During the 2012 SFE, calibrated total severe storm probability guidance from the SPC storm-scale ensemble of opportunity (SSEO) was used to temporally disaggregate an experimental longer-period (i.e., 16Z-12Z) human forecast of total severe storm probability (i.e., unlike SPC Day 1 Convective Outlooks, which include separate probabilities for severe hail, wind, and tornadoes) over a regional domain. The general procedure involved scaling the longer-period SSEO guidance to match the human forecast, applying the scaling factor to the SSEO guidance for each individual period (i.e., 16-20Z, 20-00Z, 00-04Z, and 04-12Z), and utilizing checks to ensure consistency with the human forecast. Subjective and objective comparisons of automated individual period outlooks to forecaster-generated outlooks for identical time periods during the 2012 SFE demonstrate the effectiveness and skill of this technique in producing higher temporal resolution forecasts of total severe storm probability. The results also reveal the importance of incorporating the human longer-period forecast as input to this technique rather than depending solely on numerical model guidance.
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