Global warming and hurricanes
William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
This talk will present evidence to establish the reality of the following four hypotheses:
1. The global warming we have seen in the last 30 years (~0.3°C) and the last 100 years (~0.5°C) is primarily a result of natural global climate variability resulting from a salinity induced slow-down of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC).
2. The positive water vapor feedback loop in the GCM's anthropogenic CO2 doubling experiments is incorrect. The water vapor feedback loop is negative. We should expect little human-induced global warming (~0.3°C) from a doubling of CO2.
3. Global tropical cyclone frequency and intensity is not impacted by global mean temperature changes of less than ± 0.5°C.
4. The large increase in Atlantic hurricane frequency and strength of intensity since 1995 is natural and is a result of the large increase in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The large US hurricane destruction of the last two seasons is due primarily to onshore upper-air steering currents.
Extended Abstract (468K)
Session 4C, Tropical Cyclones and Climate III - Trends
Monday, 24 April 2006, 3:30 PM-5:00 PM, Regency Grand Ballroom
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