T. R. Binkley, A. C. Dockery, J. L. Thomas, Q. A. Walker, and J. D. Durkee

105

The Raymore Tornado of 2 July 2010 - and the Potential Interaction of an Enhanced Horizontal Convective Roll

Mark A. Melsness, MSC, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; and S. Massey

106

Supplemental Damage Indicators Discovered in Recent Strong Tornadoes

Christopher D. Karstens, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., P. Sarkar, and T. P. Marshall

107

Observations and Analysis of Atmospheric Waves During the Historic April 27, 2011 Tornado Outbreak

Todd A. Murphy, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and T. A. Coleman and K. R. Knupp

Handout (3.3 MB)

108

The 17 January 2012 Tornado Outbreak Across the Ohio Valley

Linda Gilbert, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and J. Denman and M. J. Paddock

109

The 2 March 2012 Tornado Outbreak: Where Tornadoes Did Not Form Across the Ohio Valley

Michael J. Paddock, NOAA/NWS, Louisville, KY; and A. Lese

110

A High-Elevation Tornado over Northern Arizona

David O. Blanchard, NOAA/NWS, Flagstaff, AZ

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

111

WSR-88D Observations of Mini-supercells in Tropical Environments

Daniel Hawblitzel, NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO

Handout (2.2 MB)

112

Multiple Doppler analysis of the Tsukuba tornado on May 6, 2012 - A supercell tornado in convergence line

Eiichi Sato, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and H. Yamauchi, W. Mashiko, Y. Shoji, and O. Suzuki

Manuscript (1.9 MB)

113

Ensemble Forecast Products for the 14 April 2012 Severe Weather Event in Nebraska

James R. McCormick, UCAR, Offutt AFB, NE; and E. Kuchera and S. Rentschler

Manuscript (1019.1 kB)

114

Extreme damage incidents in the 27 April 2011 tornado superoutbreak

Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL ; and K. Knupp, C. B. Darden, and K. B. Laws

Handout (2.2 MB)

115

Reconstruction of near-surface tornado wind fields from forest damage patterns in complex terrain

Christopher M. Godfrey, University of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and C. J. Peterson

Handout (9.5 MB)

116

13 May 2010 Severe Bow Echo Event Over Northeast Oklahoma Part 1: Synoptic and Mesoscale Environment

J. Brad McGavock, NOAA, Tulsa, OK; and K. Hatfield, S. A. Amburn, R. W. Przybylinski, and N. Atkins

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (1.5 MB)

117

13 May 2010 Severe Bow Eecho Event Over Northeast Oklahoma. Part 2: Characteristics of Reflectivity Structures and Mesovortex Evolution

Ron W. Przybylinski, NOAA/NWSFO, Saint Charles, MO; and J. B. McGavock, K. Hatfield, S. A. Amburn, and N. T. Atkins

Handout (1.0 MB)

118

Local Severe Storms in Bangladesh and adjoining Indian Territory: A Case Study of 13th-15th April, 2010

Fatima Akter, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; and H. Ishikawa

Poster Session P8

Evaluation of Model and Human Forecasts

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

119

Tornado Warning Verification by Storm Environment

Yvette P. Richardson, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. R. Dean and A. Anderson-Frey

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

120

Relationships between Convective Mode and Tornado Warning Probability of Detection and Lead Time

Steven E. Nelson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Peachtree City, GA; and J. A. Brotzge, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith

121

Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs

Jeffrey M. Medlin, NOAA/NWS, Mobile, AL; and L. Wood, B. T. Zavodsky, J. L. Case, and A. L. Molthan

Manuscript (673.5 kB)

Handout (8.6 MB)

122

Verification of Instability Parameters over the Great Plains from RAP Model Forecast Soundings

Jennifer M. Laflin, NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO

123

Usefulness of Storm-Scale Model Guidance in SPC Fire Weather Events with Dry Thunder

Benjamin S. Herzog, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. J. Melick, J. S. Grams, I. L. Jirak, A. R. Dean, and S. J. Weiss

Manuscript (345.5 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

124

Probabilistic forecasts of severe convection with a WRF-DART analysis and convection-permitting forecast system

Logan C. Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and G. Romine, S. Tessendorf, and C. S. Schwartz

125

Statistical analyses of convective updraughts using radar scans and model data

Kirsty E. Hanley, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and B. Plant, T. Stein, R. Hogan, J. Nicol, E. Carter, and H. W. Lean

126

Tracking the three-dimensional evolution of convective storms in radar observations and high-resolution models

Thorwald Hendrik Matthias Stein, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and K. E. Hanley, R. Hogan, R. S. Plant, E. Carter, H. W. Lean, J. Nicol, C. Halliwell, and A. Macallan

127

Revisiting the 1976 Jordan Iowa F5 tornado: A case of subtle forcing with extreme sensitivity of WRF simulations to initial conditions

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA

Manuscript (1.5 MB)

128

Examination of Storm Cell Evolution using the GTRI DBSCAN Cell Identification and Tracking Algorithm

John M. Trostel, Georgia Tech Research Institute, Atlanta, GA; and J. Reed

129

A Comparative Evaluation of the Effects of Two and Three Dimensional Clustering on Storm Cell Identification Performance

Jenny Reed, Georgia Tech Research Institute, Atlanta, GA; and J. M. Trostel

130

Evaluation of different ensemble configurations for the analysis and prediction of high-impact mesoscale convective systems

Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Clark

131

Skill of 1- and 4-km WRF-ARW Forecasts of Storm Mode and Motion

Michael VandenBerg, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio and A. J. Clark

132

Evaluation of the Model MM5 Performance in an Extreme Precipitation Event and a Deeper Analysis of its Meteorological Causes

Bruno Kabke Bainy, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brazil; and M. D. S. Teixeira

Manuscript (702.6 kB)

Poster Session P9

New Techniques and Testbeds II

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

133

Utilizing Divergence Tendency in Forecasting Convective Initiation

Kelton T. Halbert, Lipscomb University, Nashville, TN; and W. G. Blumberg

Handout (44.5 MB)

134

Objective Diagnosis of Thunderstorms and Convection Initiation Using Convection-Allowing Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Patrick T. Marsh, NOAA/NSSL & OU/CIMMS/SoM, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, A. J. Clark, V. Lakshmanan, G. Thompson, S. R. Dembek, S. D. Miller Jr., M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, and M. Xue

135

Preliminary assessment of timing differences between convective initiation and severe initiation

Stuart D. Miller Jr., CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Correia Jr.

Manuscript (665.9 kB)

Handout (828.6 kB)

136

Evaluation of Experimental Atmospheric Profiling Systems and WRF-ARW PBL schemes during the 2012 NOAA/HWT Experimental Forecast Program

Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. W. Douglas, D. D. Turner, and M. Fuentes

Handout (17.4 MB)

137

The SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity: Overview and Results from the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and S. J. Weiss and C. J. Melick

Manuscript (477.5 kB)

Handout (653.7 kB)

138

CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting System for the NOAA HWT 2012 Spring Experiment: Impact of IC/LBC Perturbations

Fanyou Kong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, A. J. Clark, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., and P. Marsh

139

The WRF Lightning Forecast Algorithm: Recent updates and results from convective ensemble forecasts

Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL ; and J. L. Case, S. R. Dembek, F. Kong, S. J. Goodman, and S. J. Weiss

Handout (90.0 kB)

140

Identifying Key Features to Predict Significant Severe Weather Outbreaks in the Northeast United States

Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (2.3 MB)

141

Probabilistic Techniques in the Diagnosis of Severe Weather Outbreaks

Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and A. E. Mercer, C. A. Doswell III, L. Leslie, and M. Richman

Handout (997.2 kB)

142

Operational Application of 0-3 km Bulk Shear Vectors in Assessing Quasi Linear Convective System Mesovortex and Tornado Potential

Jason S. Schaumann, NOAA/NWSFO, Springfield, MO; and R. W. Przybylinski

Manuscript (3.6 MB)

Handout (3.8 MB)

Poster Session P10

Severe Storm Processes II

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Near-Surface Vorticity Generation in Tornadic and Non-Tornadic Simulated Supercells

Jason Naylor, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND ; and M. S. Gilmore

143

Mergers in supercell environments. Part II: Tornadogenesis potential during merger as evaluated by changes in the near-surface low-level mesocyclone

Ryan M. Hastings, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson and P. Markowski

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

144

A numerical investigation of the dependence of the circulation of low-level mesocyclones on the characteristics of the outflow and the environment

Casey Webster, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. Markowski and Y. Richardson

145

Effects of Mid-Tropospheric Dry Air on Evolution of Supercell Storms

Takumi Honda, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan; and T. Kawano and R. Kawamura

Manuscript (312.5 kB)

146

The configuration change and Train effect mechanism of multi-cell storm

SUN Jisong, CMA, Beijing, Beijing, China

147

Numerical investigation of the bent hodograph shape and its effects on storm structure and evolution

Amanda K. Kis, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. M. Straka

148

Idealized Simulations of Mergers Between Squall Lines and Isolated Supercell Thunderstorms

Adam J. French, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. D. Parker

Manuscript (3.0 MB)

Handout (13.4 MB)

149

The Influences of Low-Level Stability on Bow Echo Mesovortex Genesis

George Limpert, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. Houston

Poster Session P11

Societal Factors in Severe Weather

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

150

Ethnic and Cultural Differences in Tornado Hazard Perception and Preparedness in Tuscaloosa

Jason C. Senkbeil, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL

151

An Assessment of Real-Time Tornado Information Disseminated through NWS Tornado Warnings and Statements

Jared W. Leighton, NOAA/NWS, Topeka, KS; and S. F. Blair

152

The 3 April 2012 tornado outbreak: An Analysis of the North Texas Integrated Warning Team

Dennis E. Cavanaugh, NOAA/NWSFO, Fort Worth, TX; and M. Huffman, M. Fox, J. E. Trainor, B. Phillips, C. League, C. Little, and R. Miller

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (1.7 MB)

153: Analysis of Tornado Debris Trajectories During the 27 April 2011 Super Outbreak as Determined Using Social Media Data . J. A. Knox, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; A. W. Black, J. Rackley, and V. Gensini

Poster 153 is also being presented as Paper 12.4A.

154

Using Social Media for Scientific Research: Experiences from a Tornado Debris Research Project

John A. Knox, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and A. W. Black, J. Rackley, and V. Gensini

155

Modeling and Quantification of Severe Thunderstorm Risk in Australia from Re/Insurance Perspectives

Jianming Yin, Tokio Marine Technologies LLC, Duluth, GA; and B. Yu

Manuscript (532.2 kB)

Handout (532.2 kB)

156

Mapping Social Vulnerability to Landfalling Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin

Dereka Carroll, NCAR, Dallas, TX; and J. M. Done, D. Ahijevych, and G. Villarini

157

Weather Ready Nation: A Vital Conversation—Themes and Actions from the December 2011 Meeting in Norman Oklahoma

John T. Ferree, NOAA/NWS, Norman, OK; and E. Jacks

Poster Session P12

VORTEX2 Results

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

158

Mobile Radar and Fixed-Location Radar Data Comparison for a VORTEX2 Case: Two Tornadic Supercells on May 19, 2010

Christopher M. Schwarz, WDT, Norman, OK; and D. W. Burgess

Manuscript (2.8 MB)

159

Composite supercell environments from VORTEX2

Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and B. Coffer and C. MacIntosh

160

The Tornadogenesis Phase of a VORTEX2 Supercell on June 7, 2010

Elizabeth A. Davidson, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. W. Burgess

Manuscript (1.7 MB)

161

Effect of cell merger and environmental boundaries on the evolution of a supercell thunderstorm observed during VORTEX2

Curtis J. Riganti, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and M. I. Biggerstaff, C. M. Schwarz, D. P. Betten, G. D. Carrie, and K. J. Thiem

162

Single and Dual-Doppler Radar Observations of a Nontornadic Supercell Thunderstorm on 6 June 2010

Zachary B. Wienhoff, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. Frame

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (1.8 MB)

163

Single and Dual-Doppler Radar Observations of a Left-Moving Supercell Thunderstorm on 26 May 2009

Mark D. Savin, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. W. Frame

Handout (935.8 kB)

164

Preliminary analysis of the 10 June 2010 supercells intercepted by VORTEX2 near Last Chance, Colorado

Alicia M. Klees, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson and P. M. Markowski

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

165

An Examination of the Structure of Two Tornadoes Observed by Texas Tech Ka-band Radars During VORTEX2

Ryan S. Metzger, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss and A. E. Reinhart

Manuscript (913.0 kB)

166

The 12 May 2010 tornadic supercell intercepted by VORTEX2 near Clinton, Oklahoma

Timothy P. Hatlee, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. Richardson and P. Markowski

167

Idealized Simulations of Supercell Demise Based on VORTEX2 Observations

Casey E. Letkewicz, United States Air Force Academy, USAF Academy, CO; and M. D. Parker

Handout (4.6 MB)

Evolution of the VORTEX-2 Goshen County, Wyoming Storm on June 5, 2009 as Observed from Simulations Initialized with Real Data

S. T. Trevorrow, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli

168

EnKF assimilation of storm-scale, mobile Doppler radar data into high-resolution analyses of a weakly tornadic supercell

Robin L. Tanamachi, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, Y. Jung, K. A. Brewster, and M. I. Biggerstaff

Manuscript (9.7 MB)

169

An investigation of the tornadic stage of the Goshen County, Wyoming, supercell of 5 June 2009 using EnKF assimilation of mobile radar data collected during VORTEX2

James Marquis, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson, P. M. Markowski, D. C. Dowell, J. M. Wurman, K. A. Kosiba, and P. Robinson

Manuscript (5.5 MB)

Handout (2.4 MB)

170

Mesoscale Data Assimilation and Verification of the Storm Environment on June 13, 2010 during VORTEX2

Therese E. Thompson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. Romine, C. Snyder, D. C. Dowell, L. J. Wicker, and X. Wang

171

EnKF Data Assimilation and Forecasts of the Goshen County, Wyoming, Supercell during VORTEX2

Timothy A. Supinie, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Jung and M. Xue

Session 12

Societal Factors in Severe Weather

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: John A. Knox, Univ. of Georgia

4:15 PM

12.1

Regional Variations in Vulnerability to Tornado Outbreaks in the Eastern United States

Margaret Mae Kovach, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Chapel Hill, NC; and C. E. Konrad, C. M. Fuhrmann, and J. McLeod

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

12.2

An Effective Means of Integrating Twitter-based Reports to the National Weather Service while Enhancing Public Severe Weather Awareness

Thomas Johnstone, NOAA/NWSFO Nashville, Old Hickory, TN; and T. Boucher

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

12.3

Emergency warning system: Factors influencing citizen decision-making

Stephen Guillot Jr., Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and J. Kenkre and P. Jarvis

12.4

Early Findings and Results from the Central Region Impact-Based Warnings Demonstration

Peter A. Browning, NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO; and M. Hudson, K. Runk, K. Harding, K. Galluppi, J. L. Losego, B. E. Montz, and K. J. Mulder

5:00 PM

12.4A

Analysis of Tornado Debris Trajectories During the 27 April 2011 Super Outbreak as Determined Using Social Media Data

John A. Knox, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and A. W. Black, J. Rackley, and V. Gensini

Recorded Presentation

Depart for Conference Dinner Event at the Parthenon (ticket included in full-week registration package)

Session 13

VORTEX2 Results I

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Robin L. Tanamachi, NOAA/NSSL

8:30 AM

13.1

Observations from VORTEX2: The intensification of the Goshen County, Wyoming tornado (05 June 2009)

Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Kosiba, P. M. Markowski, Y. P. Richardson, P. Robinson, and J. Marquis

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

13.2

Finescale Structure of the LaGrange, Wyoming Tornado during VORTEX2: GBVTD and Photogrammetric Analyses

Phillip Stauffer, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Wakimoto, W. C. Lee, N. T. Atkins, and J. Wurman

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.0 MB)

9:00 AM

13.3

Tornado maintenance and demise in the Goshen County, Wyoming supercell of 5 June 2009 intercepted by VORTEX2

Yvette P. Richardson, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. Markowski, J. N. Marquis, J. Wurman, K. A. Kosiba, P. Robinson, D. W. Burgess, and C. C. Weiss

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

13.4

An Assessment of Buoyancy and Baroclinity within Select VORTEX2 Storms

Christopher C. Weiss, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and D. C. Dowell, P. Skinner, and A. Reinhart

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.0 MB)

9:30 AM

13.5

Baroclinity and Mesocyclogenesis in a Simulation of the VORTEX2 18 May 2010 Dumas, Texas Supercell

David C. Dowell, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. C. Weiss, A. E. Reinhart, and P. Skinner

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

13.6

VORTEX2 Observations and Data Assimilation Experiments of the 18 May 2010 Dumas, Texas Supercell

Patrick S. Skinner, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss, L. J. Wicker, and C. K. Potvin

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (7.0 MB)

Coffee Break

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Session 14

VORTEX2 Results II

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: James N. Marquis, Pennsylvania State Univ.

10:30 AM

14.1

GBVTD-retrieved near-surface axisymmetric vortex structure in a tornado and tornado-like vortices observed by a W-band radar during VORTEX2

Robin L. Tanamachi, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, K. Orzel, S. J. Frasier, and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (9.7 MB)

10:45 AM

14.2

Multi-scale analysis of the 26 May 2010 supercell observed during VORTEX2

Michael A. Bowlan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff, D. P. Betten, C. L. Ziegler, G. D. Carrie, and K. J. Thiem

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

14.3

High-Resolution In-Situ Verification of Simulated Supercell Cold Pools

Anthony E. Reinhart, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss and D. C. Dowell

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

14.4

Cold pool forcing of the 9 June 2009 Greensburg, KS supercell during VORTEX2

Conrad L. Ziegler, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff, L. J. Wicker, D. W. Burgess, E. R. Mansell, C. M. Schwarz, P. M. Markowski, Y. P. Richardson, and C. C. Weiss

11:30 AM

14.5

Characterizing rain drop size distributions in supercell hook echoes: results from VORTEX2

Daniel T. Dawson II, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and G. H. Bryan, G. Romine, and K. Friedrich

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

14.6

Drop-size distributions in thunderstorms measured by optical disdrometers during VORTEX2

Katja Friedrich, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and E. A. Kalina, F. J. Masters, and C. Lopez

Recorded Presentation

Break for Lunch

Session 15

Evaluation of Model and Human Forecasts

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University

1:30 PM

15.1

Diagnosing sensitivities to microphysics parameterizations in convection-allowing models using object-based time-domain diagnostics

Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL; and J. S. Kain, T. L. Jensen, R. Bullock, M. Xue, and F. Kong

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

15.2

Synoptic Control of Heavy-Rain-Producing Convective Training Episodes

John M. Peters, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

15.3

An Investigation into the Short-Range Predictability of Convection Initiation: Model Verification and Case Study Analyses

Brock Burghardt, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. Evans and P. Roebber

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

15.4

Evaluating Dryline Position Errors in Convection-Allowing WRF Model Forecasts

Brice Evan Coffer, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. C. Maudlin, P. G. Veals, and A. J. Clark

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

15.5

The Australian National Thunderstorm Forecast Guidance System: Current Design, Verification and Future Plans

Harald Richter, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

2:45 PM

15.6

Evaluation of the Storm Prediction Center's Day 3 through Day 1 Convective Outlooks

Nathan M. Hitchens, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. E. Brooks

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Session 16

High-Resolution In-Situ and Dual-Polarization Radar Observations of Severe Storms

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Chair: Daniel T. Dawson II, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL

3:30 PM

16.1

High-Resolution Full-Scale Observations of Thunderstorm Outflow Winds

W. Scott Gunter, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

16.2

Mobile, phased-array, Doppler radar observations of tornadoes at X band

Michael M. French, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, I. PopStefanija, C. Baldi, and R. Bluth

Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM

16.3

Rapid-scan, polarimetric, Doppler-radar observations of an EF-5 tornado in Oklahoma on 24 May 2011

Howard Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. C. Snyder, J. B. Houser, and A. L. Pazmany

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

16.4

Integrated In Situ, DOW, and damage observations in tornadoes

Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman and P. Robinson

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.7 MB)

4:30 PM

16.5

Operational Use of Polarimetric Tornadic Debris Signatures

Thomas Johnstone, NOAA/NWSFO, Old Hickory, TN; and S. E. Nelson, L. Belanger, M. E. Anderson, K. B. Laws, B. Carcione, C. J. Schultz, and L. D. Carey

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

16.6

S-Band Polarimetric Analysis of the 23 May 2011 Oklahoma Record Hailstorm Using High-Resolution Observations during HailSTONE

Scott F. Blair, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and J. M. Laflin, J. W. Leighton, and D. R. Deroche

Recorded Presentation

Session

Concluding Remarks and Awards

Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Cochairs: Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL; Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL

The AMS 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms Adjourns

26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Sunday, 4 November 2012

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 4 November 2012

Monday, 5 November 2012

7:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 5 November 2012

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 5 November 2012

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 5 November 2012

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

2:55 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

3:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

4:15 PM-5:45 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

Tuesday, 6 November 2012

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

5:30 PM-5:35 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Wednesday, 7 November 2012

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

3:00 PM-4:15 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

4:15 PM-5:15 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

5:40 PM-5:45 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Thursday, 8 November 2012

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

5:00 PM-5:15 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

5:15 PM-5:20 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

Sunday, 4 November 2012

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 4 November 2012

Monday, 5 November 2012

7:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 5 November 2012

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 5 November 2012

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 5 November 2012

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

2:55 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

3:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

4:15 PM-5:45 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

Tuesday, 6 November 2012

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

5:30 PM-5:35 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Wednesday, 7 November 2012

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

3:00 PM-4:15 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

4:15 PM-5:15 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

5:40 PM-5:45 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Thursday, 8 November 2012

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012