26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Program Chairs: Pamela L. Heinselman , NOAA/NSSL ; Michael C. Coniglio , NOAA/NSSL

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Sunday, 4 November 2012

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 4 November 2012


Registration Desk Open

Monday, 5 November 2012

7:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012


Registration Desk Open

8:30 AM-8:45 AM: Monday, 5 November 2012


Session
Opening Remarks
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: Michael Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL; Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL

8:45 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 5 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 1
Severe Storm Processes I: Tornado Dynamics
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: David C. Lewellen, West Virginia Univ.
  8:45 AM
1.1
The Fluid Dynamics of Tornadoes
Richard Rotunno, NCAR, Boulder, CO
 
1.2
Numerical simulation of three-dimensional vortical interactions within an idealized tornado
Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. L. Büker

  9:30 AM
1.3
The effects of low-level stability and nonlinear vortex interactions on tornadogenesis
Marcus L. Büker, Western Illinois University, Macomb, IL; and G. J. Tripoli

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 5 November 2012


Coffee Break
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 2
Severe Storm Processes II: Supercells and Tornadoes
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: George H. Bryan, NCAR
  10:30 AM
2.1
Can a gust front tilt horizontal vortex lines to produce a tornado?
Robert Davies-Jones, Emeritus, National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK; and P. Markowski
  11:00 AM
2.3
Baroclinic and Barotropic Vorticity in Simulated Near-surface Mesocyclones
Johannes M. L. Dahl, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. D. Parker and L. J. Wicker
  11:15 AM
2.4
Toy model simulations of horizontal momentum surges in supercells
Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and J. M. L. Dahl
  11:45 AM
2.6

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012


Break for Lunch

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 3
New Techniques and Testbeds I
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Angela Lese, NOAA/NWSFO
  1:30 PM
3.1
Simulated NWS Tornado Warning Decisions Using Rapid-scan Radar Data
Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. LaDue, D. M. Kingfield, and R. Hoffman
  1:45 PM
3.2
An Evaluation of Tornado Intensity Using Velocity and Strength Attributes from the WSR-88D Mesocyclone Detection Algorithm
Darrel M. Kingfield, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. G. LaDue and K. L. Ortega
  2:00 PM
3.3
Improving tornado intensity estimates using operational Doppler weather radar
Mallie Toth, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp, K. A. Kosiba, and J. Wurman
  2:15 PM
3.4
The Experimental Warning Program's 2011 and 2012 Spring Experiments at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed
Gregory J. Stumpf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/MDL, Norman, OK; and T. M. Smith, A. Anderson, D. L. Andra Jr., K. M. Calhoun, J. Gao, G. S. Garfield, D. M. Kingfield, E. Mahoney, C. D. Payne, and C. W. Siewert
  2:30 PM
3.5
Realtime 3DVAR Analyses and Evaluation for use in Warning Decisions in the Hazardous Weather Testbed
Kristin Marie Calhoun, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and T. M. Smith, J. Gao, D. M. Kingfield, and C. Fu
  2:45 PM
3.6
The GOES-R Proving Ground: Demonstrating Future Products to Aid Severe Local Storm Forecasting
Steven J. Goodman, NOAA/NESDIS, Greenbelt, MD; and J. J. Gurka, T. J. Schmit, W. F. Feltz, J. R. Mecikalski, C. W. Siewert, K. M. Kuhlman, and G. T. Stano

2:55 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

3:00 PM-4:15 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012


Poster Session P1
Case Studies of Severe Storms I
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
 
1
Sensitivities of a squall line over central Europe in a convective-scale ensemble
Kirsty E. Hanley, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and D. J. Kirshbaum, N. Roberts, and G. Leoncini

 
3
Analysis of Surface Thermodynamic Characteristics within the Rear-Flank Downdraft of the Wichita, Kansas, Tornadic Supercell of 14 April 2012
Kyle Yaffe, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and A. Gordon and J. Frame
Manuscript (897.5 kB)

Handout (1.4 MB)

 
4
High resolution in situ wind and pressure measurements in winter tornadoes with LAWPS
Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and E. Sato, S. Onogi, S. Saito, H. Inoue, and W. Mashiko

 
5
Temporal and vertical evolution of landfalling tornadoes over the Japan Sea area
Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and H. Inoue, W. Mashiko, S. Hayashi, and K. Arai

 
6
Lightning Signatures of Long-lived Tornadic Supercells in the Southeastern U.S. on 27-28 April 2011
Stephen Strader, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and W. S. Ashley
Manuscript (522.1 kB)

Handout (1.7 MB)

 
7
An Overview of the 2 March 2012 Morning Tornadic Supercells across Northern Alabama
Anthony Lamont Bain, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and L. Carey, C. J. Schultz, M. Saari, A. Sherrer, and K. Knupp

 
8
A Meteorological Re-Analysis of the 9 April 1947 Higgins-Glazier-Woodward Tornado
Justyn D. Jackson, NOAA/NWS Amarillo, TX, Amarillo, TX; and B. Kendrick and T. Spencer

 
10
Role of the rear-flank-downdraft in the evolution of an occluding mesocyclone in a tornadic supercell
Kyle J. Thiem, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff, D. P. Betten, and G. D. Carrie

 
11
Kinematic analysis of a bow echo/tornadic supercell complex during the 17 June 2010 Minnesota tornado outbreak
Kyle S. Pennington, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff, D. P. Betten, G. D. Carrie, and C. M. Schwarz

 
12
Intensity and Structure Changes of Low-Level Tornadic Vortices during Landfall over the Japan Sea Area
Ryohei Kato, Alpha-denshi Co., Ltd. / MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Kusunoki, K. I. Arai, M. Nishihashi, K. Shimose, W. Mashiko, E. Sato, S. Saito, H. Y. Inoue, and H. Morishima

 
13
Study on the formation and evolution of “6.3”damage wind
Xiuming Wang, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
Manuscript (961.0 kB)

 
14
 
15
The May 26-27, 2010 Eastern New York and Western New England Backdoor Cold Front Severe Weather Event
Thomas Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and B. J. Frugis and N. A. Stuart
Manuscript (2.5 MB)

Handout (3.7 MB)

 
16
The June 1, 2011 Hail Monster Event across Eastern New York and Western New England
Thomas Wasula, NOAA/NWS, Albany, NY; and B. J. Frugis and N. A. Stuart

Handout (5.0 MB)

 
Ensemble-based Analysis of the May 2010 Extreme Rainfall in Tennessee and Kentucky . S. L. Lynch, Colorado State University and Texas A&M University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

 
Poster 18 is also being presented as paper 8B.3A


Poster Session P2
New Techniques and Testbeds I
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
 
20
Diagnosis of Conditional Maximum Tornado Damage Probabilities
Bryan T. Smith, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. L. Thompson, H. E. Brooks, A. R. Dean, and K. L. Elmore
Manuscript (4.0 MB)

 
21
An Introduction to the Storm Monitor and Analysis Program
David G. Hotz, NOAA/NWS, Morristown, TN; and J. S. Schaumann and S. F. Oneill
Manuscript (278.5 kB)

 
26
Environmental parameters for forecasting tornado outbreak on the outer rain band of typhoon
Kouhei Horiba, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan; and K. Sassa

Handout (3.3 MB)

 
27
Flash Flood Warning by Basin?
Robert S. Davis, NOAA/NWS, Pittsburgh, PA

 
28
Linking satellite based lightning initiation nowcasts with WRF lightning threat forecasts to produce a combined nowcast of lightning onset and extent
Matthew D. W. Saari, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski and E. W. McCaul Jr.

 
29
Using UW-Cloud Top Cooling Rates in Convective Storm Warning Experiments
Wayne F. Feltz, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Sieglaff and L. Cronce


Poster Session P3
Novel Observations of Severe Storms
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
 
30
Comparison of Disdrometer and X-band Mobile Radar Observations in Convective Precipitation
Evan A. Kalina, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and K. Friedrich, S. M. Ellis, and D. W. Burgess

Handout (7.5 MB)

 
31
Rapid-Scan Observations of Tornadogenesis, Intesification, and Decay from a Mobile Radar
Jana B. Houser, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein and J. C. Snyder

 
32
Integration of the total lightning jump algorithm into current operational warning environment conceptual models
Christopher J. Schultz, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and L. D. Carey, E. V. Schultz, G. T. Stano, P. N. Gatlin, D. Kozlowski, and S. Goodman

 
33
An Inter-comparison of S-band and C-band Polarimetric Radar Signatures of Large Hail and Tornado Debris on 2 March 2012
Lawrence D. Carey, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and C. J. Schultz, A. L. Bain, A. Sherrer, K. R. Knupp, B. Carcione, C. C. Crowe, C. B. Darden, and M. E. Anderson

 
34
Measurements of DSD with a dense network of disdrometers associated with convective initiation and evolution
Sadao Saito, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and C. Fujiwara, K. Kusunoki, and E. Sato

Handout (220.4 kB)

 
35
A Comparison of Three Significant Hail Producing Supercells Sampled during HailSTONE Using S-Band Dual-Polarization Radar
Scott F. Blair, NOAA/NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO; and J. M. Laflin, D. T. Cooper, J. I. Pullin, and S. M. Currens

 
38
Early results of operational use of total lightning data from the West Texas Lightning Mapping Array
Steven R. Cobb, NOAA/NWSFO, Lubbock, TX; and J. Jordan, E. C. Bruning, and J. Daniel

 
39
Radar morphology of tornadic supercells and other convective systems sampled over Texas and Oklahoma during the 2012 Deep Convective Cloud Chemistry (DC3) experiment
Michael I. Biggerstaff, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and E. R. Mansell, D. P. Betten, D. R. MacGorman, D. W. Burgess, C. L. Ziegler, E. C. Bruning, and G. D. Carrie

 
40
Three-dimensional structure of misocyclone associated with thunderstorm observed by Ku-band FM-Chirp fast scanning radar
Chusei Fujiwara, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and E. Sato, S. Saito, and K. Kusunoki
Manuscript (417.4 kB)

 
41
Particle Distributions from the Balloon-Born Particle Imager flown in the DC3 Campaign
Sean Waugh, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and W. D. Rust, D. R. MacGorman, S. E. Fredrickson, and D. Kennedy

 
43
Analyses of the low-level winds in two tornadoes that crossed the Hong Kong International Airport
Paul Robinson, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and P. W. Chan, J. Wurman, C. M. Shun, and K. A. Kosiba

 
44
Nowcasting Wet Downbursts using Polarimetric Radar
Mariana Scott, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and L. Carey, E. V. Schultz, and W. P. Roeder

 
45
Recent Afternoon-Evening Transition (AET) and Nocturnal Convective Initiation Events Studied as Part of the UAHuntsville ABIDE Field Project
Stephanie Mullins, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp, T. A. Coleman, T. A. Murphy, A. Sherrer, and R. A. Wade

 
46
Microphysics of a tornado-producing supercell observed with a dual-polarization C-band radar
Jenni Rauhala, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and K. Solin and D. M. Schultz

 
47
Observations of Hailstone Characteristics Utilizing a New Instrumentation Platform
Tanya M. Brown, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, Richburg, SC; and I. M. Giammanco and D. S. Robinett
Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Handout (3.2 MB)

 
48
Multi-sensor observations and analysis of the 14-15 June, 2012 heat bursts in the Texas Panhandle
Mark R. Conder, NOAA/NWSFO, Lubbock, TX; and G. D. Skwira, S. R. Cobb, E. C. Bruning, and J. Daniel

 
49
An Analysis of Total Lightning Over North Alabama During the 2 March 2012 Tornado Event
Brian Carcione, NOAA/NWS, Huntsville, AL; and K. D. White and G. T. Stano
Manuscript (449.7 kB)

Handout (1.5 MB)

 
50
Near-Surface Thunderstorm Outflow Characteristics Observed by the TTUKa Mobile Doppler Radars
Patrick S. Skinner, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss, W. S. Gunter, and J. L. Schroeder
Manuscript (8.8 MB)

Handout (3.5 MB)

 
51
Potential Missions for the SPA-10
Andrew G. Detwiler, South Dakota School of Mines & Technology, Rapid City, SD; and H. H. Jonsson

Handout (1.2 MB)

 
52
Observations of severe convective storms with operational dual-polarization WSR-88D radars
Matthew R. Kumjian, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and C. D. Payne and P. T. Schlatter

 
53
Storm environments sampled in Texas and Oklahoma during the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment
Conrad L. Ziegler, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK ; and D. R. MacGorman, E. C. Bruning, M. Coniglio, M. I. Biggerstaff, E. R. Mansell, D. P. Betten, D. W. Burgess, and G. D. Carrie

 
54
The Oklahoma-Texas Venue of the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) Experiment
Donald R. MacGorman, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. Ziegler, E. C. Bruning, M. I. Biggerstaff, E. R. Mansell, D. W. Burgess, S. Waugh, D. P. Betten, D. Kennedy, S. E. Fredrickson, G. Carrie, P. L. Heinselman, and T. J. Schuur

 
55
MPAR Wind Shear Experiment
Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Cho, B. L. Cheong, M. Weadon, M. Emanual, T. Crum, and P. Biron
Manuscript (522.7 kB)

 
56
Strongly Negative ZDR Signatures in Low Levels of Deep Convection
Michael A. Magsig, NOAA/NWS/WDTB, Norman, OK; and J. G. LaDue, C. D. Payne, and L. R. Lemon


Poster Session P4
Severe Storm Climatology
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
 
57
Tornadoes in Turkey
Abdullah Kahraman, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey

 
58
The Role of Low-Level Thermal Instability on Tornado Intensity
Nicholas L. Hampshire, NOAA/NWS, Fort Worth, TX; and R. M. Mosier, D. E. Cavanaugh, and T. M. Ryan
Manuscript (463.7 kB)

Handout (267.9 kB)

 
59
Using Tornado, Lightning, and Population Data to Identify Tornado Prone Areas in Canada
David M. L. Sills, EC, Toronto, ON, Canada; and V. Cheng, B. Rousseau, P. J. McCarthy, J. Waller, J. Klaassen, and H. Auld
Manuscript (3.2 MB)

 
60
An examination of tornado environments, events, and impacts from 2003-2012
Andrew R. Dean, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and R. Schneider
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (1.1 MB)

 
61
Towards a Tornado Power Climatology for Tennessee
Robert Mark Simpson, University of Tennessee, Martin, TN

 
62
Examination of WSR-88D VWP Data in Proximity to Strong Tornadoes
Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. A. Hart
Manuscript (330.4 kB)

 
63
Application of a self-organizing map statistical technique to a RUC supercell proximity sounding database
Anders A. Jensen, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and C. J. Nowotarski
Manuscript (7.6 MB)

 
64
A Climatology of Great Plains Supercells from 2005-2007
Cody D. Oppermann, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston
Manuscript (1.7 MB)

 
66
Identification of Ideal Smoothing Radii and Appropriate Seasonal Applications for Tornado Climatology Research
P. Grady Dixon, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. E. Mercer, K. Grala, and W. H. Cooke

 
67
Climatology of Tornado Outbreaks in the Eastern United States
Christopher M. Fuhrmann, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Chapel Hill, NC; and C. E. Konrad, J. McLeod, M. M. Kovach, and W. Schmitz

 
68
Environmental and Observational Characteristics Associated with Tornadic QLCSs
Matthew E. Anderson, NOAA/NWSFO, Calera, AL; and K. B. Laws, B. M. Williams, and C. J. Rohrbach

 
69
An update from the Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment (SHAVE)
Kiel L. Ortega, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Handout (1.6 MB)

 
70
Significant hail producing storms in Finland
Jari-Petteri Tuovinen, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; and J. Rauhala
Manuscript (222.3 kB)

 
71
Statistical Analysis of Summer MCS in Middle Eastern China
yun chen, National Meteorological Center, CMA, Beijing, China; and B. zeng

 
72
Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Stationary Mesoscale Convective Systems over Complex Terrain in Japan
Takashi Unuma, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan; and T. Takemi

 
73
Climatology of Null Severe Outbreak Events
Alyssa V. Bates, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. E. Mercer

 
74
The Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms (MYRORSS) Project
Kiel L. Ortega, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK ; and T. M. Smith, J. Zhang, C. Langston, Y. Qi, S. E. Stevens, and J. E. Tate

Handout (2.5 MB)

 
75
Appalachian lee troughs and their association with severe convective storms
Daniel B. Thompson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, T. A. Wasula, and M. R. Kramar

 
76
National Weather Service Contributions to the CSTAR High Shear/Low CAPE Severe Convective Storms Project
Justin D. Lane, NOAA/NWSFO, Greer, SC; and H. Coleman, P. D. Moore, J. Blaes, and T. D. Palmer

 
77
Identifying and Ranking Multi-Day Severe Weather Outbreaks
Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and C. A. Doswell III
Manuscript (1.0 MB)

Handout (2.8 MB)

 
79
A radar-based climatology of tropopause folds and deep convection
Bogdan Antonescu, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and G. Vaughan and D. M. Schultz

 
80
Observation study during the pre-monsoon season over northeast Bangladesh
Masashi Kiguchi, University of Tokyo, Toyko, Japan; and F. Murata, T. Terao, T. Hayashi, and T. Oki

 
81
STEPCLIM: Severe Thunderstorm Evaluation and Predictability in Climate Models
Georg Pistotnik, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and P. Groenemeijer, K. Riemann-Campe, and T. Kühne
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (938.8 kB)

 
83
Impact of Choices made when Creating Composite Soundings: Feature versus Height Averaging and Moisture Variable Considerations
Alexander R. Zarnowski, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and M. S. Gilmore

Handout (2.6 MB)


Poster Session P5
Severe Storm Processes I
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
 
84
Slope of Vorticity Lines Derived from Numerical Models as a Tornado Predictor
Doug Dokken, University of St. Thomas, St. Paul, MN; and K. Scholz, M. Shvartsman, and P. Belik

 
85
The strucuture of a multiple-vortex type tornado realized in a supercell simulator
Koji Sassa, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan; and I. Hamada

Handout (8.3 MB)

 
86
Controllable outflow generator for the experiment of a non-supercell tornado
Yuta Minekawa, Kochi University, Kochi, Japan; and K. Sassa
Manuscript (2.1 MB)

 
87A
 
Circulation Budgets of Supercell-spawned Tornado-like Vortices
Justin K. Weber, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and M. S. Gilmore and J. Naylor

4:15 PM-5:45 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 4A
New Techniques and Testbeds II
Location: Symphony I (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Andrew R. Dean, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC
  4:15 PM
Profiling the Local Tornadic Environment
Steven Koch, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and M. Nelson, R. Ware, and S. Albers
  4:30 PM
Use of the NAM Model 1.33 km Movable Fire Weather Nest for Severe Weather Applications during the Spring of 2012
Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, A. R. Dean, E. Rogers, and G. J. DiMego
  4:45 PM
Assessment and prediction of seasonal tornado activity: A status update and application to the 2011 and 2012 warm seasons
Robert J. Trapp, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and M. E. Baldwin and H. E. Brooks

  5:00 PM
A Method for Calibrating Deterministic Forecasts of Rare Events
Patrick T. Marsh, NOAA/NSSL & OU/CIMMS/SoM, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, V. Lakshmanan, and A. J. Clark
  5:15 PM
Associating Magnitudes of Severe Weather Diagnostic Variables with Severe Event Probabilities
Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and M. W. Stanford, M. B. Richman, L. Leslie, C. A. Doswell III, and A. E. Mercer
  5:30 PM
A Tropical Cyclone Tornado Parameter (TCTP) for use in situational awareness forecasting
Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and B. M. Hays and M. C. Link
Recording files available
Session 4B
Severe Storm Processes III: Environmental Impacts on Tornadoes and Deep Convection
Location: Symphony II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State University
  5:00 PM
  5:30 PM
What is RKW Theory?
George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO

8:00 PM-10:00 PM: Monday, 5 November 2012


Storm Video Night
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Tuesday, 6 November 2012

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 5
Case Studies I: 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Jared L. Guyer, NOAA/NWS/SPC
  9:00 AM
5.2
The Devastating 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak: Initial Scientific Assessment
Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and T. Murphy, S. Mullins, R. Wade, and T. Coleman
  9:15 AM
5.3
Damage survey of the Tuscaloosa - Birmingham, AL tornado
Jim Stefkovich, NOAA/NWS, Calera, AL; and T. P. Marshall, J. De Block, J. G. LaDue, and C. Karsten
  9:30 AM
5.4
  9:45 AM
5.5
Observations of a Thermal Boundary and its Interaction with the 27 April 2011 EF-5 Hackleburg Tornado
Adam Sherrer, Severe Weather Institute and Radar and Lightning Laboratories (SWIRLL) / University of Alabama Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and R. A. Wade, T. A. Murphy, S. Mullins, T. Coleman, D. Phillips, and K. Knupp

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012


Coffee Break
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 6
Case Studies II: 2011 and 2012 High-Impact Events
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Roger Edwards, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC
  10:30 AM
6.1
Damage Survey of the Joplin Tornado
Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX; and W. Davis and S. Runnels
  11:00 AM
6.3
A comparison of high resolution tornado surveys to Doppler radar observed mesocyclone parameters: 2011-2012 case studies
James G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS/WDB, Norman, OK; and K. L. Ortega, B. R. Smith, G. J. Stumpf, and D. M. Kingfield
  11:45 AM
6.6

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012


Break for Lunch

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 7
Advancements in Numerical Weather Prediction I
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA
  1:30 PM
7.1
Progress and Challenges with Warn-on-Forecast
David J. Stensrud, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker, E. R. Mansell, J. Gao, M. C. Coniglio, H. E. Brooks, M. Xue, D. T. Dawson II, N. Yussouf, D. M. Wheatley, T. A. Jones, R. M. Belobraydich, T. M. Smith, K. M. Kuhlman, A. Clark, and D. Dowell
  1:45 PM
7.2
3DVAR analysis and forecast experiments for the 27 April 2011 tornado outbreak
Jidong Gao, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Tang, C. Fu, D. C. Dowell, and D. J. Stensrud
  2:15 PM
7.4
Realtime mesoscale analysis with WRF-DART for explicit convective forecasts
Glen Romine, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Schwartz, M. Weisman, C. Snyder, and J. Anderson
  2:30 PM
7.5
Improvements in the analysis of the convective storm environment for the 2nd generation Rapid Refresh: impact on RAP and nested HRRR forecasts
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, E. P. James, M. Hu, D. C. Dowell, S. G. Benjamin, P. Hofmann, and H. Lin
  2:45 PM
7.6
Recent and Future Advancements in Convective-Scale Storm Prediction with the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forecast System
Curtis Alexander, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, S. S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, T. G. Smirnova, M. Hu, P. Hofmann, E. P. James, J. M. Brown, and B. D. Jamison

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012


Coffee Break
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 8A
Advancements in Numerical Weather Prediction II
Location: Symphony I (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL
  3:30 PM
Ensemble Kalman filter analyses and forecasts of a severe mesoscale convective system observed during BAMEX
Dustan M. Wheatley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, M. Coniglio, and D. J. Stensrud
  4:15 PM
Tests of a cycled EnKF data assimilation and forecasts for the 10 May 2010 tornado outbreak in the central US domain
Youngsun Jung, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, Y. Wang, Y. Pan, and K. Zhu
  4:30 PM
Comparisons of Storm-Scale Doppler Radar Data Assimilation using LETKF and EnSRF
Therese E. Thompson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker and X. Wang
  4:45 PM
Recording files available
Session 8B
Case Studies III: Severe Mesoscale Convective Systems
Location: Symphony II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Kelly Lombardo, N/A
  3:30 PM
  4:00 PM
Ensemble-based Analysis of the May 2010 Extreme Rainfall in Tennessee and Kentucky
Samantha L. Lynch, Colorado State University and Texas A&M University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher
  4:15 PM
Subtropical Continental Anticyclones, the “Ring-of-Fire,” and Intense Derechos
Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. T. Guastini and R. A. Lazear
  4:30 PM
  4:45 PM

5:30 PM-5:35 PM: Tuesday, 6 November 2012


26th Severe Local Storms Conference Women's Dinner to be held at 1808 Grille located at 1808 West End Avenue. Please RSVP to Yvette Richardson (yrichardson@psu.edu) by October 31 so an accurate reservation number may be provided in advance.

Wednesday, 7 November 2012

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 9
Severe Weather Climatology I
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Casey Letkewicz, US Air Force Academy
  9:00 AM
9.3
A Climatology of Bow Echo Mesovortices
George Limpert, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. Houston
  9:30 AM
9.5
Spatial distributions of tornadic near-storm environments by convective mode
Richard L. Thompson, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and B. T. Smith, A. R. Dean, and P. T. Marsh
  9:45 AM
9.6
Nonsupercell Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes: Documentation, Classification and Uncertainties
Roger Edwards, SPC/NWS/NOAA, Norman, OK; and A. R. Dean, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012


Coffee Break
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 10
New Techniques and Testbeds III
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Bryan T. Smith, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC
  10:30 AM
An Overview of the 2012 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
John S. Kain, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., A. R. Dean, P. T. Marsh, C. J. Melick, S. D. Miller Jr., R. Sobash, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, V. Lakshmanan, D. A. Imy, and S. R. Dembek
  10:45 AM
  11:00 AM
Assessment of timing and coverage of convection during the 2012 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
Stuart D. Miller Jr., CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, P. T. Marsh, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, V. Lakshmanan, J. Correia Jr., D. A. Imy, S. R. Dembek, I. L. Jirak, S. J. Weiss, A. R. Dean, C. J. Melick, R. Sobash, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K. W. Thomas
  11:15 AM
Object-based data mining in forecasting and verification: Adventures in the 2011-2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Experimental Forecast Program (EFP)
James Correia Jr., CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma/SPC, Norman, OK; and P. T. Marsh, S. J. Weiss, A. Kaulfus, and S. M. Stough
  11:30 AM
Experimental forecasting of severe storms in Europe: synthesis of five weeks of ESSL Testbed operations
Pieter Groenemeijer, European Severe Storms Laboratory, Wessling, Germany; and A. M. Holzer, G. Pistotnik, and K. Riemann-Campe
  11:45 AM
Developments in High Resolution Forecasting of Severe Convection at the Met Office
Humphrey W. Lean, Met Office, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and E. Carter, C. Halliwell, N. Roberts, and G. Leoncini

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012


Break for Lunch

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 11A
Severe Storm Climatology II
Location: Symphony I (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Jeff Trapp, Purdue University
  1:45 PM
Trends in Severe Thunderstorms from High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling and an Artificial Neural Network
Eric D. Robinson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp and M. E. Baldwin
  2:15 PM
Analysis of Central U.S. Deep Convection Initiation Environments
Noah A. Lock, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. L. Houston
  2:30 PM
Toward an objective climatology of extreme rainfall in the United States
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. N. Stevenson
  2:45 PM
Investigation of Supercells in China :Environmental and Storm Characteristics
Xiaoding Yu Sr., China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing, China; and X. Wang, H. Fei, and J. Zhao
Manuscript (1012.0 kB)

Handout (660.5 kB)

Recording files available
Session 11B
Severe Storm Processes IV: Supercell Morphology
Location: Symphony II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Yvette P. Richardson, Pennsylvania State University
  1:30 PM
Polarimetric radar observations and microphysical model simulations of melting hail
Matthew R. Kumjian, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO; and K. L. Ortega, A. V. Ryzhkov, J. Krause, and S. M. Ganson
  1:45 PM
Simulating polarimetric signatures associated with supercells in different kinematic environments
Jeffrey C. Snyder, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein and Y. Jung
  2:00 PM
Observations of Low-Level Mesocyclone Redevelopment Using a Trajectory Mapping Technique
Daniel P. Betten, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK ; and M. I. Biggerstaff
  2:15 PM
The influence of horizontal convective rolls on the morphology of low-level rotation in idealized simulations of supercell thunderstorms
Christopher J. Nowotarski, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. M. Markowski, Y. P. Richardson, and G. H. Bryan
  2:30 PM
An assessment of internal and external forcings in supercell interactions and their impact on storm morphology
Ann Syrowski, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and B. F. Jewett and R. B. Wilhelmson
  2:45 PM
Mergers in supercell environments. Part I: Conceptual models of mechanisms governing merger outcomes
Ryan M. Hastings, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson, P. Markowski, J. Wurman, and C. C. Weiss

3:00 PM-4:15 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

Poster Session P6
Advancements in Numerical Weather Prediction
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
 
89
Dual-Doppler vs. EnKF wind analyses of the 29-30 May 2004 Geary, Oklahoma, supercell
Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker, M. I. Biggerstaff, D. P. Betten, and A. M. Shapiro
Manuscript (6.6 MB)

Handout (2.9 MB)

 
90
The Ensemble Kalman Filter Analyses and Forecasts of the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell Storm using Single and Double Moment Microphysics Schemes
Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL, Norman, OK; and E. R. Mansell, L. J. Wicker, D. M. Wheatley, and D. J. Stensrud

 
91
Evaluation of the Improved Humidity Analysis in Multiscale Data Assimilation on Windsor Tornado
Hongli Jiang, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and Y. Xie, S. Albers, D. L. Birkenheuer, Z. Toth, H. Yuan, S. Koch, and R. Ware

 
92
Impact of Doppler Weather Radar Data Assimilation on the Predictions of Mesoscale Convective Systems
Mohan Kumar Das, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh; and S. K. Debsarma
Manuscript (729.3 kB)

Handout (1.9 MB)

 
Evaluating the Contribution of NASA Remotely-Sensed Data Sets on a Convection-Allowing Forecast Model
Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. L. Case and A. L. Molthan

 
93
Assimilation of GLD-360 lightning data and SATCAST convective initiation data into the RAP and RUC models and lightning forecast guidance from nested HRRR runs
Tracy Lorraine Smith, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, C. Alexander, M. Hu, H. Lin, E. W. McCaul Jr., and J. R. Mecikalski

 
94
Using Cloud Liquid Water Path to Improve Severe Weather Forecasts with WRF-DART
Thomas A. Jones, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda

 
95
The Effects of Digital Filter Initialization on Convection Initiation in a WRF-DART Mesoscale Ensemble Analysis
Anthony E. Reinhart, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. Snyder, G. Romine, and C. C. Weiss

 
96
 
97
 
98
Real-time Radar Radial Velocity Assimilation Experiments in a Pre-operational Framework in North China
Min Chen, Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing, China; and M. X. Chen, S. Y. Fan, H. Wang, and J. Sun


Poster Session P7
Case Studies of Severe Storms II
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
 
100
A summary of radar and in situ near-ground observations within winter tornadic vortices during the Shonai Area Railroad Weather Project in Japan
Kenichi Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and H. Inoue, W. Mashiko, S. Hayashi, M. Nishihashi, K. Shimose, K. Arai, and H. Morishima

 
101
Performance of Residences and Shelters in the Oklahoma Tornadoes
James G. LaDue, NOAA/NWS/WDTB, Norman, OK; and T. P. Marshall, K. L. Ortega, and G. J. Stumpf
Manuscript (1.7 MB)

 
102
Mobile radar observations and damage assessment of the 24 May 2011, Canton Lake, OK tornado
Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman, P. Robinson, C. Schwarz, D. W. Burgess, E. R. Mansell, and D. T. Dawson II
Manuscript (2.1 MB)

Handout (9.6 MB)

 
103
Evidence of upscale feedback from recent tornadic storms
Joseph M. Woznicki, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and R. J. Trapp

 
104
A Case Study of a Rare Long-Track EF-3 Tornado in Eastern Kentucky
Ryan J. Difani, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY; and T. R. Binkley, A. C. Dockery, J. L. Thomas, Q. A. Walker, and J. D. Durkee

 
106
Supplemental Damage Indicators Discovered in Recent Strong Tornadoes
Christopher D. Karstens, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., P. Sarkar, and T. P. Marshall

 
107
Observations and Analysis of Atmospheric Waves During the Historic April 27, 2011 Tornado Outbreak
Todd A. Murphy, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and T. A. Coleman and K. R. Knupp

Handout (3.3 MB)

 
108
The 17 January 2012 Tornado Outbreak Across the Ohio Valley
Linda Gilbert, NOAA/NWS, Louisville, KY; and J. Denman and M. J. Paddock

 
109
The 2 March 2012 Tornado Outbreak: Where Tornadoes Did Not Form Across the Ohio Valley
Michael J. Paddock, NOAA/NWS, Louisville, KY; and A. Lese

 
110
A High-Elevation Tornado over Northern Arizona
David O. Blanchard, NOAA/NWS, Flagstaff, AZ
Manuscript (1.3 MB)

 
112
Multiple Doppler analysis of the Tsukuba tornado on May 6, 2012 - A supercell tornado in convergence line
Eiichi Sato, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and H. Yamauchi, W. Mashiko, Y. Shoji, and O. Suzuki
Manuscript (1.9 MB)

 
113
Ensemble Forecast Products for the 14 April 2012 Severe Weather Event in Nebraska
James R. McCormick, UCAR, Offutt AFB, NE; and E. Kuchera and S. Rentschler
Manuscript (1019.1 kB)

 
114
Extreme damage incidents in the 27 April 2011 tornado superoutbreak
Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL ; and K. Knupp, C. B. Darden, and K. B. Laws

Handout (2.2 MB)

 
115
Reconstruction of near-surface tornado wind fields from forest damage patterns in complex terrain
Christopher M. Godfrey, University of North Carolina, Asheville, NC; and C. J. Peterson

Handout (9.5 MB)

 
116
13 May 2010 Severe Bow Echo Event Over Northeast Oklahoma Part 1: Synoptic and Mesoscale Environment
J. Brad McGavock, NOAA, Tulsa, OK; and K. Hatfield, S. A. Amburn, R. W. Przybylinski, and N. Atkins
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

Handout (1.5 MB)

 
117
13 May 2010 Severe Bow Eecho Event Over Northeast Oklahoma. Part 2: Characteristics of Reflectivity Structures and Mesovortex Evolution
Ron W. Przybylinski, NOAA/NWSFO, Saint Charles, MO; and J. B. McGavock, K. Hatfield, S. A. Amburn, and N. T. Atkins

Handout (1.0 MB)

 
118
Local Severe Storms in Bangladesh and adjoining Indian Territory: A Case Study of 13th-15th April, 2010
Fatima Akter, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; and H. Ishikawa


Poster Session P8
Evaluation of Model and Human Forecasts
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
 
119
Tornado Warning Verification by Storm Environment
Yvette P. Richardson, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. R. Dean and A. Anderson-Frey
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

 
120
Relationships between Convective Mode and Tornado Warning Probability of Detection and Lead Time
Steven E. Nelson, NOAA/NWSFO, Peachtree City, GA; and J. A. Brotzge, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith

 
123
Usefulness of Storm-Scale Model Guidance in SPC Fire Weather Events with Dry Thunder
Benjamin S. Herzog, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. J. Melick, J. S. Grams, I. L. Jirak, A. R. Dean, and S. J. Weiss
Manuscript (345.5 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

 
124
Probabilistic forecasts of severe convection with a WRF-DART analysis and convection-permitting forecast system
Logan C. Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and G. Romine, S. Tessendorf, and C. S. Schwartz

 
125
Statistical analyses of convective updraughts using radar scans and model data
Kirsty E. Hanley, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and B. Plant, T. Stein, R. Hogan, J. Nicol, E. Carter, and H. W. Lean

 
126
Tracking the three-dimensional evolution of convective storms in radar observations and high-resolution models
Thorwald Hendrik Matthias Stein, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and K. E. Hanley, R. Hogan, R. S. Plant, E. Carter, H. W. Lean, J. Nicol, C. Halliwell, and A. Macallan

 
130
Evaluation of different ensemble configurations for the analysis and prediction of high-impact mesoscale convective systems
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Clark

 
131
Skill of 1- and 4-km WRF-ARW Forecasts of Storm Mode and Motion
Michael VandenBerg, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Coniglio and A. J. Clark


Poster Session P9
New Techniques and Testbeds II
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
 
133
Utilizing Divergence Tendency in Forecasting Convective Initiation
Kelton T. Halbert, Lipscomb University, Nashville, TN; and W. G. Blumberg

Handout (44.5 MB)

 
134
Objective Diagnosis of Thunderstorms and Convection Initiation Using Convection-Allowing Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Patrick T. Marsh, NOAA/NSSL & OU/CIMMS/SoM, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, A. J. Clark, V. Lakshmanan, G. Thompson, S. R. Dembek, S. D. Miller Jr., M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, and M. Xue

 
135
Preliminary assessment of timing differences between convective initiation and severe initiation
Stuart D. Miller Jr., CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Correia Jr.
Manuscript (665.9 kB)

Handout (828.6 kB)

 
136
Evaluation of Experimental Atmospheric Profiling Systems and WRF-ARW PBL schemes during the 2012 NOAA/HWT Experimental Forecast Program
Michael Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK ; and M. W. Douglas, D. D. Turner, and M. Fuentes

Handout (17.4 MB)

 
137
 
138
CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting System for the NOAA HWT 2012 Spring Experiment: Impact of IC/LBC Perturbations
Fanyou Kong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, A. J. Clark, J. S. Kain, S. J. Weiss, I. L. Jirak, M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., and P. Marsh

 
139
The WRF Lightning Forecast Algorithm: Recent updates and results from convective ensemble forecasts
Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL ; and J. L. Case, S. R. Dembek, F. Kong, S. J. Goodman, and S. J. Weiss

Handout (90.0 kB)

 
141
Probabilistic Techniques in the Diagnosis of Severe Weather Outbreaks
Chad M. Shafer, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and A. E. Mercer, C. A. Doswell III, L. Leslie, and M. B. Richman

Handout (997.2 kB)


Poster Session P10
Severe Storm Processes II
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
 
Near-Surface Vorticity Generation in Tornadic and Non-Tornadic Simulated Supercells
Jason Naylor, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND ; and M. S. Gilmore

 
143
Mergers in supercell environments. Part II: Tornadogenesis potential during merger as evaluated by changes in the near-surface low-level mesocyclone
Ryan M. Hastings, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson and P. Markowski
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

 
144
A numerical investigation of the dependence of the circulation of low-level mesocyclones on the characteristics of the outflow and the environment
Casey Webster, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. Markowski and Y. Richardson

 
145
Effects of Mid-Tropospheric Dry Air on Evolution of Supercell Storms
Takumi Honda, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan; and T. Kawano and R. Kawamura
Manuscript (312.5 kB)

 
147
Numerical investigation of the bent hodograph shape and its effects on storm structure and evolution
Amanda K. Kis, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK OK; and J. M. Straka

 
148
Idealized Simulations of Mergers Between Squall Lines and Isolated Supercell Thunderstorms
Adam J. French, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and M. D. Parker
Manuscript (3.0 MB)

Handout (13.4 MB)

 
149
The Influences of Low-Level Stability on Bow Echo Mesovortex Genesis
George Limpert, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE; and A. Houston


Poster Session P11
Societal Factors in Severe Weather
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
 
150
 
152
The 3 April 2012 tornado outbreak: An Analysis of the North Texas Integrated Warning Team
Dennis E. Cavanaugh, NOAA/NWSFO, Fort Worth, TX; and M. Huffman, M. Fox, J. E. Trainor, B. Phillips, C. League, C. Little, and R. Miller
Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (1.7 MB)

 
153: Analysis of Tornado Debris Trajectories During the 27 April 2011 Super Outbreak as Determined Using Social Media Data . J. A. Knox, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; A. W. Black, J. Rackley, and V. Gensini

 
Poster 153 is also being presented as Paper 12.4A.

 
154
Using Social Media for Scientific Research: Experiences from a Tornado Debris Research Project
John A. Knox, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and A. W. Black, J. Rackley, and V. Gensini

 
155
Modeling and Quantification of Severe Thunderstorm Risk in Australia from Re/Insurance Perspectives
Jianming Yin, Tokio Marine Technologies LLC, Duluth, GA; and B. Yu
Manuscript (532.2 kB)

Handout (532.2 kB)

 
156
Mapping Social Vulnerability to Landfalling Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin
Dereka Carroll, NCAR, Dallas, TX; and J. M. Done, D. Ahijevych, and G. Villarini

 
157
Weather Ready Nation: A Vital Conversation—Themes and Actions from the December 2011 Meeting in Norman Oklahoma
John T. Ferree, NOAA/NWS Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Norman, OK; and E. Jacks


Poster Session P12
VORTEX2 Results
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
 
159
Composite supercell environments from VORTEX2
Matthew D. Parker, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and B. Coffer and C. MacIntosh

 
160
The Tornadogenesis Phase of a VORTEX2 Supercell on June 7, 2010
Elizabeth A. Davidson, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. W. Burgess
Manuscript (1.7 MB)

 
161
Effect of cell merger and environmental boundaries on the evolution of a supercell thunderstorm observed during VORTEX2
Curtis J. Riganti, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff, C. M. Schwarz, D. P. Betten, G. D. Carrie, and K. J. Thiem

 
162
Single and Dual-Doppler Radar Observations of a Nontornadic Supercell Thunderstorm on 6 June 2010
Zachary B. Wienhoff, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. Frame
Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Handout (1.8 MB)

 
163
Single and Dual-Doppler Radar Observations of a Left-Moving Supercell Thunderstorm on 26 May 2009
Mark D. Savin, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and J. W. Frame

Handout (935.8 kB)

 
164
Preliminary analysis of the 10 June 2010 supercells intercepted by VORTEX2 near Last Chance, Colorado
Alicia M. Klees, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson and P. M. Markowski
Manuscript (1.3 MB)

 
165
An Examination of the Structure of Two Tornadoes Observed by Texas Tech Ka-band Radars During VORTEX2
Ryan S. Metzger, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss and A. E. Reinhart
Manuscript (913.0 kB)

 
166
The 12 May 2010 tornadic supercell intercepted by VORTEX2 near Clinton, Oklahoma
Timothy P. Hatlee, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. Richardson and P. Markowski

 
167
Idealized Simulations of Supercell Demise Based on VORTEX2 Observations
Casey E. Letkewicz, United States Air Force Academy, USAF Academy, CO; and M. D. Parker

Handout (4.6 MB)

 
168
EnKF assimilation of storm-scale, mobile Doppler radar data into high-resolution analyses of a weakly tornadic supercell
Robin L. Tanamachi, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, Y. Jung, K. A. Brewster, and M. I. Biggerstaff
Manuscript (9.7 MB)

 
169
An investigation of the tornadic stage of the Goshen County, Wyoming, supercell of 5 June 2009 using EnKF assimilation of mobile radar data collected during VORTEX2
James Marquis, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. P. Richardson, P. M. Markowski, D. C. Dowell, J. M. Wurman, K. A. Kosiba, and P. Robinson
Manuscript (5.5 MB)

Handout (2.4 MB)

 
170
Mesoscale Data Assimilation and Verification of the Storm Environment on June 13, 2010 during VORTEX2
Therese E. Thompson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and G. Romine, C. Snyder, D. C. Dowell, L. J. Wicker, and X. Wang

 
171
EnKF Data Assimilation and Forecasts of the Goshen County, Wyoming, Supercell during VORTEX2
Timothy A. Supinie, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and Y. Jung and M. Xue

4:15 PM-5:15 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 12
Societal Factors in Severe Weather
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: John A. Knox, Univ. of Georgia
  4:15 PM
Regional Variations in Vulnerability to Tornado Outbreaks in the Eastern United States
Margaret Mae Kovach, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Chapel Hill, NC; and C. E. Konrad, C. M. Fuhrmann, and J. McLeod
  4:45 PM
Emergency warning system: Factors influencing citizen decision-making
Stephen Guillot Jr., Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN; and J. Kenkre and P. Jarvis

 
12.4
Early Findings and Results from the Central Region Impact-Based Warnings Demonstration
Peter A. Browning, NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO; and M. Hudson, K. Runk, K. Harding, K. Galluppi, J. L. Losego, B. E. Montz, and K. J. Mulder

5:40 PM-5:45 PM: Wednesday, 7 November 2012


Depart for Conference Dinner Event at the Parthenon (ticket included in full-week registration package)

Thursday, 8 November 2012

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 13
VORTEX2 Results I
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Robin L. Tanamachi, NOAA/NSSL
  8:30 AM
Observations from VORTEX2: The intensification of the Goshen County, Wyoming tornado (05 June 2009)
Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Kosiba, P. M. Markowski, Y. P. Richardson, P. Robinson, and J. Marquis
  8:45 AM
Finescale Structure of the LaGrange, Wyoming Tornado during VORTEX2: GBVTD and Photogrammetric Analyses
Phillip Stauffer, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Wakimoto, W. C. Lee, N. T. Atkins, and J. Wurman
  9:00 AM
Tornado maintenance and demise in the Goshen County, Wyoming supercell of 5 June 2009 intercepted by VORTEX2
Yvette P. Richardson, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and P. Markowski, J. N. Marquis, J. Wurman, K. A. Kosiba, P. Robinson, D. W. Burgess, and C. C. Weiss
  9:15 AM
An Assessment of Buoyancy and Baroclinity within Select VORTEX2 Storms
Christopher C. Weiss, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and D. C. Dowell, P. Skinner, and A. Reinhart
  9:30 AM
  9:45 AM
VORTEX2 Observations and Data Assimilation Experiments of the 18 May 2010 Dumas, Texas Supercell
Patrick S. Skinner, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss, L. J. Wicker, and C. K. Potvin

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 8 November 2012


Coffee Break
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 14
VORTEX2 Results II
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: James N. Marquis, Pennsylvania State Univ.
  10:30 AM
GBVTD-retrieved near-surface axisymmetric vortex structure in a tornado and tornado-like vortices observed by a W-band radar during VORTEX2
Robin L. Tanamachi, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, K. Orzel, S. J. Frasier, and M. Xue
  10:45 AM
Multi-scale analysis of the 26 May 2010 supercell observed during VORTEX2
Michael A. Bowlan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff, D. P. Betten, C. L. Ziegler, G. D. Carrie, and K. J. Thiem
  11:00 AM
High-Resolution In-Situ Verification of Simulated Supercell Cold Pools
Anthony E. Reinhart, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C. C. Weiss and D. C. Dowell
  11:15 AM
Cold pool forcing of the 9 June 2009 Greensburg, KS supercell during VORTEX2
Conrad L. Ziegler, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK ; and M. I. Biggerstaff, L. J. Wicker, D. W. Burgess, E. R. Mansell, C. M. Schwarz, P. M. Markowski, Y. P. Richardson, and C. C. Weiss

  11:30 AM
Characterizing rain drop size distributions in supercell hook echoes: results from VORTEX2
Daniel T. Dawson II, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and G. H. Bryan, G. Romine, and K. Friedrich
  11:45 AM
Drop-size distributions in thunderstorms measured by optical disdrometers during VORTEX2
Katja Friedrich, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and E. A. Kalina, F. J. Masters, and C. Lopez

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012


Break for Lunch

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 15
Evaluation of Model and Human Forecasts
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University
  1:30 PM
Diagnosing sensitivities to microphysics parameterizations in convection-allowing models using object-based time-domain diagnostics
Adam Clark, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, T. L. Jensen, R. Bullock, M. Xue, and F. Kong
  1:45 PM
Synoptic Control of Heavy-Rain-Producing Convective Training Episodes
John M. Peters, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and P. J. Roebber
  2:15 PM
Evaluating Dryline Position Errors in Convection-Allowing WRF Model Forecasts
Brice Evan Coffer, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. C. Maudlin, P. G. Veals, and A. J. Clark
  2:45 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012


Coffee Break
Location: Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012

Recording files available
Session 16
High-Resolution In-Situ and Dual-Polarization Radar Observations of Severe Storms
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Chair: Daniel T. Dawson II, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL
  3:30 PM
High-Resolution Full-Scale Observations of Thunderstorm Outflow Winds
W. Scott Gunter, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder
  3:45 PM
Mobile, phased-array, Doppler radar observations of tornadoes at X band
Michael M. French, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. B. Bluestein, I. PopStefanija, C. Baldi, and R. Bluth
  4:00 PM
Rapid-scan, polarimetric, Doppler-radar observations of an EF-5 tornado in Oklahoma on 24 May 2011
Howard Bluestein, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. C. Snyder, J. B. Houser, and A. L. Pazmany
  4:15 PM
Integrated In Situ, DOW, and damage observations in tornadoes
Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman and P. Robinson
  4:30 PM
Operational Use of Polarimetric Tornadic Debris Signatures
Thomas Johnstone, NOAA/NWSFO, Old Hickory, TN; and S. E. Nelson, L. Belanger, M. E. Anderson, K. B. Laws, B. Carcione, C. J. Schultz, and L. D. Carey

5:00 PM-5:15 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012


Session
Concluding Remarks and Awards
Location: Symphony I and II (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms
Cochairs: Michael Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL; Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL

5:15 PM-5:20 PM: Thursday, 8 November 2012


The AMS 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms Adjourns