Evolution of the VORTEX-2 Goshen County, Wyoming Storm on June 5, 2009 as Observed from Simulations Initialized with Real Data

Although the development of a significant, mesoscale event through numerical simulation can be enhanced via an initial forced perturbation, a simulation of this genesis lacks some value with respect to its research potential since the event's existence is not entirely attributed to the dynamics within the simulation from a physical initial condition. Therefore, a significant mesoscale disturbance as the result of inherent physical processes integrated over the duration of a nested grid, numerically simulated model initialized at some earlier point in time by observations can be studied as a more accurate representation of a physically observed meteorological process. Here, the possibility and process by which a distinct, historical, tornado-producing supercell observed in Goshen County, Wyoming on 5 June 2009 can be produced through a simulation initialized with observations from a GFS analysis 10 hours in advance is evaluated. Results show that, in fact, a supercell can be initiated in an observationally initialized simulation near the time and geographic location it was physically observed and can also produce the signature of a poorly-resolved tornado associated with the same supercell. During the presentation, the correlation between the observed and simulated storms' evolutions and their resulting tornadoes will be evaluated while also discussing the mechanisms by which the simulated tornado was initiated.