Poster Session P8 Evaluation of Model and Human Forecasts

Wednesday, 7 November 2012: 3:00 PM-4:15 PM
Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Host: 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms

Papers:
 
119
Tornado Warning Verification by Storm Environment
Yvette P. Richardson, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. R. Dean and A. Anderson-Frey
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

 
120
Relationships between Convective Mode and Tornado Warning Probability of Detection and Lead Time
Steven E. Nelson, NOAA/NWS Forecast Office, Peachtree City, GA; and J. A. Brotzge, R. L. Thompson, and B. T. Smith

 
121
Preliminary Results of a U.S. Deep South Warm Season Deep Convective Initiation Modeling Experiment using NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for Operational National Weather Service Local Model Runs
Jeffrey M. Medlin, NOAA/NWS, Mobile, AL; and L. Wood, B. T. Zavodsky, J. L. Case, and A. L. Molthan
Manuscript (673.5 kB)

Handout (8.6 MB)

 
122
Verification of Instability Parameters over the Great Plains from RAP Model Forecast Soundings
Jennifer M. Laflin, NWS, Pleasant Hill, MO

 
123
Usefulness of Storm-Scale Model Guidance in SPC Fire Weather Events with Dry Thunder
Benjamin S. Herzog, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. J. Melick, J. S. Grams, I. L. Jirak, A. R. Dean, and S. J. Weiss
Manuscript (345.5 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

 
124
Probabilistic forecasts of severe convection with a WRF-DART analysis and convection-permitting forecast system
Logan C. Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and G. Romine, S. Tessendorf, and C. S. Schwartz

 
125
Statistical analyses of convective updraughts using radar scans and model data
Kirsty E. Hanley, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and B. Plant, T. Stein, R. Hogan, J. Nicol, E. Carter, and H. W. Lean

 
126
Tracking the three-dimensional evolution of convective storms in radar observations and high-resolution models
Thorwald Hendrik Matthias Stein, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and K. E. Hanley, R. Hogan, R. S. Plant, E. Carter, H. W. Lean, J. Nicol, C. Halliwell, and A. Macallan

 
127
Revisiting the 1976 Jordan Iowa F5 tornado: A case of subtle forcing with extreme sensitivity of WRF simulations to initial conditions
William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA
Manuscript (1.5 MB)

 
128
Examination of Storm Cell Evolution using the GTRI DBSCAN Cell Identification and Tracking Algorithm
John M. Trostel, Georgia Tech Research Institute, Atlanta, GA; and J. Reed

 
129
A Comparative Evaluation of the Effects of Two and Three Dimensional Clustering on Storm Cell Identification Performance
Jenny Reed, Georgia Tech Research Institute, Atlanta, GA; and J. M. Trostel

 
130
Evaluation of different ensemble configurations for the analysis and prediction of high-impact mesoscale convective systems
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and A. J. Clark

 
131
Skill of 1- and 4-km WRF-ARW Forecasts of Storm Mode and Motion
Michael VandenBerg, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. C. Coniglio and A. J. Clark

 
132
Evaluation of the Model MM5 Performance in an Extreme Precipitation Event and a Deeper Analysis of its Meteorological Causes
Bruno Kabke Bainy, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brazil; and M. D. S. Teixeira
Manuscript (702.6 kB)

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- Indicates an Award Winner
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