119 Tornado Warning Verification by Storm Environment

Wednesday, 7 November 2012
Symphony III and Foyer (Loews Vanderbilt Hotel)
Yvette P. Richardson, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and A. R. Dean and A. Anderson-Frey
Manuscript (1.1 MB)

The tornado warning process is an inherently difficult one in which forecasters are forced to quickly synthesize both radar and environmental information to determine tornado likelihood. Given a certain level of skill (based on observing technology as well as the current understanding of tornadic storms), there is a tradeoff between the probability of detection and the false alarm rate. However, it is likely that this skill varies based on the storm environment, with higher skill in some environments than others. In this poster, we present preliminary estimates of tornado warning skill as a function of environmental parameters. The goal is to elucidate areas of the parameter space in which research efforts to increase our understanding of tornadic processes can have the greatest impact on reducing the false alarm rate while maintaining a high probability of detection.
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