Utilizing Divergence Tendency in Forecasting Convective Initiation

Recent observations have suggested that forecasting convective initiation (CI) can be aided by analyzing the tendency of the divergence field, in addition to prior knowledge of the near-storm environment. It is theorized that increasing convergence at the surface over time could yield insight into where CI may be more likely to occur within a broad area of convergence. This study will attempt to better define divergence tendency values associated with CI. A Delaunay triangulation method is performed on stations from the Oklahoma Mesonet to generate a triangular mesh. This is used with the linear vector point function method to calculate the divergence. Three types of cases are tested: failed CI and high convective inhibition (CIN), failed CI and low CIN, and successful CI and low CIN. Future research may yield insight into how divergence tendency can be used to anticipate the individual strengthening and weakening of storms.